A Study on the Effect of Quality Management Activities on Productivity

Kyung Ho Roh KINFORMS 2018 Management Review Vol.13 No.2

Companies around the world are competing to survive in the future to secure competitive advantage in the future manufacturing industry in the face of uncertainty such as the global economic crisis and the fourth industrial revolution. Leading manufacturing companies are creating new wealth by transforming manufacturing through innovations in combination with services and smart factories. This change in the business model can bring new growth opportunities through business model innovation in the hardware-oriented domestic manufacturing sector. Therefore, it is necessary for Korean companies to overcome the global economic crisis and create opportunities to preoccupy new markets and to develop strategies for the Korean economy. The government is continuously striving to support the preemptive and effective response to environmental changes at home and abroad. The Fourth Quality Management Basic Plan that we have established recently sets up a quality goal that satisfies our customers through corporate management, public organizations, and organizations through quality management and plans various tasks to establish a strategy for achieving them. In other words, the four key tasks of Building a Smart Quality Management System, Expanding the Basis for Global Quality Trends , Enhancing the Quality Innovation Capacity of Manufacturing SMEs, and Enhancing the Quality Management Infrastructure . The government has enacted a law to establish and enforce comprehensive policies on quality management every three years in order to support the efficient management of quality management. This study is to investigate the effect of quality management activities on productivity. In order to achieve this goal, the following detailed study agenda were established. First, after establishing the theoretical framework through previous research, the effect of the quality management activities of enterprises on the management performance is studied. Second, after establishing the theoretical framework through previous studies, we study the effect of the quality management activities of the enterprises on productivity. This study synthesizes the relathionship between quality management activities and productivity.

경영의사결정재량수준이 이익조정에 미치는 영향

최헌섭,이한덕,김미리 한국국제회계학회 2023 국제회계연구 Vol.- No.108

[Purpose]This paper empirically analyzes the relationship between managerial decision-making discretion and earnings management using the management decision-making discretion level measurement method of Hambrick & Abrahamson (1995). [Methodology]The sample companies are KOSPI and KOSDAQ companies operating non-financial businesses, and the analysis period is from 2000 to 2020. We perform regression analysis using discretionary current accruals and the earnings management method(Burgstahler and Dichev 1997). [Findings]First, it was found that the higher the manager's decision-making discretion level, the lower the discretionary current accrual. Second, as a result of verifying the earnings management method of Burgstahler and Dichev (1997), the higher the level of discretion in management decision-making, the higher the tendency of earnings management to avoid reporting a deficit, while the tendency to adjust earnings to avoid reporting a decrease in earnings compared to the previous year. [Implications]The higher the management decision-making discretion level, the higher the manager's interest in the social reputation and corporate value, so the possibility of the manager's abuse of accounting discretion can be reduced. Regarding the profit range, the higher the management decision-making discretion level, the stronger the manager's responsibility, so the incentive to adjust earnings to avoid a decrease in profit compared to the previous year is relatively low, while deficits that can directly affect debt financing and corporate value Regarding reporting, it suggests that the management decision-making discretion level is used to actively exercise accounting discretion to avoid reporting deficits. [연구목적]이 논문은 Hambrick & Abrahamson(1995)의 경영의사결정재량수준 측정방법을 이용하여 경영자의 의사결정재량수준과 이익조정의 관계에 대해 실증적으로 분석한다. [연구방법]표본기업은 비금융업을 영위하는 유가증권시장과 코스닥 기업을 대상으로 분석기간은 2000년부터 2020년까지이며, 기업-연도별로 39,560개의 표본을 대상으로 재량적 유동발생액 및 Burgstahler and Dichev(1997)의 이익조정 방법을 이용한 회귀분석을 한다. [연구결과]첫째, 경영자의 의사결정재량수준이 높을수록 재량적 유동발생액이 감소하는 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, Burgstahler and Dichev(1997)의 이익조정 방법을 검증한 결과는 경영의사결정재량수준이 높을수록 적자보고회피를 위한 이익조정 경향은 보다 증가하는 반면, 전기 대비 이익감소보고회피를 위한 이익조정경향은 낮아지는 반대의 결과를 보여주고 있다. [연구의 시사점]경영의사결정재량수준이 높을수록 경영자의 사회적 명성과 기업의 가치에 대한 관심도가 높아 경영자가 회계적 재량권을 남용할 가능성은 줄어들 수 있다. 이익구간과 관련하여 경영의사결정재량수준이 높을수록 경영자의 책임이 강화되어 전기대비이익감소회피를 위한 이익조정유인은 상대적으로 낮이지는 반면, 부채조달 및 기업가치에 직접적인 영향을 미칠 수 있는 적자보고에 대해서는 경영의사결정재량수준을 이용하여 회계적 재량권을 적극적으로 행사하여 적자보고를 회피하고 있음을 시사한다.

