비대칭적 기업금융 규제와 외환위기

최두열(Doo-Yull Choi) 한국경제연구원 2002 규제연구 Vol.11 No.2

This paper studies the role of corporate financial regulation in the first half of the 1990s, which is here seen as one of the causes of the weak financial structure of the chaebols whose chain-reacting bankruptcies was a prelude to Korea's 1997 currency crisis. The main result of tills study shows that while corporate demand for money had been steadily increasing from the early 1990s, the corporate financial regulation system had been asymmetrically aggravated toward the direction that forced the chaebols to meet their money demands by short term and unstable financing instead of long term and stable financing. Regarding money demand, corporate financial regulations had been tightened thereby adversely affecting corporate long term financing channels (i.e bank loan, bond issues, induction of foreign capital and paid-in capital increase). While, on the other hand, short term and unstable financing channels by issuing Commercial Papers were left totally unregulated These asymmetric corporate financial regulations between short and long tenn financing forced Korean chaebols to crowd out long tenn financing in favor of short tenn financing Behind these asymmetric financial regulations lies an ad hoc conception of policy makers that simply blockading the channels of funding would prohibit concentration of financial power by chaebols. Concerning money supply, compared with the banking sector, financial regulations had been asymmetrically inclined toward favoring the non-banking sector. These asymmetric financial regulations between the banking and non-banking sectors encouraged the rapid growth of Korea's non-banking industries, which had been the main provider of short tenn and unstable corporate financing. At the same time, the banking sector, which had been the main source of long tenn and stable corporate financing, began to contract rapidly. As a result, asymmetric financial regulations replaced long tenn and stable financing capability of Korea's financial system With shOlt tenn and unstable financing capability. Behind these asymmetric regulations between non-banking and banking sectors lies opportunistic behavior of finance bureaucrats seeking to expand their boundaries of direct superintendency on non-banking sector. The asymmetric financial regulation system between short term and long term corporate financing had driven Korean chaebols to distort their financial structure by increasing short tenn and unstable financing, reducing long tenn and stable financing. With the outbreak of the Asian currency crisis, the distorted and weakened financial structure contributed seriously to the bankruptcies of several major chaebols, which led eventually to the outbreak of Korea's 1997 currency crisis.

서울시 구별 전세가의 수렴과 그 결정 요인에 관한 연구

최두열(Doo Yull Choi) 서울연구원 2012 서울도시연구 Vol.13 No.1

이슬람 금융을 활용한 선박 금융 구조화 방안 연구

최두열(Choi Doo Yull) 명지대학교 중동문제연구소 2015 중동문제연구 Vol.14 No.2

This study tries to introduce the structure of Islamic shipping finance and analyses its adaptability to Korea's shipping/ship-building industry. First, this paper finds that traditional Islamic financial instruments, like Murabaha, Istisna, Ijara (especially Ijara mausufah fi al-dhimmah), and Musharaka etc., are now being actively structured comprehensively for ship-building industry. Second, this paper analyses three actual Islamic ship-building cases to show how the Islamic financial instruments can be combined in the ship-building industry: the first case (Al-Safeena Ijara Sukuk case) is carried out by issuing sukuk; the second case (Al-Rubban NFC Shipping Fund IV) is done by making a sharia compliant fund; the third case (Brunei Gas Carrier construction case) is done by Islamic structured finance. As a practical policy implication, to use Islamic finance for Korea's shipping and ship-building industry, this paper proposes to establish the Sharia Compliant Korea Shipping Fund.

