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        다변량 지수평활모형을 이용한 환율 분석

        이연하,성병찬 한국통계학회 2020 응용통계연구 Vol.33 No.3

        We introduce multivariate exponential smoothing models based on a vector innovations structural time series framework. The models enable us to exploit potential inter-series dependencies to improve the fit and forecasts of multivariate (vector) time series. Models are applied to forecast the exchange rates of the UK pound (UKP) and US dollar (USD) against the Korean won (KRW) observed on monthly basis; subseqently, we compare their performance with alternative models. We observe that the multivariate exponential smoothing models are superior to alternatives. 본 논문은 단변량 지수평활법의 확장된 형태인 다변량 지수평활법을 소개하고 다변량 시계열 분석에 활용한다. 다변량 지수평활법은 한 개의 오차를 기반으로 하는 상태공간모형을 이용하여 추정의 편리성을 제고하며, 다변량 시계열 간의 잠재적인 상호연관성을 활용하여 적합도 및 예측력을 향상시킨다. 다변량 지수평활법의 성능을 평가하기 위하여 월별 원/달러 및 원/파운드 환율자료를 분석하고 예측한다. 대안 모형의 예측 결과와 비교하여 다변량 지수평활법의 우수성을 확인한다.

      • Chlorella의 增殖에 미치는 Gibberellin의 效果

        蔡麟基,李蓮河 이화여자대학교 한국문화연구원 1966 韓國文化硏究院 論叢 Vol.8 No.-

        Gibberellin has been known to be an agent which accelerates the growth of the higher plants. In order to see whether or not Gibberellin effected the multiplication of Chlorella(green algae), which is a lower plant, five experimental and one control series were set up. Each of five experimental series was made up using Myer's 4N-A5 Nutrient Solution which was 1ppm, 5ppm, 10ppm, 50ppm, and 100ppm of Gibberellin, respectively. Cultivation, with intermittent shaking for 10-21days, was carried out for each series. The results of this experiment showed the multiplication of Chlorella in the experimental series to be greater than that found in the control series. Multiplication was proportional to the concentration of Gibberellin. The plant multiplication in the experimental series in which 100ppm of Gibberellin was added, up to five to eight times that found in the control series.

      • 野草地植生의 季節的 變動의 生態學的 硏究

        朴奉奎,李蓮河 이화여자대학교 한국문화연구원 1966 韓國文化硏究院 論叢 Vol.8 No.-

        Using the Ωuadrat-method, an investigation was made of succession of native grassland vegetation during five periods (April, May to June, July to August, September to October, November to December) from April to December of 1964. The results are as follows. 1. The average internal and external height of the grasslands, which was about 10cm, in April, suddenly increased from May to June and reached a peak from July to August and then gradually decreased. 2. Since the pattern curves of the species, the species density, and the number of average plants were similar, so there was a similarity in pattern curves for ∑SDR_2, ∑SDR_3, and ∑H in the different periods. 3. The number of the species, the species density, the number of average plants, and the height of the grassland changed remarkably over the different periods. 4. The ratio of dispersion per plant and the height of grassland is 96.3cm, and 161.2cm for each period. We can see that the changes in height of the grasslands among the plants are |A-C|, |A-D|, |C-E|, |D-E| and |A-B|, |A-C|, |A-D|, |A-E|, |B-C|, |C-E|, |D-E|. 5. ∑SDR_2, ∑SDR_3, ∑H were gradually increased in each period and reached a peak from July to August thereafter, there was a rapid decrease from September to October. 6. The average height of the grassland and the average number of plants reached a peak from April (10cm, 25) to July and August (66cm, 41) in each period and rapidly decreased from September-October. 7. In succession series on native grassland vegetation in Korea, we have found grassland to be an important element in the community system (from Bong Kyu park's investigations in 1959, 1963, 1964). We could bring the same results in the changes of the grassland vegetation at each period. 8. Among the important species of grasslands (8 Species) from the view point of SDR_2 antagonistic relationships where found between the M. sinensis and the Z. Japonica, the Z. japonica and the P. aquilinum. 9. With the relation of SDR_2 to the height of the grasslands in each period, we could find the process of succession of 3 types for A,B,E, C.D.

      • Chlorella의 呼吸과 光合成의 Gas-代謝에 미치는 Gibberellic acid의 影響

        蔡麟基,陳平,李蓮河 梨花女子大學校 韓國生活科學硏究院 1968 韓國生活科學硏究院 論叢 Vol.1 No.-

        In order to see any effect of GAA_3 on the rates of respiration and photosynthesis in Chorella, the plants were cultivated in media under 10,000Lux of light at 25。c. of temperature, supplied the air containing 25% of carbon dioxide (CO_2) and the media were set up in six kinds of concentration of GAA_3 such that one was for the control (no GAA_3) and other five, for the experimentals (10, 50, 100, 150 and 200 ppm of GAA_3) The results of the examination after six days of cultivation showed that the growth of Chlorella cell was enhanced in all of five experimentals, especially the most conspicuous acceleration was shown in 10 ppm of GAA_3 and the acceleration rates in comparison with the control are as follows: packed cell volume, 240%; cell number, 410%; chlorophyll contents, 280%. The results of the present experiment also showed that the respiration rate was enhanced but photosynthesis was restrained in less than 100 ppm of GAA_3 and the situation was reverse in more than 100 ppm of GAA_3.

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