경영전략이 이익조정에 미치는 영향:경영전략과 이익조정 측정요소의 관계를 중심으로

박원,김예경 한국회계정책학회 2018 회계와 정책연구 Vol.23 No.1

[Purpose]This study divides management strategies of a company into leading strategies and defensive strategies and then tries to examine the effect of such strategic differences on earnings management. In addition, this study attempts to verify the effect of this management strategy on operating cash flow, sales cost, management cost, and production cost. [Methodology]In order to achieve the purpose of the study, 5,830(company-year) data were extracted and analyzed for listed companies, non-financial companies, which were settled in the period from 2005 to December 2016. The analysis model was verified by adding some variables based on Houqe and Monem(2013). [Findings]According to this study, there was no discriminative effect on earnings management measured by discretionary accrual according to the management strategy, but the difference in sales, management, and production costs among the real activity measures was significant. With the speculation that the difference comes from the management strategies on the actual activity factors, we analyzed the data and found that, in the case of the leading strategy, the sales and management costs were high and, in the case of the defensive strategy, the production cost was high. [Implications]The findings of this study are meaningful in that they can be used as additional research information when there have been inconsistent results of accounting studies on the management strategy and earnings management. In addition, this study can be regarded to contribute to the expansion of accounting research topics when there is lack of the accounting research on the management strategy. [연구목적]본 연구의 목적은 기업의 경영전략을 선도형 전략과 방어형 전략으로 구분하여 그러한 전략적인 차이가 이익조정에 미치는 영향을 검증하고자 하였다. 또한 이러한 경영전략에 따라 이익조정 측정치인 영업현금흐름, 판매비와 관리비, 생산원가에 차별적인 영향을 미치는지 검증하고자 하였다. [연구방법]연구목적을 달성하기 위하여 2005년부터 2016년 12월 결산법인 비금융업인 상장기업을 대상으로 총 5,830개(기업-년) 데이터를 추출하여 분석하였다. 분석모형은 Houqe and Monem(2013)을 바탕으로 일부 변수를 추가하여 검증하였다. [연구결과]분석결과 경영전략에 따라 재량적 발생으로 측정한 이익조정치에는 차별적인 영향이 없는 것으로 나타났으며 실물활동 측정치 중 판매비와 관리비, 생산원가에는 그 차별성이 유의적인 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구에서는 그러한 차이가 실물활동 이익조정을 측정하기 위한 실물활동 요소가 경영전략에 의해 차이가 있을 것으로 보고 분석을 실시한 결과 선도형 전략의 경우 판매비와 관리비 수준이 높았으며 방어형 전략의 경우 생산원가 수준이 높은 것으로 나타났다. [연구의 시사점]이러한 연구결과는 회계분야 선행연구에서 경영전략과 이익조정의 일관되지 않는 결과에 대하여 다양한 대용치의 사용으로 의미성을 찾아내었다는 점에 의미가 있을 것으로 보인다. 또한 경영전략에 대한 회계분야 연구가 부족한 것에 대하여 회계분야 연구 주제를 확대한 것에 공헌한 연구로 볼 수 있다.

