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인구구조 변화가 지역내총생산에 미치는 영향 : 성장분해모형의 인천광역시 적용사례를 중심으로
최태림(Choi, Taelim),최명섭(Choi, Myoungsub) 도시정책학회 2021 도시부동산연구 Vol.12 No.1
Demographic change has been paid attention to policy makers in South Korea because this country experienced unprecedented aging society. Even large metropolitan cities lost their population and the ratio of working age population sharply dropped. There has been growing concern on the devastating effect of rapid demographic changes on the metropolitan cities. The paper aims to analyze the effect of demographic structural change on the regional economic growth in a case of Incheon metropolitan city of South Korea. We employ a growth decomposition method through which per capita GRDP is decomposed into some factors including productivity, reallocation of labor, employment rate, and ratio of working age population. The analytical result provides some empirical findings of the negative effect of population aging but those effects are offset by increase of labor market participation and sectoral productivity. In addition, we simulate the effect of demographic changes over 20 years. It shows that per capita GRDP of Incheon metropolitan city would reach a peak in 2028 and then decline gradually.
최태림(Choi, Taelim),최명섭(Choi, Myoungsub) 도시정책학회 2020 도시부동산연구 Vol.11 No.1
Minimum wage has been a contentious issue in South Korea. Recently the minimum wage standard rapidly increased as a part of response to sluggish wage growth and a diverging trend of economic inequality. Rapid increase of minimum wage raised concern on job displacement in the low-wage sectors. Particularly, the youth may be a vulnerable group to unintended effect of rapid increase of minimum wage. The study aims to identify the region-specific effect of minimum wage on youth employment at a provincial level in South Korea. Although the minimum wage of South Korea uniformly applied to all regions, we assume that the effect of minimum wage would differ from region to region because of different individual characteristics as well as regional labor market conditions. We employed the multi-level logit approach to take into account two levels of features. This analysis provided empirical findings about some region-varying responses to minimum wage change. The youth in non-metro provinces, female youth, and those with two-year college eduction attainment are more vulnerable to the negative effect of minimum wage.
코로나 팬데믹 기간 인천시 가계부채 동향의 특성과 정책적 시사점
서봉만(Seo, Bongman),최태림(Choi, Taelim),김다애(Kim, Daae) 인천연구원 2022 도시연구 Vol.- No.21
본 연구의 목적은 한국은행 가계부채DB를 활용하여 코로나 팬데믹 기간 인천시 가계부채 변동의 특징을 살펴보고 정책 대응 방향을 제시하는 것이다. 본 연구의 분석 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 인천시는 특·광역시 중 상대적으로 가계부채 총량과 고위험 대출이 낮은 증가율을 보였다. 둘째, 인천시의 경우, 20대 청년과 저소득층 차주의 신용대출 증가율이 상대적으로 높게 나타났다. 예상과 달리 인천시 자영업자 대출 증가율은 전국평균을 하회하였다. 마지막으로 인천시 가계부채 위험 수준은 취약계층 비율의 증가세는 높고 고위험 차주의 비율은 낮아지는 상반된 추세가 동시에 나타났다. 향후 가계부채의 안정적인 관리를 위해서는 복지 프로그램과 연계한 지원정책 등의 발굴과 함께 서민금융복지지원센터의 조직과 인력을 확충하고, 청년층과 저소득층 대상 교육과 컨설팅 사업을 추진할 것을 제언한다. This study is to examine the characteristics of changes in household debt in Incheon City during the COVID-19 pandemic using the Bank of Korea Household Debt DB and to suggest policy responses. The results of this study are as follows. First, Incheon City showed a relatively low growth rate in total household debt and high-risk loans in comparison with major metropolitan cities in Korea. Second, in Incheon City, the debt growth rate of young people in their 20s and low-income borrowers is relatively higher. Contrary to expectations, the loan growth rate for the self-employed in Incheon was lower than the national average. Lastly, with regard to the household debt risk level in Incheon City, the opposite trends occurred simultaneously, with an increase in the ratio of households vulnerable to default debt and a decrease in the proportion of high-risk borrowers. For the stable management of household debt in the future, Incheon city should devise policies to support households with high debt burden in tandem with welfare programs, expand the organization and workforce of the Financial Welfare Support Center for the working class, and promote education and consulting projects for youth and low-income households.