http://chineseinput.net/에서 pinyin(병음)방식으로 중국어를 변환할 수 있습니다.
변환된 중국어를 복사하여 사용하시면 됩니다.
Regional Projection of Future Extreme Wave Heights around Korean Peninsula
임대웅,서경덕,Nobuhito Mori 한국해양과학기술원 2013 Ocean science journal Vol.48 No.4
In this study, future changes in regional extreme wave heights around the Korean Peninsula are projected by using the results of an atmosphere general circulation model and a thirdgeneration wave model. The direct use of the model output at each grid point is not appropriate even though high resolution of 20 km is used for the models. Therefore, the model output is grouped into six regions around the Korean Peninsula. The grouping approach is reasonable in assessing climate change effects with alleviated model uncertainty. The extreme wave heights are simulated for two climate periods of 1979-2003 (present climate) and 2075-2099 (future climate). The model results are validated by comparing the simulated wave heights for the present climate with observed and hindcasted wave data. The extreme wave heights for the future climate are then projected for different seasons and in different regions. The 50-year return wave height in summer is projected to increase in most regions, especially in the high-latitude Yellow Sea and the East Sea, while the wave height in winter is projected to decrease in all the regions, especially in the East Sea.
Yang, Jung-A.,Kim, Sooyoul,Mori, Nobuhito,Mase, Hajime Elsevier 2018 Coastal engineering Vol.142 No.-
<P><B>Abstract</B></P> <P>This study assesses the long-term impact of storm surges due to typhoons around the Korean Peninsula (KP) resulting from climate change. Long-term projection is conducted based on the large ensemble experiments on so-called d4PDF for the past and +4 K future climate conditions over 5000 years by a single atmospheric global climate model developed by the Meteorological Research Institute of Japan. The use of a large ensemble is to enable one to obtain probabilistic future changes in low-frequency of extreme storm surge events. The properties of typhoons which may directly and indirectly have an effect on the KP in terms of past and future climate conditions is extracted from d4PDF. These are employed as the driving force in the projection of future storm surges around the KP. The storm surge heights (SSH) around the KP are projected to increase in the future climate except for around some areas in the south coast. The magnitude of future change of SSH varies spatially. The maximum variation was estimated to be 0.36 m (9.9%) with a 100-year return period in the west area of the southeastern coast of the KP. The locations of the areas vulnerable to storm surge shift to the north area of the western region and to the west area of the southern regions in the Korean Peninsula under the future climate. The characteristic of future change to areas where high SSHs will occur coincides with that of the typhoon tracks.</P> <P><B>Highlights</B></P> <P> <UL> <LI> The SSH are projected to increase under the future climate except for some areas in the south coast of the KP. </LI> <LI> The maximum variation was estimated to 9.9 % with the 100-year return period in the west area of the southeastern coast. </LI> <LI> The vulnerable locations to future surge shift to the north in the western region and to the east in the southern region. </LI> <LI> The characteristic of future change of the vulnerable locations to storm surge coincides with one to typhoon track. </LI> </UL> </P>