경영자 이익예측과 4분기의 이익조정

고대영 ( Dae Young Ko ),안미강 ( Mi Gang Ahn ),양동재 ( Dong Jae Yang ) 한국회계학회 2013 회계저널 Vol.22 No.3

This paper examines the relationship between management earnings forecast and earnings management in the fourth quarter. We identify that firms with earnings forecast disclosure tend to increase or decrease the fourth quarter earnings for meeting their earnings forecast. When a firm faces poor performance during the first three quarters, it has incentives for inflating fourth-quarter earnings at a target level. We hypothesize that a firm performing poorly in the first three quarters may attempt to increase earnings of the fourth quarter to achieve a desired annual earnings target, while a firm performing well in the first three quarters may attempt to decrease earnings of the fourth quarter to reserve earnings for the future. To test the hypothesis, The sample consists of 2,592 firm-fourth quarters with nonbanking firms and December fiscal year traded over Korea Stock Exchange(KSE) during 2003∼2008. We classify sample firms into two groups based on management earnings forecast. the sample firms are divided on the basis of whether they voluntarily disclose earnings forecast. The firms with earnings forecast disclosure are further classified into two groups. One group is that earnings in the first three quarters exceed management earnings forecast of the same year. the other group is not to meet management earnings forecast. Our results show that the firms with earnings forecast disclosure have higher the mean of absolute discretionary accruals than the control firms(non-disclosure) in the fourth quarter. Also, the result of regression analysis shows that the firms disclosing earnings forecast tend to increase absolute discretionary accruals. These results imply that managers with earnings forecast disclosure have an incentive to actively manage the fourth quarter earnings for their reliability. In the sample with earnings forecast, we suggest that the firms are more likely to increase the fourth quarter earnings when the difference between annual earnings forecast and earnings in the first three quarters is great. These results provide that the firms that fail to achieve earnings forecast manage earnings upward and the firms that exceed earnings forecast manage earnings downward in the fourth quarter. By using quarterly data, this paper has several advantages in detecting earnings management on management earnings forecast. Quarterly data provides a sharper focus on the forecast disclosure, which could increase the likelihood of detecting earnings management. Also, financial statements for interim quarters are often unaudited, allowing greater managerial discretion and requiring less detailed disclosure than annual financial statements. These differences provide managers with greater opportunities to manage earnings and, hence, make detection of earnings management more likely in interim quarters.

복수노동조합에서의 근로자의 경영참여

이희성 원광대학교 법학연구소 2019 圓光法學 Vol.35 No.4

As of July 1, 2011, a multiple labor union system at the corporate level has been implemented in Korea. In the early stages of implementation, there were problems such as confusion in the collective bargaining order, damage to the uniformity of working conditions, and confusion in industrial sites such as power struggles and division among labor unions due to issues with the unification of bargaining windows and the duty of fair table. Some workplaces use the bargaining labor union system as a means of disabling labor unions that were in conflict with management. I believe, however, that if the fair representative duty system of the bargaining labor union is clearly and precisely applied, minority labor unions can also be guaranteed rights as many as their members. Therefore, the multiple labor union system will guarantee workers’ right to make choices while promoting workers’ overall benefits through their various participation. Today, however, technological innovations and productivity gains have resulted in an improvement in the economic and social status of workers, and employers and businesses have shifted from low-cost, high-profit to high-productivity, high-wage management policies. In the end, both labor and management recognized each other and their own social responsibilities, and avoided any unnecessary conflicting actions, resolving conflicts peacefully through rational dialogue, as much as they could. Thus, today’s changes in the world naturally spread participatory capitalism, leading to economic and industrial democracy. The result is the involvement of workers, who are key stakeholders, in the management of a company that has been regarded as the monopoly of the employer. Such workers’ participation in management involves the expansion of non-market decisions, diversification of value objectives, organizational enlargement, improvement of education level, increase of information value, development of liberal egalitarianism, strengthening social responsibility between workers and managers. The cause of this change can be found in the request for the reduction of alienation associated with dehumanization and the welfare-oriented management system. Next, the necessity is found in the internalization and reinforcement of labor unions, the demand for industrial democracy in the understated nature of collective bargaining, and the demand for rationalization of the management system. The workers’ management participation system can be divided into several parts: decision participation, capital participation, and profit participation. Among them, capital participation and profit participation are called economic democracy, and the decision-making participation belongs under industrial democracy. However, this study was carried out on the idea that the increased labor-management conflict between labor and labor unions may affect labor relations or management participation of workers. Therefore, in this paper, I would like to discuss the somewhat well achieved workers’ management participation under the current multiple labor union system, some problems that arise from workers’ management participation, and possible solutions for successfully implementing such solutions.

