http://chineseinput.net/에서 pinyin(병음)방식으로 중국어를 변환할 수 있습니다.
변환된 중국어를 복사하여 사용하시면 됩니다.
계절 ARIMA 모형을 이용한 104주 주간 최대 전력수요예측
김시연(Si-Yeon Kim),정현우(Hyun-Woo Jung),박정도(Jeong-Do Park),백승묵(Seung-Mook Baek),김우선(Woo-Seon Kim),전경희(Kyung-Hee Chon),송경빈(Kyung-Bin Song) 한국조명·전기설비학회 2014 조명·전기설비학회논문지 Vol.28 No.1
Accurate midterm load forecasting is essential to preventive maintenance programs and reliable demand supply programs. This paper describes a midterm load forecasting method using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model which has been widely used in time series forecasting due to its accuracy and predictability. The various ARIMA models are examined in order to find the optimal model having minimum error of the midterm load forecasting. The proposed method is applied to forecast 104-week load pattern using the historical data in Korea. The effectiveness of the proposed method is evaluated by forecasting 104-week load from 2011 to 2012 by using historical data from 2002 to 2010.