한국의 1인당 지역내총생산(GRDP)의 수렴에 대한 연구

최두열 ( Doo Yull Choi ),안시온 ( Sion An ) 한국재정정책학회 2014 財政政策論集 Vol.16 No.3

본 연구는 한국의 15개 시도별 1인당 지역내총생산(GRDP)의 추이를 Phillips and Sul(2007)에 의해서 개발된 패널 수렴 테스트 방법을 이용하여 분석함으로써 한국의 시도별 1인당 GRDP의 동태적 수렴 현상을 분석한 것이다. 분석 결과 한국의 15개 시도별 1인당 GRDP는 전체적으로는 발산하고 있으나 그룹별로 보면 2개의 그룹별로 나뉘어 수렴하고 있다. 그 수렴하는 생산액 수준에 따라 상위 생산액 그룹으로서 서울, 충남, 전남, 경북, 울산 및 경남으로 구성된 제1그룹과 하위 생산액 그룹으로서 부산, 대구, 인천, 광주, 대전, 경기, 강원, 충북, 전북 및 제주 등 10개 시도로 구성된 제2그룹으로 나뉘어 그룹 내 구성원 시도들간에는 수렴하면서 그룹간에는 발산하는 것으로 나타났다. 그룹내 구성원 시도들간의 수렴 속도는 상위 생산액 수준의 제1그룹은 높지 않으나 생산액 수준이 낮은 제2그룹은 매우 높은 것으로 나타났다. 이처럼 2개의 수렴 그룹으로 나뉘는 요인에 대하여 지역별 물적 자본(1인당 누적 설비투자액)과 인적 자본(1인당 교육연수)을 설명 변수로 사용하여 분석한 결과 인적 자본 보다는 물적 자본에 해당하는 지역별 1인당 누적 설비투자액 규모가 유의한 것으로 나타났다. 이 결과는 기존의 지역균형개발 전략하에서는 지역간 GRDP 격차는 확대될 것이므로 지역간 균형발전을 위해서는 저소득 시도 그룹에 대하여 설비투자액을 증가시키기 위한 보다 근본적인 정책변화가 필요함을 시사하고 있다. This study is to investigate the long run convergence behavior of the per capita GRDP of 15 provinces of Korea, by using the Phillips and Sul (2007)``s newly developed log convergence test method. The empirical result shows that the 15 provinces of Korea converge in two different groups according to the level of per capita GRDP. The 1st group is composed of 5 provinces - Seoul, Chungnam, Jeonam, Kyungbuk and Ulsan-Kyungnam and the 2nd group is composed of 10 provinces, such as Pusan, Daegu, Incheon,Kwangju, Daejeon, Kyunggi, Kangwon, Chungbuk, Jeonbuk and Jeju. About the speed of convergence among the member provinces within the group, the 2nd group has higher than the 1st group. By using multinomial logit regression, the main reason of this group convergence is analyzed as the difference among provinces in equipment investments(proxied by per capita cumulative investment) rather than the per capita human capital (proxied by years of schooling) in the region.

우리나라 지역별 제조업 생산성에 대한 연구 - 충남지역을 중심으로 -

최두열 ( Doo Yull Choi ),박승록 ( Seung Rok Park ),조유리 ( Yoo Ri Cho ) 한국생산성학회 2016 生産性論集 Vol.30 No.3

This study investigates into the regional total factor productivities movements in Korea, with a special focus on Chungnam province. The main findings of this study can be summarized as follows. First, when we set the average level of total factor productivity of provinces of Korea’s manufacturing sectors as 1.00, then the relative productivity of Chungnam turns out to be 1.00, which is exactly the same as the average level(1.00). If we subdivide the manufacturing sector into 24 sub categories, then Chungnam’s productivity shows relatively higher level than other provinces in Pharmaceuticals·Medicinal·Chemicals(1.14), Other Manufacturing(1.11), Electrical Equipment(1.09), Leather·Luggage·Footwear(1.08), Other Machinery and Equipment(1.07) etc. However, it shows relatively lower levels in Textiles(0.88), Chemicals·Chemical Products(0.97), Basic Metal Products(0.89), and Medical·Precision·Optical Instruments. Second, we can find the productivity level of Chungnam has increased sharply from 0.88 in 1999 to 1.00 in 2014, following Daejeon, Kangwon, Kwangju and Seoul. However, the sharp increase of productivity of Chungnam seems to be stagnated since 2010. We infer the sharp increase of productivity of Chungnam until 2009 due to the productivity increase in Printing, Coke and Refined Petroleum Products, Chemicals and Chemical Products, Pharmaceuticals and Medicinal Chemical, Other Non-Metallic Mineral Products, Electronic Components and Products, Electrical Equipments etc. However, the stagnation of productivity since 2010 seems to be due to the productivity standing still of the above high productivity growth sectors and the productivity decline of the Leather·Luggage Footwear·Other Non-Metallic Mineral Products, Medical Precision and Optical Instruments etc. Third, we can hardly find any significant evidence of technical efficiency differences among the regions, even if we estimated them by various methodologies such as stochastic production frontier analysis, Malmquist productivity index decomposition analysis etc. This seems to be due to the fact that same company operates in different regions by its branches and as a highly centralized and small country, even with provincial government system, the institution and business environment of each province is hardly different in individual regions in Korea. This phenomenon appears to be more deepening in recent years.