이익조정과 최고경영자 교체가능성의 관련성 : 생존분석을 중심으로

최종서,곽영민,백정한 韓國公認會計士會 2012 회계·세무와 감사 연구 Vol.54 No.1

Managers engage in earnings management using accounting discretions within the boundaries of GAAP. Managerial accounting discretions are sometimes intended to enhance the predictability of future cash flows or create positive influences on firm values. Other times, managers attempt to use accounting flexibilities to improve opportunistic benefits. Opportunistic earnings management activities to maximize manager's private gain tend to mitigate the reliability of accounting information, resulting in the detriments to the future value of the firm. Strong corporate governance is expected to play a role in safe-guarding the interests of various stakeholders including equity holders, who monitor and check managerial opportunism through internal control system. The purpose of this study is to investigate whether internal controls work to discipline opportunistic managerial earnings management under the Korean context. Earnings management provides a rich setting in which to examine whether internal controls work to discipline managers who engage in self-interested but potentially value-destroying activities. We examine firm-year observations selected over the period of 2001 through 2006, for which CEO's job tenure information is available. We conduct various tests to see whether earnings management during a CEO's job tenure as reflected in both absolute discretionary accruals and abnormal real activities increases the likelihood of CEO turnover. We also examine whether the connection between earnings management and the likelihood of CEO turnover differ between the voluntary and forced CEO turnover. Our main findings are as follows. First, we find that the average annual value of absolute discretionary accruals during CEO's tenure is significantly related with the increases in the probability of CEO turnover after controlling for the firm performance and corporate governance metrics. However, we do not observe significant association between the proxies of real earnings management and the likelihood of CEO turnover. These observations indicate that the managerial earnings management activities tend to trigger disciplinary actions from internal control systems, with differing degrees depending on the type of devices used for managing earnings by managers. Second, we find that absolute discretionary accrual is positively and significantly related to the hazard rate for forced CEO turnover, but insignificantly related in voluntary turnovers, which implies that the likelihood of forced CEO turnover is a function of the degree of earnings management. This basic result holds through several test specifications, including logistic regressions and competing-risks hazard models. These results suggest that extreme managerial earnings management activities provide reasons to ouster CEOs by force, a manifestation of disciplinary mechanism exercised by sound internal control system. Above results provide an empirical evidence in support of conjectures that CEO's opportunistic earnings management activities serve as one of the causes leading to forced CEO turnover. This finding contributes to the existing literature on the relationship between CEO turnover and earnings management in that it implies the causal relationships between the two constructs may be bidirectional rather than one directional. In other words, our study indicates that accounting discretion is not only used as a means for a CEO to enhance his or her personal benefits, but a sound internal control system may interpret it as a signal of managerial inefficiency. 경영자는 자신에게 허용된 회계 재량권을 이용하여 보고이익 수치를 필요에 따라 조정하는 경향이 있는 것으로 알려지고 있다. 이러한 이익의 조정은 미래 현금흐름의 예측가능성을 제고하거나 기업 가치에 긍정적인 영향을 끼치기 위해 시도되는 경우도 있으나 때로는 경영자의 사적 효익을 증대시키기 위한 목적으로 시도되기도 한다. 경영자의 사적효용 극대화 관점에서 수행된 이익조정은 기업정보에 대한 신뢰성을 저하시켜 향후 기업에 막대한 비용을 초래할 가능성을 소지하고 있어 주주 및 이해관계자 집단은 내부통제 시스템을 통해 이를 감시하고 견제한다. 본 연구는 이러한 상황인식을 전제로 하여 경영자의 자의적인 이익조정 행위가 주주 및 이해관계자 집단으로부터의 경영자에 대한 신뢰성 약화시켜 결국 경영자의 교체가능성을 증폭시키는 요인이 되는지를 검증하고자 한다. 구체적으로 2001년부터 2006년까지 경영자의 재임기간을 확인할 수 있는 표본을 이용하여 최고경영자의 재임기간 동안에의 발생액 및 실물활동에 기초한 이익조정 성향이 최고경영자의 교체가능성을 증가시키고 있는지를 생존분석(survival analysis)을 통해 검증한다. 나아가 최고경영자의 교체유형을 자발적 교체와 강제적 교체로 구분하여 교체유형에 따라 이익조정과 경영자 교체간의 관련성이 차별적으로 존재하는지에 대해서도 분석하였다. 주요한 실증분석 결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 첫째, 최고경영자의 재임기간 동안에의 재량적 발생액 절댓값의 평균과 최고경영자의 교체확률 간에 유의한 양(+)의 관련성이 관찰된 반면 실물이익조정척도와 최고경영자 교체확률 간에는 어떠한 통계적 유의성도 관찰되지 않았다. 이는 다양한 동기에서 비롯된 경영자의 이익조정 행위가 내부통제시스템의 감시와 견제 기능으로 인해 최고경영자 자신의 교체가능성을 증폭시키는 요인이 될 수 있으나 이익조정 수단에 따라 그러한 양자의 관련성에 차이가 존재함을 의미한다. 둘째, 최고경영자의 교체유형을 자발적 교체와 강제적 교체로 구분하였을 경우 이익조정과 자발적 교체확률 간에는 어떠한 유의적인 관련성도 관찰되지 않는 반면, 이익조정과 강제적 교체 간에는 교체유형을 구분하지 않았을 경우 보다 더욱 강한 양(+)의 상관관계가 존재하고 있음을 확인하였다. 이는 최고경영자의 자의적인 이익조정 행위를 기업의 이해관계자들이 부정적으로 인식함에 따라 그에 대한 문책으로 최고경영자를 강제적으로 해임하고 있음을 입증하는 결과로 해석할 수 있다. 본 연구의 결과는 최고경영자 재임기간 동안에의 이익조정이 경영자 자신의 교체가능성을 증폭시키고 있음에 대한 실증적 증거를 제공함으로써 기존연구들에서 최고경영자 교체원인으로 제시되어온 저조한 경영성과와 기업지배구조 변수 이외에도 경영자의 이익조정 행위 또한 경영자 교체의 직접적인 요인 중 하나가 될 수 있음을 시사한다. 이는 또한 외부투자자들에게 최고경영자의 교체를 경험하는 기업들의 정보 투명성에 대해 보다 신중한 자세를 견지할 것을 요구하며 투자가 이루어진 후에도 경영자의 보고이익 조정 성향을 면밀히 관찰하고 견제할 필요가 있음을 제시한다.

