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청소년 스마트폰 중독자 예측 및 회복 프로그램에 관한 연구
정관용 ( Kwan Yong Jeong ),변상해 ( Sang Hae Byun ) 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2015 한국시스템다이내믹스 연구 Vol.16 No.3
This study aims to forecast of the number of smart phone addicted youths and to evaluate the effect of rehabilitation programs. A system dynamics model is developed to describe the processes of addiction and transits between phases as well as the diffusion of smart phones. The youths are grouped into non users, general users, potential risky users, and high risky users. The model utilizes the population distributions over ages for the next 30 years forecasted by Korean Government. The number of youths decreases for the next decade or so, and the number of youths who owns smart phone will reach maximum at 2017. As for the rehabilitation programs, the model includes the preventive education for general users, counseling for potential risky users, and professional therapy for high risky users. The preventive education restricts the transit from general users to potential risky users. Counseling increases the transit from potential risky users to general users while it decreases the transit to high risky users. Professional therapy improves transit to potential risky users and to general users. Although the model cannot be validated the accuracy owing to the lack of data, it describes these transit within the reasonable ranges and can be used to study the allocation of the limited resources to maximize the outcome.
시스템다이내믹스를 활용한 종합 주가지수 예측 모델 연구
조강래 ( Kang Rae Cho ),정관용 ( Kwan Yong Jeong ) 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2007 한국시스템다이내믹스 연구 Vol.8 No.2
Stock market volatility largely depends on firms` value and growth opportunities. However, with the globalization of world economy, the effect of the synchronization in major countries is gaining its importance. Also, domestically, the business cycle and cash market of the country are additional factors needed to be considered. The main purpose of this research is to attest the application and usefulness of System Dynamics as a general stock market forecasting tool. Throughout this research, System Dynamics suggests a conceptual model for forecasting a KOSPI(Korea Composite Stock Price Index), taking the factors of the composite stock price indexes in traditional researches. In conclusion of this research, System Dynamics was proved to bean appropriate model for forecasting the volatility and direction of a stock market as a whole. With its timely adaptability, System Dynamic overcomes the limit of traditional statistic models.
물리적 의료서비스 품질 개선이 미숙아 생존율에 미치는 영향
최진 ( Jin Choi ),정관용 ( Kwan Yong Jeong ),박지윤 ( Ji Yun Park ) 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2005 한국시스템다이내믹스 연구 Vol.6 No.2
This paper on an experiment, using System Dynamics, on the affect of increase in number of beds and medical instruments used for the care of premature infants, which constitute the physical requirements in quality of medical services, on changes in the survival rate of premature infants that leads to demographic changes of Newborn infants. The model has four sectors: take-in capacity, survival rate of premature infants, demographics without newborn infants and demographics with newborn infants. The model simulates the changes in demographics of the newborn infants from 2002 to 2022. The study results show that the survival rate of premature infants can be increased by improving the physical aspects in the quality of medical services. An average of 1,900 premature infants can survive as a result of the physical quality improvements in medical services, adding up to an increase of 37,300 newborn infants by the year 2022.