An optimized gene expression programming model for forecasting the national CO₂ emissions in 2030 using the metaheuristic algorithms

Hong, Taehoon,Jeong, Kwangbok,Koo, Choongwan Elsevier 2018 APPLIED ENERGY Vol.228 No.-

<P><B>Abstract</B></P> <P>To cope with the approaching POST-2020 scenario, the national CO<SUB>2</SUB> emission in the building sector, which accounts for 25.5% of the total CO<SUB>2</SUB> emissions, should be managed effectively and efficiently. To do this, it is essential to forecast the national CO<SUB>2</SUB> emissions in the building sector by region. As the South Korean government does not currently do this by region, regional characteristics are rarely taken into consideration when managing the national CO<SUB>2</SUB> emissions in the building sector. Towards this end, this study developed an optimized gene expression programming model for forecasting the national CO<SUB>2</SUB> emissions in 2030 using the metaheuristic algorithms. Compared to the forecasting performance of the gene expression programming model, the forecasting performance of the optimized gene expression programming – harmony search optimization model has improved by 7.11, 2.05, and 2.06% in terms of the mean absolute error, root mean square error, and mean absolute percentage error, respectively. Various national CO<SUB>2</SUB> emissions scenarios in the building sector were established in order to better analyze the variation range of the national CO<SUB>2</SUB> emissions in the building sector. Compared to the national CO<SUB>2</SUB> emissions in 2016 (i.e., scenario 1: 41,337 ktCO<SUB>2</SUB>; scenario 2: 45,373 ktCO<SUB>2</SUB>; scenario 3: 46,024 ktCO<SUB>2</SUB>) in multi-family housing complexes, the national CO<SUB>2</SUB> emissions in 2030 (i.e., scenario 1: 37,579 ktCO<SUB>2</SUB>; scenario 2: 37,736 ktCO<SUB>2</SUB>; scenario 3: 37,754 ktCO<SUB>2</SUB>) in multi-family housing complexes are forecasted to increase by 10.00–21.91%. The developed optimized gene expression programming – harmony search optimization model will potentially be able to assist policymakers in central and local governments forecast the national CO<SUB>2</SUB> emissions in 2030. Through this, national CO<SUB>2</SUB> emission management that more closely reflects the characteristics at the regional or national level can be supported.</P> <P><B>Highlights</B></P> <P> <UL> <LI> A model was developed to forecast the national CO<SUB>2</SUB> emissions in 2030. </LI> <LI> Model was developed using gene expression programming and harmony search algorithm. </LI> <LI> The mean absolute percentage error of developed model was estimated to be 2.06%. </LI> <LI> National CO<SUB>2</SUB> emissions in 2030 is increased by 10.0–21.91% than in 2016. </LI> <LI> Developed model can help policy makers forecast the national CO<SUB>2</SUB> emissions. </LI> </UL> </P>

CO₂ emissions optimization of reinforced concrete ribbed slab by hybrid metaheuristic optimization algorithm (IDEACO)

Shima Bijari,Mojtaba Sheikhi Azqandi Techno-Press 2023 Advances in computational design Vol.8 No.4

This paper presents an optimization of the reinforced concrete ribbed slab in terms of minimum CO₂ emissions and an economic justification of the final optimal design. The design variables are six geometry variables including the slab thickness, the ribs spacing, the rib width at the lower and toper end, the depth of the rib and the bar diameter of the reinforcement, and the seventh variable defines the concrete strength. The objective function is considered to be the minimum amount of carbon dioxide gas (CO₂) emission and at the same time, the optimal design is economical. Seven significant design constraints of American Concrete Institute's Standard were considered. A robust metaheuristic optimization method called improved dolphin echolocation and ant colony optimization (IDEACO) has been used to obtain the best possible answer. At optimal design, the three most important sources of CO₂ emissions include concrete, steel reinforcement, and formwork that the contribution of them are 63.72, 32.17, and 4.11 percent respectively. Formwork, concrete, steel reinforcement, and CO₂ are the four most important sources of cost with contributions of 67.56, 19.49, 12.44, and 0.51 percent respectively. Results obtained by IDEACO show that cost and CO₂ emissions are closely related, so the presented method is a practical solution that was able to reduce the cost and CO₂ emissions simultaneously.