국내 경영혁신 활동의 핵심 성공요인 문헌 연구 - 6시그마, TQM, 린 6시그마, ERP, TPM, BPR, Project Management, System Engineering 중심으로 -

문제옥 ( Mun Jeok ),윤성필 ( Yoon Sungpil ) 한국품질경영학회 2016 품질경영학회지 Vol.44 No.3

Purpose: Existing precedent studies include success factors of individual management innovation activities constantly. However, those studies have limitations about the common key success factors of individual management innovation activities. Methods: For this study, we investigate the key success factors using literature research of the most typical management innovation activities adopted and implemented by many companies in Korea, such as 6sigma, TQM, Lean 6sigma, ERP, TPM, BPR, Project Management, System Engineering. Factors emerging repeatedly was combined into common factors and inherent factors that are necessary for the success of individual management innovation activities are designated to essential factors. Results: ‘Essential factors for Six Sigma’consist of 5 items. Black belt operating system, personnel management system linkage, the correct management of the data, perform improvement projects associated with financial performance financial result, linked to financial performance improvement project, project progress management. ‘Essential factors of TQM’ are arranged 4 items. Quality team’s independence and role, goal-setting, Quality Information System, corporate’s philosophy of quality first. ‘Essential factors of Lean Six Sigma’are the selection of value stream which is based on the customer needs and the value creation and identify the project based on the selected value in the company. ‘Essential factors of ERP’are investigated 6 items. Ongoing system maintenance and upgrades, the measurement and support of user satisfaction, the operating systems and the policies for the maintenance, IT infrastructure, change adaption condition monitoring, focusing on improving business performance. ‘Essential factors for TPM’are arranged 4 items. Motivated and energetic Bottom-Up, CEO’s recognition of the importance facility management, long term perspective of necessity and ongoing patience. ‘Essential factors for BPR’are the pursuit of change process and the staff’s sense of crisis management. ‘Essential factors for Project Management’are the strategy that reduce the risk management skills through risk management and the understanding and organized management for the project participant’s needs. ‘Essential factors for System Engineering’consist of 2 items. The first is the design for the best balanced system with pre-analysis about the compromise the cost, schedule and the performance. The second is the analysis of large problem into small problems which can solved. We have found the solution considering components of the interface through the systematic perspective. Conclusion: Common factors and essential factors presented in this study will properly help to introduce the individual management innovation activities for the each business sector and implement management innovation. After this study, new literature research that reflect new studies should accomplish steadily.