국제사회 ; 한국의 도시별 집세의 수렴화 현상에 대한 연구

최두열 ( Doo Yull Choi ) 국제지역학회 2011 국제지역연구 Vol.15 No.1

본 논문은 Phillips and Sul(2007)에 의해서 개발된 패널 수렴 테스트 방법을 이용하여 한국 21개 도시의 소비자 물가지수 중 집세 지수를 분석함으로써 지역별 집세의 동태적 수렴화 현상을 분석한 것이다. 분석 결과 한국의 21개 도시의 집세는 4개의 그룹별로 수렴하고 있으며 그 수렴 수준에 따라 수도권을 중심으로 한 제1그룹과 부천 등의 제2그룹 및 부산 대구 등의 제3그룹 그리고 청주 전주 목포 등의 제4그룹으로 나뉘어 수렴한다. 그룹에 소속된 도시들의 수렴 속도는 수도권을 중심으로하는 제1그룹, 제4그룹, 제2그룹 제3그룹의 순서로 나타났는데 이는 집세 수렴수준이 높은 제1그룹과 수렴수준이 낮은 제4그룹간에 집세의 양극화 현상이 빠르게 나타나고 있는 것을 보여주는 것이다. 이처럼 도시별로 집세지수가 수렴하며 지역별로 양극화하고 있다는 결과는 향후 세제 및 주택 정책에 반영하여 지역별 소득 격차 완화에 사용할 수 있음을 제시하였다. This study is to investigate the long run convergence behavior of the housing rent of Korean 21 cities, by using the Phillips and Sul (2007)`s newly developed panel convergence test method. The empirical result shows that the 21 Korean cities nationwide converge in four different groups according to the level of convergence. The 1st group is composed of 3 Seoul metropolitan cities, the 2nd group is composed of Bucheon, the 3rd group is composed of 10 cities such as Busan, Daegu, etc, and the 4th group is composed of 7 cities including Jeonju and Mokpo etc. About the speed of convergence among the member cities within the group, the 1st group has the highest speed and next the 4th group, followed by the 2nd group, and finally the 3rd group. The fact that the member cities of the 1st group with the highest rent level and the 4th group with the lowest rent level converges rapidly means the polarization of rent between the two groups. Finally, this paper suggests policy implications to relax the widening gap of individual income between the higher and the lower rent convergent groups.

한국의 지역별 소득 수렴에 대한 연구

최두열(Doo Yull Choi),안시온(Si on An) 한국지역개발학회 2014 한국지역개발학회 세미나 논문집 Vol.2014 No.1

본 논문은 한국의 15개 시도별 1인당 국민 소득의 추이를 Phillips and Sul(2007)에 의해서 개발된 패널 수렴 테스트 방법을 이용하여 분석함으로써 한국의 시도별 1인당 국민소득의 동태적 수렴 현상을 분석한 것이다. 분석 결과 한국의 15개 시도별 1인당 소득은 전체적으로는 발산하고 있으나 그룹별로 보면 2개의 그룹별로 나뉘어 수렴하고 있다. 그 수렴하는 소득 수준에 따라 상위 소득 그룹으로서 서울 충남 전남 경북 울산 및 경남으로 구성된 제1그룹과 하위 소득 그룹으로서 부산 대구 인천 광주대전 경기 강원 충북 전북 제주 등 10 시도로 구성된 제2그룹으로 나뉘어 그룹 내 구성원 시도들끼리는 수렴하면서 그룹끼리는 발산하는 것으로 나타났다. 그룹 내 구성원 시도들끼리의 수렴 속도는 상위 소득 수준의 제1그룹의 수렴 속도는 높지 않으나 소득 수준이 낮은 제2그룹은 매우 높은 것으로 나타났다. 이처럼 2개의 수렴그룹으로 나뉘는 주된 이유는 지역별 1인당 누적 설비투자액 규모의 차이에 기인하는 것으로 분석되었다. 이 결과는 기존의 지역 균형 개발 전략하에서 지역간 소득 격차는 확대될 것이므로 지역간 균형발전을 위하여는 저소득 시도 그룹에 대하여 설비투자액을 증가시키기 위한 보다 근본적인 정책변화가 필요함을 시사하고 있다. This study is to investigate the long run convergence behavior of the per capita GDP of 15 provinces of Korea, by using the Phillips and Sul (2007) s newly developed log t convergence test method. The empirical result shows that the 15 provinces of Korea converge in two different groups according to the level of per capita GDP. The 1st group is composed of 5 provinces Seoul, Chungnam, Jeonam, Kyungbuk, Ulsan-Kyungnam and the 2nd group is composed of 10 provinces, such as Pusan, Daegu, Incheon, Kwangju, Daejeon, Kyunggi, Kangwon, Chungbuk, Jeonbuk, Jeju. About the speed of convergence among the member provinces within the group, the 2nd group has higher than the 1st group. By using multinomial logit regression, the main reason of this group convergence is analyzed as the difference among provinces in per capita cumulative investment in the region.

