실시간 홍수예측을 위한 확산형 모형에 관한 연구

배덕효 國立 昌原大學校 産業技術硏究所 1996 産技硏論文集 Vol.10 No.-

The subjective research attempts to develop a state-space form of diffusion-wave channel routing model that can be applicable on a natural channel for the real-time flow forecasting and to test the model performances with various different model options such as deterministic or stochastic, linear or nonlinear routing. The selected area is the main Han River starting from the Paldang Dam site to the Indogyo station passing through the city of Seoul. It is concluded that the developed model is feasible and produces reliable forecast system on the study area.

Intensified hydroclimatic regime in Korean basins under 1.5 and 2°C global warming

Kim, Jeong‐,Bae,Im, Eun‐,Soon,Bae, Deg‐,Hyo Wiley 2020 International Journal of Climatology Vol. No.

<P><B>Abstract</B></P><P>This study assesses the potential changes in regional hydroclimates over South Korea in response to 1.5 and 2.0°C of global warming above preindustrial levels based on multimodel ensemble projections forced by a representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5) scenario. The meteorological inputs, which are derived from five global climate models after removing systematic bias using quantile mapping, are fed into a distributed hydrological model, the variable infiltration capacity model, to estimate the hydrologic responses to different levels of greenhouse gas concentrations in future periods. The changes in seasonal mean precipitation differ between monsoon and intermonsoon seasons. An increase in summer precipitation and a decrease in winter precipitation commonly occur under 1.5 and 2.0°C of global warming, resulting in intensified precipitation seasonality. However, changes in spring and fall precipitation show opposite change signals or relatively little robustness (as measured by model agreement) in response to different degrees of warming. Spatial and seasonal changes in precipitation are directly transferred to runoff patterns, increasing the disparity between wet and dry seasons. Global warming also leads to changes in the distributions of daily precipitation and streamflow, and the projected changes systematically involve an increase in high‐intensity precipitation and a decrease in relatively low‐intensity precipitation. This behaviour tends to be amplified under 2.0°C in comparison to 1.5°C of global warming, with potential implications for increased water stress under a much warmer climate. More importantly, under 2.0°C of global warming, the magnitude of extremes such as the annual maximum day flow in Korean basins is likely to be enhanced. This study demonstrates that changes in precipitation characteristics can explicitly modulate runoff and subsequently streamflow patterns, suggesting positive benefits of half a degree less warming in terms of the frequency and intensity of extreme streamflow.</P>

Monthly dam inflow forecasts using weather forecasting information and neuro-fuzzy technique

BAE, DEG-HYO,JEONG, DAE MYUNG,KIM, GWANGSEOB Informa UK (TaylorFrancis) 2007 Hydrological sciences journal Vol.52 No.1

Rainfall Estimation for Hydrologic Applications

Bae, Deg-Hyo,Georgakakos, K.P.,Rajagopal, R. Korea Water Resources Association 1996 Korean journal of hydrosciences Vol.7 No.-

The subject of the paper is the selection of the number and location of raingauge stations among existing ones for the computation of mean areal precipitation and for use as input of real-time flow prediction models. The weighted average method developed by National Weather Service was used to compute MAP over the Boone River basin in Iowa with a 40 year daily data set. Two different searching methods were used to find local optimal solutions. An operational rainfall-runoff model was used to determine the optimal location and number of stations for flow prediction.

A PRELIMINARY STUDY FOR THE COUPLED ATMOSPHERS-STREAMFLOW MODELING IN KOREA

Bae, Deg-Hyo,Chung, Jun-Seok,Kwon, Won-Tae Korea Water Resources Association 2000 Water engineering research Vol.1 No.1

This study presents some results of a preliminary study for the coupled precipitation and river flow prediction system. The model system in based on three numerical models, Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation model for generating atmospheric variables. Soil-Plant-Snow model for computing interactions within soil-canopy-snow system as well as the energy and water exchange between the atmosphere and underlying surfaces, and TOPMODEL for simulating stream flow, subsurface flow, and water tabled depth in an watershed. The selected study area is the 2,703 $\alpha_4$ $\km_2$ Soyang River basin with outlet at Soyang dam site. In addition to providing the results of rainfall and stream flow predictions, some results of DEM and GIS application are presented. It is obvious that the accurate river flow predictions are highly dependant on the accurate predictation predictions.

Long-term trend of precipitation and runoff in Korean river basins

Bae, Deg-Hyo,Jung, Il-Won,Chang, Heejun John Wiley Sons, Ltd. 2008 Hydrological processes Vol.22 No.14

<P>The spatial and temporal variations of precipitation and runoff for 139 basins in South Korea were investigated for 34 years (1968–2001). The Precipitation-Runoff Modelling System (PRMS) was selected for the assessment of basin hydrologic response to varying climates and physiology. A non-parametric Mann–Kendall's test and regression analysis are used to detect trends in annual, seasonal, and monthly precipitation and runoff, while Moran's I is adapted to determine the degree of spatial dependence in runoff trend among the basins. The results indicated that the long-term trends in annual precipitation and runoff were increased in northern regions and decreased in south-western regions of the study area during the study period. The non-parametric Mann–Kendall test showed that spring streamflow was decreasing, while summer streamflow was increasing. April precipitation decreased between 15% and 74% for basins located in south-western part of the Korean peninsula. June precipitation increased between 18% and 180% for the majority of the basins. Trends in seasonal and monthly streamflow show similar patterns compared to trends in precipitation. Decreases in spring runoff are associated with decreases in spring precipitation which, accompanied by rising temperatures, are responsible for reducing soil moisture. The regional patterns of precipitation and runoff changes show a strong to moderate positive spatial autocorrelation, suggesting that there is a high potential for severe spring drought and summer flooding in some parts of Korea if these trends continue in the future. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.</P>