경영해고에 대한 해고 규제 법리 재검토– 대상자선정기준의 ‘합리성’과 ‘공정성’에 대한 해석을 중심으로

권혁 노동법이론실무학회 2016 노동법포럼 Vol.- No.17

“Why should I be fired?“ If there is imperious need in the management, user will be carrying out the management dismissal depending on the Labor Standards Law Article 24. At this time, we do not know concretely that Who will be fired. Dismissal subjects of management dismissal are a number of unspecified workers. Thus the selection process of the subject. is an inherent attribute. Management dismissal have inherent conflict between labor-labor. In addition, it is inherent also a need for coordination between the company and the social interests. It is very dimensional and complicated dismissal. Substantially requirement of management dismissal is imperious need requirement in the management and rationality, fairness of the subject selection standard. These two requirements have a close functional relationship with each other respectively. The need for urgent management requirements is difficult to avoid passiveness of judicial review. Because the judge is not a manager. In contrast, rationality requirement of the subject selection criteria is subject to aggressive judicial review. Judges may determine this positively. Because rationality and fairness of the subject criteria are target of a judical decision, not a manager’s decision. Criteria of the management dismissal subject must based on the need for social protection. Considering possibilities of the business interests of the users needs to be allowed exceptionally. As selection criteria of management dismissal subject, consideration of the need for social protection is important thing. Because management dismissal should not be changed to dismissal due to a hidden behavior reason. In conclusion, following management dismissal justification decision method is implausible in Korea. About the need on the tense management, It is possible ‘positive‘ judicial review and decision. They think that the judge can decide directly a unique judgment of a manager. And instead, in regard to subject selection, the interests of company is considered. Unlike this, Germany is the complete opposite. They think that about the need on the tense management, It is possible ‘passive’ judicial review and decision. And instead, in regard to subject selection, only social protection necessity is considered. The latter I think is coincide with the legal nature of management dismissal (Rechtsnatur). Management dismissal is not a dismissal to take responsibility and discipline and should not be changed to dismissal due to a hidden behavior reason.

Management Styles of Women Managers: Its Effect on Job Performance as Prime Mover to the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) Integration

Ma. Angela Josefa Gonzales Pioquinto People&Global Business Association 2016 Global Business and Finance Review Vol.21 No.2