최적구조설계를 이용한 SRC 기둥의 CO2 배출량 평가

최세운,전지혜,이환영,김유석,박효선 한국전산구조공학회 2013 한국전산구조공학회논문집 Vol.26 No.5

최근 환경오염 문제에 대한 심각성이 대두되며 전 세계적으로 환경부하 저감을 위해 다양한 노력을 쏟고 있다. 특히 환경 저해 산업의 하나인 건설분야에서는 CO2배출량과 에너지 소비량을 줄이기 위해 활발한 연구를 진행해 왔다. 그러나 건설분야의 기존 연구들은 대부분 CO2배출량이 가장 큰 사용 및 유지관리 단계에만 집중하고 있으며, 설계단계에 대한 연구는 2D의 철근콘크리트 부재 및 구조물에 대해서만 실행되었을 정도로 초기단계이다. 사실, LCA적 관점에서 친환경적 건설산업을 이루기 위해서는 건물의 초기설계 단계에서부터 CO2배출량을 저감시키기 위한 방향으로 설계를 유도할 수 있어야 하며, 구조 엔지니어로서 환경성을 고려한 설계안을 제시할 수 있어야 한다. 그러므로 본 연구에서는 매입형 합성기둥(SRC)을 대상으로 CO2최적화 기법을 제시하였으며, 이를 통해 얻은 여러 설계단면을 이용하여 SRC기둥의 CO2배출량에 영향을 미치는 3가지 요소(① 강재 크기, ② 콘크리트 압축강도, ③ 작용 하중 크기)에 대한 영향관계를 분석하였다. Since the seriousness of environmental pollution came to the fore recently, various efforts have been made globally for the reduction of the environmental load. In particular, in the field of construction, an industry responsible for a considerable amount of pollution, studies have been actively conducted to reduce CO2 emissions and energy consumption. However, most conventional research about pollution as it relates to construction is focused on the maintenance stages where CO2 emissions are the greatest. Research related to the design stage is in its infancy, as it has only been conducted thus far on steel buildings and RC buildings. In fact, in order to achieve environmentally friendly construction considering the Life Cycle Assessment(LCA), the building design should be derived to reduce the CO2 emissions from the early building design stage, and structural engineers should be able to suggest a design plan considering its environmental friendliness. In this study, optimal structural design method for steel reinforced concrete(SRC) columns considering CO2 emissions is presented. The trends of CO2 emissions in SRC columns according to the variations of steel shapes, concrete strengths and loads are investigated.

Sustainable design model for analysis of relationships among building height, CO₂ emissions, and cost of core walls in office buildings in Korea

An, Jung Hwan,Bae, Sang Geun,Choi, Jewoo,Lee, Min Gyu,Oh, Hyung Seok,Yun, Da Yo,Lee, Dong-Eun,Park, Hyo Seon Elsevier 2019 Building and environment Vol.150 No.-

<P><B>Abstract</B></P> <P>A shear wall is a vertical member with a relatively large volume that is used frequently as a vertical passage and a lateral load support system in every building without exception. Many studies have been conducted on the sustainable design of buildings, but few have studied the sustainable design of shear walls considering CO<SUB>2</SUB> emissions. Herein, a sustainable design model for shear walls is developed to analyze the relationship between building height, CO<SUB>2</SUB> emissions, and construction cost. The model is applied to the sustainable design of shear walls installed in a 42-story mixed-use building. The characteristics in the change in CO<SUB>2</SUB> emissions and the construction cost according to the building height were analyzed using the slenderness ratio as a variable. The results indicated that as the slenderness ratio increased, the CO<SUB>2</SUB> emissions increased almost linearly in proportion to the height. In particular, when the slenderness ratio increased from 4.40 to 4.93, which is known to be the limit of the efficient applicability of shear walls, the CO<SUB>2</SUB> emissions tended to increase more rapidly. When the slenderness ratio was 4.93, the CO<SUB>2</SUB> emissions for the shear wall were reduced to 27.24% by the proposed model.</P> <P><B>Highlights</B></P> <P> <UL> <LI> CO2 emission optimization model for building with shear walls is presented. </LI> <LI> Relationships between building height and CO2 emissions as well as building height and cost of shear walls are investigated. </LI> <LI> CO2 emissions increased almost linearly in proportion to the change in building. </LI> <LI> When the slenderness ratio increased about to 5.0, CO2 emissions tended to increase more rapidly. </LI> </UL> </P>