한라그룹 구조조정 성공 사례

최두열(Doo Yull Choi) 한국경영학회 2006 Korea Business Review Vol.9 No.2

본 연구는 IMF 당시 부도를 맞이하였으나 다른 부도 대기업 집단과는 달리 조기에 구조조정에 성공한 한라그룹 구조조정 과정에 대한 사례 분석이다. Rothschild Restructuring Program에 따라 한라그룹은 계열사 상호간 연결 고리를 끊기 위하여 채권단이 그룹 계열사간의 상호지급보증과 관련된 부채를 대폭 삭감해주는 대신 한라그룹은 나머지 부채를 신속하게 외자를 도입하여 일시에 상환해주는 `현가화변제방식` 방식을 사용하여 서로 얽혀 있는 계열사들을 조기에 분리하였다. 분리된 계열사들을 대상으로 경영권 유지를 포기한 구경영진이 구조조정에 있어서 강력한 주도권을 행사하면서 M&A 방식으로 외국의 유수한 전략적 투자자 및 금융 투자자들에게 기업을 매각하여 채무를 상환함에 따라 그룹은 해체되었으나 계열사들은 조기에 구조조정에 성공할 수 있었다. 이 과정이 제시하는 정책적 시사점은 대기업집단 구조조정시에 외자유치를 통한 `현가화변제방식`이 효율적 방식이라는 점과 DIP에 의한 구조조정 시스템이 한국적 현실에서 효과적일 수 있다는 점이다. This study is about the corporate restructuring of Korea`s twelfth largest chaebol Halla Group, which was capsized into bankruptcy in the wake of 1997 currency, but unlike other several bankrupt chaebols, had succeeded in speedy restructuring. Halla Group had employed the so called creative two step Rothschild Restructuring Program; first step was to separate the cross guaranteed affiliated firms from each other by steep discounts and paying back the outstanding debt by bridge financing, second step was to sell the newly freed affiliates to the foreign investors and using the proceeds to pay off the bridge loan. Instead of court nominated trustee, the ex-management of Halla Group, had exercised powerful leadership through the whole restructuring process. The policy implication of the restructuring of Halla Group is that in Korea`s bankrupt chaebol restructuring, the Rothschild Restructuring Programs can be a good reference, and the debtor itself can be a good candidate as the trustee in corporate restructuring.

