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유승협(Sung Hyup You) 한국마린엔지니어링학회 2009 한국마린엔지니어링학회 학술대회 논문집 Vol.2009 No.-
This study shows development and operation of operational ocean forecasting system and future plan of National Institute of Meteorological Research (NIMR)/Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). At present, NIMR/KMA has operated the high resolution wave and storm surge prediction system for ocean forecast using CRAY XIE system. From July, 2006 the Storm Surges/Tide Operational Model(STORM) have been applied to formal forecasting model in KMA. Since 2007, the high resolution regional and coastal wave model based WAVEWATHCH III(WW3) was applied to formal wave forecasting model instead of previous WAM. The study shows development and verification of operational ocean prediction system and future plan of KMA.
조석/폭풍해일 예측 모델과 검조소 조위자료를 활용한 한반도 연안 폭풍해일 특성 연구
유승협(You, Sung-Hyup),이우정(Lee, Woo-Jeong) 한국해안해양공학회 2010 한국해안해양공학회 논문집 Vol.22 No.6
기상청의 해양 예측모델을 이용하여 2008년과 2009년의 한반도 주변의 폭풍해일의 특성을 살펴보았다. 모델의 정확성을 파악하기 위해 모델 결과는 한반도 연안의 검조소 자료와 비교하였다. 본 연구에서 사용된 조석/폭풍해일 모델은 한반도 주변의 폭풍해일의 특성을 잘 나타내고 있으며 특히 하계의 태풍 영향으로 인한 폭풍해일의 계절변화를 뚜렷이 나타내고 있다. 2008년과 2009년의 48시간 예측 평균 RMSE(root mean square error)는 각각 0.272 m와 0.420 m로 나타났다. 한반도 주변의 해역별, 월별 폭풍해일에서는 하계의 강한 해상풍의 영향으로 하계에 높은 폭풍해일고가 2008년에 나타나지만 2009년의 경우에는 하계 이외의 기간에도 매우 높은 폭풍해일고를 나타내었다. 태풍 Kalmaegi(2008)와 Morakot(2009)이 한반도에 접근시 모델의 정확도는 연평균 수치와 유사하게 나타났지만 연평균 검증결과와 같이 2008년 태풍 Kalmaegi에 비해 2009년 태풍 Morakot의 경우가 예측정확도가 낮게 나타났다. Analysis has been made on the tide/storm surges characteristics near the Korean marginal seas in the 2008 and 2009 years using operational ocean prediction model of the Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA). In order to evaluate its performance, its results were compared with the observed data by tidal stations around Korean Peninsula. The model used in this study predicts very well the characteristics of tide/storm surges near the Korean Peninsula. Simulated storm surges show the evident effects of Typhoons in summer season. The averaged root mean square error(RMSE) of 48 hr forecasting between the modeled and observed storm surges are 0.272 and 0.420 m in 2008 and 2009, respectively. Due to strong sea winds, the highest storm surges heights was found in summer season of 2008, however, in 2009, the high storm surges heights was also found in other seasons. When Typhoon Kalmaegi(2008) and Morokot(2009) approached to Korean Peninsular, the accuracy of model predictions is almost same as annual mean value but the precision accuracy for Typhoon Morakot is lower than of Typhoon Kalmaegi similar to annual results.
지역 파랑 예측시스템과 해양기상 부이의 파랑 특성 비교 연구
유승협(Sung Hyup You),박종숙(Jong Suk Park) 한국해양공학회 2010 韓國海洋工學會誌 Vol.24 No.6
Analyses of wind wave characteristics near the Korean marginal seas were performed in 2008 and 2009 by comparisons of an operational wind wave forecast model and ocean buoy data. In order to evaluate the model performance, its results were compared with the observed data from an ocean buoy. The model used in this study was very good at predicting the characteristics of wind waves near the Korean Peninsula, with correlation coefficients between the model and observations of over 0.8. The averaged Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) for 48 hrs of forecasting between the modeled and observed waves and storm surges/tide were 0.540 m and 0.609 m in 2008 and 2009, respectively. In the spatial and seasonal analysis of wind waves, long waves were found in July and September at the southern coast of Korea in 2008, while in 2009 long waves were found in the winter season at the eastern coast of Korea. Simulated significant wave heights showed evident variations caused by Typhoons in the summer season. When Typhoons Kalmaegi and Morakot in 2008 and 2009 approached to Korean Peninsula, the accuracy of the model predictions was good compared to the annual mean value.
기상청 현업 모델 RDAPS와 QuikSCAT 해상풍 자료의 비교
유승협(You, Sung-Hyup),조재갑(Cho, Jae-Gab),서장원(Seo, Jang-Won) 한국해안해양공학회 2007 한국해안해양공학회 논문집 Vol.19 No.5
기상청 현업 모델 RDAPS 모델 자료와 QuikSCAT 관측결과 중 2005, 2006년 해상풍 자료를 비교하였다. 해상풍의 하계와 동계의 평균 공간 분포의 분석결과 한반도 주변의 계절적인 해상풍의 뚜렷한 특성을 잘 나타낸다. 모델과 관측의 해상풍 통계 분석 비교에서도 계절적인 차이를 잘 나타낸다. 한반도 주변의 하계 BIAS 값은 -0.5m/s이하의 분포를 보이고, 동계에는 -1 m/s이하의 분포를 보인다. 상관계수의 경우 하계에는 0.7, 동계에는 0.8 이상으로 분포한다. 공간적으로 평균된 상관계수의 경우 2005년, 2006년 모두 하계보다 동계에 더욱 상관관계가 높은 것으로 나타났다. 이것은 하계의 약한 풍속보다 동계의 강한 해상풍을 RDAPS에서 더 잘 재현하고 있는 것으로 판단된다. This study compared the sea surface wind pattern between model results from KMA operational model (RDAPS) and observational results from QuikSCAT in the 2005-2006 year. The mean spatial distributions of sea surface wind show the prominent seasonal patterns of summer and winter season adjacent to Korean Peninsular. The statistical analysis also shows well seasonal variation of sea surface wind patterns between model and observation results. The BIAS value represents less than -0.5 m/s and -1 m/s in summer and winter seasons, respectively. The spatially averaged correlation coefficient shows larger than 0.7 and 0.8 in summer and winter seasons, respectively. The correlation coefficient of winter season shows higher value than that of summer season in the comparison between model and observation. This results show that the RDAPS model simulate well strong sea surface wind in winter season rather than weak sea surface wind in summer season.