Designing an Atmospheric Monitoring Network to Verify National CO2 Emissions

심소정,정수종,박채린,신재원,Kim Insun,반수진,임철수 한국기상학회 2024 Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences Vol.60 No.2

To achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, it is vital to prioritize climate action and monitor the progress of policies with accurate emission estimates. As CO2 emission estimates can be independently verified using atmospheric CO2 measurements, the need for optimal CO2 monitoring networks has increased. This study proposed an experimental method for designing national-scale atmospheric CO2 monitoring networks. We used gridded data for fossil fuel CO2 emissions, facilitating the selection of emission grids as potential monitoring sites. First, we determined the appropriate number of CO2 monitoring sites, which increased in proportion to the magnitude and variability of CO2 emissions within the region. Subsequently, the emission grids corresponding to the region were arranged in descending order of emissions. Grids were then selected at regular intervals as potential monitoring sites, aligning with the predetermined number of sites. This selection process ensured that monitoring sites were evenly distributed, ranging from areas with high emissions to those with lower emissions. Lastly, as a verification step to assess the suitability of this potential network, a transport model simulating meteorological conditions was employed to evaluate its coverage to detect the influence of CO2 emissions. This method was applied to South Korea, and 96 candidate monitoring sites were created. The optimal CO2 monitoring network distributed evenly across South Korea could evaluate variations in CO2 emissions. The simple monitoring network design method proposed in this study can accelerate the installation of a national CO2 monitoring network, ultimately enabling the verification of CO2 emissions and supporting climate policies.

Development of a multi-objective optimization model for determining the optimal CO₂ emissions reduction strategies for a multi-family housing complex

Jeong, Kwangbok,Hong, Taehoon,Kim, Jimin,Cho, Kyuman PERGAMON 2019 RENEWABLE AND SUSTAINABLE ENERGY REVIEWS Vol.110 No.-

<P><B>Abstract</B></P> <P>Measures to improve the building energy efficiency of deteriorated multi-family housing complexes (MFHCs) require trade-offs between economic and environmental feasibility, and therefore these aspects should be considered simultaneously. Towards this end, this study aimed to develop a multi-objective optimization model for determining the optimal CO<SUB>2</SUB> emission reduction (CER) strategies for MFHCs that can be used not only by experts but also by non-experts. This study used integrated multi-objective optimization with a genetic algorithm as an optimization methodology. The developed model, which considers the five optimization objectives (i.e., initial investment cost, net present value, savings-to-investment cost, CER, and marginal abatement cost) at the same time, can review a total of 31,200 scenarios combined with four energy saving measures (i.e., insulation, window, lighting, and shading systems). To verify the feasibility of the developed model, this study conducted a case study targeting ‘D’ MFHC in South Korea. First, the accuracy of the calibration of the energy simulation model for ‘D’ MFHC (coefficient of variation of the root mean square error: 12.84%; mean bias error: 0.39%) satisfied the criteria of ASHRAE Guideline 14; second, I8 (expanded polystyrene board - type 1 (No. 4))-L3 (LED lighting installed in louvered ceiling) and I8 (expanded polystyrene board - type 1 (No. 4)) - L4 (ceiling-mounted light) were determined to be the optimal CER strategy (integrated multi-objective optimization score: 0.2252). The developed model can help building owners make the optimal decision on green modeling by entering simple information (e.g., region, total floor area, etc.).</P> <P><B>Highlights</B></P> <P> <UL> <LI> Optimization model was developed to determine the CO<SUB>2</SUB> emissions reduction strategy. . </LI> <LI> Model considered calibration of simulation model and energy saving measures. </LI> <LI> A total of 31,200 CO<SUB>2</SUB> emission reduction scenarios were generated. </LI> <LI> Target Building can reduce the CO<SUB>2</SUB> emissions up to 13.14% through optimal strategy. </LI> <LI> Model can help building owners make the optimal decision on green remodeling. </LI> </UL> </P>

