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The Second Bush Administration and North Korea
Hajime Izumie 통일연구원 2005 International journal of korean unification studie Vol.14 No.1
We cannot neglect the fact that already a year has gone past since the previous session of the Six-Party Talks. Because of North Korea’s continued refusal to participate in a fourth session, the onetime momentum of the Six-Party Talks naturally has vanished. The U.S. tolerance might have come close on its limit, but even that Bush administration has no intention whatever of putting an end to the Six-Party Talks at present. No progress in real terms can be expected even if Pyongyang accepted holding a fourth session. Thus the negotiation may roll back into exactly the same state in which it had started. It is hard to imagine the United States would engage itself in direct talks with North Korea. The Bush Administration also would not take drastic measures, such as using military strength or carrying out economic sanctions, until Iraq at the very least becomes politically stable. While asking China to put pressure, the United States, within this year, will not be going to send the stalemated North Korean problem to the UN Security Council. However, North Korea will push nuclear development forward quietly under the closed environment, if the status quo continues.G? We cannot neglect the fact that already a year has gone past since the previous session of the Six-Party Talks. Because of North Korea’s continued refusal to participate in a fourth session, the onetime momentum of the Six-Party Talks naturally has vanished. The U.S. tolerance might have come close on its limit, but even that Bush administration has no intention whatever of putting an end to the Six-Party Talks at present. No progress in real terms can be expected even if Pyongyang accepted holding a fourth session. Thus the negotiation may roll back into exactly the same state in which it had started. It is hard to imagine the United States would engage itself in direct talks with North Korea. The Bush Administration also would not take drastic measures, such as using military strength or carrying out economic sanctions, until Iraq at the very least becomes politically stable. While asking China to put pressure, the United States, within this year, will not be going to send the stalemated North Korean problem to the UN Security Council. However, North Korea will push nuclear development forward quietly under the closed environment, if the status quo continues.G?
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A Japanese View on Korean Security after the North-South Summit
( Hajime Izumi ) 한국국방연구원 2000 The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis Vol.12 No.2
The Korean peninsula has experienced earthshaking developments in the past six months, mainly owing to changes in North Korea. As marked by the inter-Korea summit, North Korea began to move towards relaxation of tensions and rapprochement. If these tendencies continue in the future, we can expect that the security of the Korean peninsula will be ensured and eventually a permanent peace be realized. At present, however, there is no guarantee for that. The following sections include not only a review of North Korean changes in the previous year, but calculations of its moves for this year and desired Japanese responses to them. To seek a way of inducing North Korea to choose the course of relaxing military tension is another objective of this article.
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