This study aimed to explore the management styles of women managers and its effects on their job performance with the following objectives: to identify the management style of women managers in as determined by the subordinates and the women managers themselves; to know the level of performance of women managers as rated by the subordinates and the women managers themselves; to find significant differences in the ratings given by the two groups of respondents namely the women managers and subordinates; to know if there is a significant relationship between the level of performance of women managers and their management styles; and to formulate management strategies that may be proposed to enhance performance of women managers as a prime mover for the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). To pursue the objectives of this study, a questionnaire was distributed to women managers and their subordinates. Moreover, descriptive statistics such as frequency and percentage was used for the profile of women managers. Weighted mean was also used to determine the level of performance of women managers as assessed by their subordinates and to identify the most used management style. T-test and Pearson R was also utilized for computing statistical data. This study intended to propose management strategies to enhance the job performance of women managers and their subordinates. It is hopeful that these management strategies be adapted by women managers in Daet, Camarines Norte, the Philippines, and the members of the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations), which may be of help to their organizational successes. The following conclusions were obtained from the findings of the study: 1) The management style of the women managers as seen by majority of their subordinates is of the Autocratic style while the management style the women managers see themselves as possessing is the Laissez-Faire style of management. 2) The level of performance of women managers as rated by their subordinates is in the satisfactory evaluation level while as the women managers get to rate themselves in terms of their performance, they had given a straight Good result in the evaluation scale. 3) There is a significant difference on the ratings of women managers and their subordinates on the management styles of the women managers. There is also a significant difference on the ratings of women managers and their subordinates on the job performance of the women managers. 4) There is no significant relationship between the level of performance of women managers and their management styles. 5) The management strategies proposed by the researcher may substantiate and enhance the job performance of women managers in the Bicol Region, the Philippines and the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) Economic Community, into which our country is a member, and their subordinates, by being able to seek solutions to problems, foster group collaboration and camaraderie, implement strategic decisions and initiate organizational changes. Also, the focus of the proposed management strategies of the researcher that may be implemented to SME’s (Small Medium Enterprise) which is considered as the lifeblood of the economy of the member-nations of the ASEAN Economic Community.

경영자 이익예측정보가 미래 이익조정 및 미래 시장기대치 달성에 미치는 영향

김경혜 ( Kyung Hye Kim ),유승원 ( Seung Weon Yoo ),최경수 ( Kyong Soo Choi ) 한국회계학회 2014 會計學硏究 Vol.39 No.1