아시아 외환위기의 발생과정과 원인

최두열(Doo-Yull Choi) 한국경제연구원 1998 한국경제연구원 연구보고서 Vol.1998 No.-

This study is to explain the development processes and causes of the Asian currency crisis. To this end, the 'weak link framework' has been devised. This framework can be seen as being similar to the snapping of a chain at the weakest link due to a tightening and shock. Applying this weak link framework to the Asian currency crisis, 'the macro economic tensions' in East Asian countries have been caused by a change of intraregional trade specialization patterns and the massive inflow of capital into this region. The 'weakest sectors of the economy' in East Asian countries have been formed during the financial and capital account liberalization. Due to unbalanced regulations and poor financial supervision in the Asian countries, the 'weakest link' that has been formed can be seen as being the non bank financial institutions. Examples include Jusens in Japan, Finance Companies in Thailand and the Merchant Banking Corporations in Korea. The 'sudden shock' as applied to the Asian countries can be likened to the speculative attacks of the hedge funds. Another important factor for some of the Asian countries that caused the sudden shocks was the contagion effect that the currency crisis had. The difference between the Korean currency crisis and the South East Asian currency crisis is that the deterioration of the South East Asian financial system was caused by the bursting of asset bubbles, while that of Korea was due to a number of firms going bankrupt However, despite these differences between the two, the leading reason for the asset bubble formation in the East Asian countries and the bankruptcies m Korea was because of an inflow of capital, which resulted in the over liquidity and appreciation of domestic currencies. This lead to the formation of asset bubbles in some East Asian countries in one hand and the loss of external competitiveness for Korean firms on the other hand. In short, the Asian currency crisis owes a lot to the financial and capital account liberalization of the Asian countries, combined with inflow of capital and poor preparations of the host countries. These Asian countries had poor financial institutions and infrastructures and so could not deal properly with the financial and capital account liberalization. Carrying out the liberalization resulted in macro economic tensions, as well as creating the 'weak links' in the 'chain' of the economy. With these tensions and weak links, the Asian economies were drawn into the currency crisis by outside shocks that can be represented by the hedge fund's attacks and contagion effects. The actual form of the currency crisis has been the withdrawal of foreign capital from the weak financial system, which has been made worse by the insolvent non banking sector of the Asian economies.

충북지역 주택담보대출, 주택가격과 경기의 관계에 관한 연구

최두열(Doo Yull Choi),박승록(Seung Rok Park),김태섭(Tae-Sup Kim) 한국산업경제학회 2015 산업경제연구 Vol.28 No.4

본 연구에서는 충북지역의 소비자물가로 조정된 주택가격, 주택담보대출(또는 가계대출), 제조업생산지수와 불변가격 대형소매점 판매액지수(소비), 그리고 실질이자율에 대한 월간자료를 이용하여 벡터자기회귀모형을 구성하고 충격반응함수를 통해 그 인과관계를 살펴보았다. 분석결과, 첫째 충북지역의 주택담보대출 증가는 주택가격을 증가시키는 요인으로 작용하지 않고 있으며, 소비를 축소시키는 요인으로도 작용하지 않고 있는 것으로 분석되었다. 둘째 충북지역의 주택가격 상승은 주택담보대출을 적어도 1년까지 증가시키고, 20개월 동안 주택가격의 상승을 초래하는 것으로 분석되었으나, 소비에는 큰 영향을 미치지 못하는 것으로 나타났다. 셋째 제조업생산 증가나 소비의 증가는 주택가격 상승이나 주택담보대출에 확실한 영향을 미치지는 못하는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 분석결과는 주택담보대출 대신 가계대출 시계열 자료를 이용해서도 마찬가지였다. 본 고의 분석결과를 통해 다음과 같은 세 가지 시사점을 얻을 수 있다. 우선, 충북지역에서 주택담보대출이 증가한다고 하더라도 주택거래 증가를 통해 주택가격 상승을 견인할 것으로 기대하기 어렵다. 또한, 충북지역의 경우 최근의 가계대출의 증가가 아직은 원리금 상환부담 증가에 따른 소비제약요인으로 작용하지 않고 있지 않다. 마지막으로 충북지역을 대상으로 한 본 연구의 결과가 기존의 전국을 대상으로 한 연구결과와 다르다는 것은 정책당국 등에서 가계부채 문제를 접근함에 있어서 지역별 차이를 감안할 필요성이 있음을 말해준다. This study aims to analyze the relationship between house price, housing mortgage loan, production, consumption and interest rates in Chungbuk province using Vector Auto Regression Model. Our estimation results show below findings. First, increase in housing mortgage loan scarcely increases house price level in the region. Neither does it hardly affect the regional consumption. Second, increase in house price leads to the increase of housing mortgage loan at least 1 year, and also results in price increase in itself at least 20 consecutive months. However, it does not seem to affect consumption. Thirdly, increase in production or consumption in the region turns out not to have any significant effect on the increase in house price or housing mortgage loan. We get similar results by using household loan instead of housing mortgage loan. The implication of these findings is that in Chungbuk province, simply increasing housing mortgage loan by relaxing the lending regulation of financial institutions does not guarantee boosting the regional economy. The inconsistent results between the existing researches on the whole country and this study that focuses only on Chungbuk province imply that policy makers need to approach household mortgage loan problems on a region by region basis.