Uncertainty estimation of the SURR model parameters and input data for the Imjin River basin using the GLUE method

Bae, Deg-Hyo,Trinh, Ha Linh,Nguyen, Hoang Minh Elsevier 2018 JOURNAL OF HYDRO-ENVIRONMENT RESEARCH Vol.20 No.-

<P>This study investigated the flow simulation uncertainty caused by the model parameters and input data for the Imjin River basin using the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) method and the Sejong University rainfall-runoff (SURR) model for four events during 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010. Based on the nonsystematic errors caused by the rainfall interpolation process, the input uncertainty was estimated and compared with the model parameter uncertainty for the regions with different data information situations. The reasons for the high or low uncertainty of the model parameters and input were also analyzed. Two indices were used to examine the uncertainty of the streamflow simulation: the ratio of the number of observations falling inside the uncertainty interval (p - factor) and the width of the uncertainty interval (r - factor). The results indicated that the uncertainty of the streamflow simulation of the northern area (Gunnam station) was significantly higher than that of the southern areas (Jeonkok and Jeogseong stations) for both model parameter and input uncertainty. In the southern areas, the parameter uncertainty was higher than the input uncertainty. However, the northern area exhibited the opposite trend, with the former being lower than the latter. Additionally, the uncertainty was also shown in the time of the hydrograph. The uncertainty at the peak flow was higher than that at the beginning or the end of each event.</P>

도시유역에서의 레이더 강수 추정

배덕효(Deg-Hyo Bae) 대한토목학회 2005 대한토목학회지 Vol.53 No.9

한반도·동아시아 지역의 실시간 가뭄 감시 및 전망 시스템 개발

배덕효(Deg-Hyo Bae),손경환(Kyung-Hwan Son),안중배(Joong-Bae Ahn),홍자영(Ja-Young Hong),김광섭(Gwang-Soeb Kim),정준석(Jun-Seok Chung),정의석(Ui-Seok Jung),김종군(Jong-Khun Kim) 한국기상학회 2012 대기 Vol.22 No.2

The objectives of this study are to develop a real-time drought monitoring and prediction system on the East Asia domain and to evaluate the performance of the system by using past historical drought records. The system is mainly composed of two parts: drought monitoring for providing current drought indices with meteorological and hydrological conditions; drought outlooks for suggesting future drought indices and future hydrometeorological conditions. Both parts represent the drought conditions on the East Asia domain (latitude 21.15~50.15o, longitude 104.40~149.65o), Korea domain (latitude 30.40~43.15o, longitude 118.65~135.65o) and South Korea domain (latitude 30.40~43.15o, longitude 118.65~135.65o), respectively. The observed meteorological data from ASOS (Automated Surface Observing System) and AWS (Automatic Weather System) of KMA (Korean Meteorological Administration) and model-driven hydrological data from LSM (Land Surface model) are used for the real-time drought monitoring, while the monthly and seasonal weather forecast information from UM (Unified Model) of KMA are utilized for drought outlooks. For the evaluation of the system, past historical drought records occurred in Korea are surveyed and are compared with the application results of the system. The results demonstrated that the selected drought indices such as KMA drought index, SPI (3), SPI (6), PDSI, SRI and SSI are reasonable, especially, the performance of SRI and SSI provides higher accuracy that the others.

수문관측 기반의 청계천 홍수예측모델 구축

배덕효(Bae Deg-Hyo),정창삼(Jeong Chang Sam),윤성심(Yoon Seong Sim) 대한토목학회 2008 대한토목학회논문집 B Vol.28 No.6B

본 연구의 목적은 도시하천으로 복원된 청계천유역에 대해 수문관측기반의 홍수예측모델을 제시하고, 실측자료를 통해 모형의 적용성을 검토하는데 있다. 본 연구의 적용대상지역인 청계천유역은 본류하천 좌우측에 연결되어 있는 수문열림과 저수호안의 침수발생이 인명대피의 기준이 되는 유역 고유의 특성을 가지고 있으며, 2006년 이후 본류하천의 5개 지점에서 수위 및 유량을 측정하고 있으며, 이와 동시에 강우에 따른 수문열림 및 저수호안 침수시간을 측정하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 2006년 실측자료를 이용하여 10분 최대강우강도에 따른 수문열림과 저수호안 침수시간에 대한 모형을 개발하고, 2007년 실측자료를 이용하여 개발된 모형의 적절성을 검토하였다. 그 결과 모형의 결정계수는 0.57-0.75 범위로 나타났으며, 이는 적용대상지역의 복잡성과 개발모형의 단순성을 고려할 때 적합한 것으로 나타났다. 그러나 모형의 정확도 향상을 위해서는 지속적인 관측을 통해 개발모형을 보완하여야 할 것으로 판단된다. The objectives of this study are to provide an observation-based urban flood prediction model and to evaluate their performance on a restored Cheonggye stream. The study area, which has its own unique hydrologic and flooding conditions that can be characterized the standard of flood occurrence by watergate opening and walk lane inundation, measured stream discharges at the 5 sites and watergate opening and walk lane inundation through the main stream since 2006. Tills study derived the relationship between precipitation intensity and watergate opening and walk lane inundation time by using the observations of 2006 and verified their performance on 2007 flood events. The result showed that the coefficients of determination are ranged on 0.57-0.75, which would be acceptable if considering the complexity of the area and the proposed model simplicity. It also suggested the continuous observation of these properties is required for further improvement of the models.