기후변화가 대형선망 고등어 어업의 최적탄소배출량에 미치는 영향분석

최종두 한국해양과학기술원 2017 Ocean and Polar Research Vol.39 No.3

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the optimal CO2 emission in the maximum economic yield (MEY), maximum sustainable yield (MSY), and open access (OA) using a bioeconomic model. The results are as follows; in the case of EMEY, EMSY, and EOA levels, CO2 emissions are estimated at 150,704,746CO2/kg, 352,211,193CO2/kg, and 301,409,492CO2/kg respectively. We show that the EMEY is more efficient than the other levels. That is, the level of EMEY signifies the optimal economic fishing usage as the most economically efficient usage for large purse seine fishery catching mackerel species. The emission of CO2 in EMEY is the lowest level. Also, the impacts of climate changes such as ocean temperature increase, ocean acidification, and the combined impact thereof show that the biomass of mackerel decreases.

CO2 emission optimization of composite floor systems with cellular beams via metaheuristics algorithms

Gabrieli Fontes Silva,Moacir Kripka,Élcio Cassimiro Alves 국제구조공학회 2024 Structural Engineering and Mechanics, An Int'l Jou Vol.89 No.5

In this study, the optimization of the composite floor system with cellular beams is investigated. The objective function is the minimization of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and the optimal solution is defined by 19 design variables for the beam’s topology, beams fabricated process, steel deck characteristics, columns. The requirements of the ultimate and serviceability state limits are considered for the composite floor system design. The program is developed within the MATLAB platform. A number of the benchmark test problems of composite floor systems with full web beams are optimized with cellular beams to verify the reduction of total CO2 emission. The optimum results are obtained by Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Bonobo Algorithm (BO). A comparison of the performance of these algorithms shows that the BO algorithm has a higher search capability and results in better solutions than PSO and GA algorithms in the optimization of the composite floor system with the cellular beams and the use of cellular beams can reduce the total CO2 emissions of the floor above 20%.

Multi-objective optimization of foundation using global-local gravitational search algorithm

Mohammad Khajehzadeh,Mohd Raihan Taha,Mahdiyeh Eslami 국제구조공학회 2014 Structural Engineering and Mechanics, An Int'l Jou Vol.50 No.3

This paper introduces a novel optimization technique based on gravitational search algorithm (GSA) for numerical optimization and multi-objective optimization of foundation. In the proposed method, achaotic time varying system is applied into the position updating equation to increase the global exploration ability and accurate local exploitation of the original algorithm. The new algorithm called global-local GSA (GLGSA) is applied for optimization of some well-known mathematical benchmark functions as well as two design examples of spread foundation. In the foundation optimization, two objective functions include total cost and CO2 emissions of the foundation subjected to geotechnical and structural requirements are considered. From environmental point of view, minimization of embedded CO2 emissions that quantifies the total amount of carbon dioxide emissions resulting from the use of materials seems necessary to include in the design criteria. The experimental results demonstrate that, the proposed GLGSA remarkably improves the accuracy, stability and efficiency of the original algorithm.

지속가능 설계법을 이용한 철근 콘크리트 기둥의 내재에너지 및 이산화탄소 배출 최적화 해석

김경환,여동훈,이상호,윤영철 한국전산구조공학회 2017 한국전산구조공학회논문집 Vol.30 No.3

This study presents a sustainable design method to optimize the embodied energy and CO2 emission complying with the design code for reinforced concrete column. The sustainable design method effectively achieves the minimization of the environmental load and energy consumption whereas the conventional design method has been mostly focused on the cost saving. Failure of reinforced concrete column exhibits compressive or tensile failure mode against an external force such as flexure and compression; thus, optimization analyses are conducted for both failure modes. For the given sections and reinforcement ratios, the optimized sections are determined by optimizing cost, embodied energy, and CO2 emission and various aspects of the sections are thoroughly investigated. The optimization analysis results show that 25% embodied energy and 55% CO2 emission can be approximately reduced by 10% increase in cost. In particular, the embodied energy and CO2 emission were more effectively reduced in the tensile failure mode rather than in the compressive failure mode. Consequently, it was proved that the sustainable design method effectively implements the concept of sustainable development in the design of reinforced concrete structure by optimizing embodied energy consumption and CO2 emission.