본 연구의 목적은 당기 경영자 이익예측정보의 정확성 및 편의가 차기 이익조정에 미치는 영향을 분석하는 것이다. 아울러, 본 연구는 당기의 경영자 이익예측 정확성과 편의가 차기 시장기대치 달성 가능성에 어떠한 영향을 미치는지 검증한다. 본 연구는 2003년 부터 2009년 말까지 공정공시를 통해 발표된 경영자 예측정보 중 영업이익에 대한 예측값을 이용하며, 구체적인 주요 가설 및 실증결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 본 연구는 당기의 경영자 이익예측 오차 또는 낙관적인 편의로 인해 시장의 사후적인 패널티가 가해지면, 경영자는 차기이익을 상향조정하여 자신이 받았던 불이익을 완화시키고자 할 것으로 예상한다. 실증분석 결과, 당기 경영자 이익예측정보의 오차 및 낙관적 편의가 증가할수록, 차기 재량적 발생액과 차기 성과대응 재량적 발생액은 증가함을 발견하였다. 둘째, 본 연구는 당기의 경영자 이익예측 오차 및 낙관적 편의에 따른 차기 이익조정이 차기의 시장기대치 달성 가능성을 높이는 방향으로 이루어지고 있음을 예상한다. 실증분석 결과, 당기경영자 이익예측정보의 정확성이 낮거나 낙관적인 편의가 증가할수록, 차기 이익에 대한 시장기대치를 달성할 가능성은 높아지는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구는 당기 경영자 이익예측정보의 오차 및 편의가 차기 이익조정에 미치는 영향을 분석함으로써, 경영자의 자발적 공시에 대한 시장의 사후적인 제재조치가 미래의 강제공시에 대한 경영자의 의사결정에도 중요한 영향을 미칠 수 있다는 시사점을 제공한다. 특히, 기존 연구는 이러한 사후조치가 향후 경영자 이익예측정보의 질을 효과적으로 높일 수 있는지에 초점을 맞추고 있는 반면, 본 연구는 강제공시 사항인 미래 이익의 질에 미치는 영향을 검토하여 그 차별적 공헌점이 있다. 또한, 당기의 경영자 이익예측 오차 및 낙관적 편의가 차기 이익조정을 야기한다는 사실은 경영자 이익예측정보에 대한 시장의 사후조치가 향후 경영자 이익예측정보의 질적 수준을 향상시키는데 제한적일 수 있다는 간접적인 증거를 제공한다. 구체적으로, 기업의 보고이익과 이익예측치가 함께 조정될 가능성이 높다는 선행연구의 결과에 기반할 때, 당기의 예측 오차와 낙관적 편의에 따른 시장의 사후적인 패널티가 차기 이익조정을 유발할 수 있다는 본 연구의 결과는, 차기의 경영자 이익예측정보 또한 왜곡될 수 있다는 사실을 간접적으로 제시하고 있다. In sum, the objective of this paper is two-fold. First, in this paper, we empirically examine the effect of current management earnings forecast accuracy and bias on next year`s earnings management. Second, we empirically investigate how the current management earnings forecasts accuracy and bias influence the probability of meeting or beating market expectation of following year. In order to properly perform the analysis, we hand collect management earnings forecasts for fiscal years 2003-2009 from Financial Supervisory Service`s Data Analysis, Retrieval and Transfer System (DART). In terms of management earnings forecasts, we focus on the operating earnings mamagement forecasts based on the number of prior literatures. The samples in order to properly examine the hypothesis 1 and 2 turned out to be 491 firm-years and the samples for the purpose of examining hypothesis 3 and 4 are 330 firm-years. Using these samples, our specific results are given as follows. First, we find that as the error or optimistic bias of current management earnings forecast increase discretionary accruals and performance matched discretionary accruals in the next year increase. In this paper, based on the prior studies, we expect that managers have incentives to manage next year`s earnings upward, when market penalties are given for the current inaccurate/optimistically biased management earnings forecast. Therefore, the systematic associations between the accuracy/optimistic bias of current management earnings forecast and next year`s earnings management are consistent with our expectations. Second, as the current management earnings forecast is less accurate or shows more optimistic bias, the probability of meeting or beating market earnings expectation of the following year becomes higher. These results indicate that manager`s income- increasing earnings management of next year which is due to current management earnings forecast error/optimistic bias, is being conducted to increase the probability of meeting or beating market earnings expectation of following year. That is, manager`s future earnings management induced by management earnings forecast error/optimistic bias is being used to enhance the probability of meeting or beating future market earnings expectation. Third, in our robustness analysis, we find that as the error or optimistic bias of current management earnings forecast increase accruals quality in the next year decreases. This result provides more insight in relation to the results of hypothesis 1 and 2. Also we show that the results of hypothesis 3 and 4 do not change even if we change the measurement of market expectation in the next year. This finding corroborates that our result is not driven by specific proxy of market expectation. Lastly, various results we mentioned above are consistent when we control the endogeneity problems. Specifically, we utilize Heckman`s two-stage regression analysis in order to lessen endogeneity issues. The result show that our results are robust after we control the endogeneity effects. This paper, by demonstrating the significant effects of current management earnings forecast accuracy or bias on next year`s earnings management, provides a new insight about the market punishment for the inaccurate or biased management earnings forecast might also influence the manager`s disclosure behavior related to future mandatory disclosure. Especially, the fact that prior researches mainly focus on the evidence whether market penalties for the current management earings forecast improve the future management earnings forecast, stresses our distinct contribution. Second, the relation between the current management earnings forecast errors/ optimistic bias and the next year`s earnings management provides an indirect evidence that the market punishment for the inaccurate or biased management earnings forecast may be limited in improving the quality of future management earnings forecast. More specifically, this is because the fact that market punishment to current management earnings forecast error and optimistic bias induces managers to manage earnings upward implies that next year`s management earnings forecast could also be distorted, given that firm`s reported earings and earnings forecast might be managed concurrently. Third, outside investors might understand better with respect to the information content in next year earnings when they incorporate the fact that current forecast error and optimistic bias affects earnings management of following year. Fourth, establishing the fact that next`s years earnings management due to current manager`s forecast error and optimistic bias increases the probability of meeting or beating market expectation of the next year, market participants may better understand regarding the probability of meeting or beating market expectation. Lastly, notwithstanding the a number of contributions we mentioned above, our sample is confined to firms which disclose the management earnings forecasts. Therefore, our sample size is relatively small in order to generalize the results. Specially, the unsignificant results regarding pessimistic bias may be due to smaller sample size.