혼합전략하의 내쉬균형을 이용한 업태별 농식품 원산지표시 단속의 평가

송양훈 ( Yanghoon Song ) 한국농업정책학회 2011 농업경영정책연구 Vol.38 No.3

Korea introduced Food Origin Labeling System in 1991 and a full-scale system enforcement of it has been initiated after 1994. However, assessments on the effectiveness of the system are quite current and rare. In addition, even these efforts have focused on assessment by food item, which do not properly reflect the actual enforcement of the system because the system is enforced by marketing type. Therefore, in this study, the effectiveness of the system enforcement was analysed by marketing type, using the Mixed Strategy Nash Equilibrium, an equilibrium concept of the game theory. The result implies that the level of cheating probability is found to be rather lower than expected, ranging from 0.7% to 7.8% with the mean of 2.5%. To respond to this cheating behavior, the NAQS (National Agricultural Products Quality Management Service) raided with the mean probability of 1.5%, which is far less than the optimal mean raid probability of 8.8%. However, NAQS seems to react properly to the cheating behavior of the restaurants and meat stores, that are its main target marketing types.

시스템 다이나믹스를 활용한 거대억새 성장모형 추정

송양훈 ( Yanghoon Song ),공기서 ( Kiseo Kong ),박지원 ( Jiwon Park ),홍성구 ( Seonggu Hong ) 한국농공학회 2013 한국농공학회 학술대회초록집 Vol.2013 No.-

Miscanthus giganteus is a tall, perennial grass hybrid of Miscanthus sinensis and Miscanthus sacchariflorus, Because it is sterile hybrid, it propagates underground through its rhizomes. It is also a C4 plant to exhibit higher photosynthetic efficiency and lower water use requirements. It grows well even in marginal/barren lands. Because it produces a lot of biomass, growing up to 2.4~3.7 meters in height, it has been developed as a source of biomass based energy either for direct combustion or through cellulosic ethanol or other biofuel production such as wood pellets. Other than a potential as bio-fuels, it has a market value for medium of commercial mushroom in Korea to replace the import of sawdusts. Research on growth and utilization of Miscanthus giganteus is still underway, including the recent field trials of RDA project in Jeon-buk province, Korea. Through the recent field trials, the technical feasibility of Miscanthus giganteus was secured. The next step is to check on economic feasibility. To test on economic feasibility, a reliable growth model of Miscanthus giganteus is needed, because tests against all the extreme conditions in temperature, precipitation or PAR(Photosynthetically Active Radiation), which can happen in real production, may not be available during the field trials. An European growth model of Miscanthus giganteus, MISCANMOD, was analyzed and converted into a system dynamics model using STELLA. All the key parameters of the model are left unchanged but all the input data have been replaced with data from Korean studies. Sensitivity analysis has been done to identify the most sensitive variable in growth of Miscanthus giganteus. Using 2012 data sets for temperature, rainfalls, PE(Potential Evaporation) and PAR, 35.5 ton/ha/year of dry matter is expected to be produced. However, sensitivity analysis indicates that the yield can drop to half, depending on the environment. The most sensitive factor that changes the yield is the PAR. Increase in PAR sharply increases the yield. For example, if PAR increases 50%, the yield will increase to 53.3 ton/ha/year. However, if the PAR decreases 50% from the baseline, the yield will drop to mere 17.7 ton/ha/year. Because the portion of variable costs in production of Miscanthus giganteus is small and cost reduction from down sizing the production scale will not work, the yield is the most important factor in assess the economic feasibility. The model shows that with enough bad lucks, the yield of Miscanthus giganteus can drop significantly, which threatens the economic viability of the Miscanthus giganteus Projects in Korea.

메커니즘 디자인을 활용한 배 의무자조금 거출기준 분석

박지원 ( Jiwon Park ),송양훈 ( Yanghoon Song ) 한국농업경제학회 2016 農業經濟硏究 Vol.57 No.3

The voluntary check-off program for pears in Korea has been in operation since 2004. However, its operation has not reached its full capacity since it collects check-off indirectly from cooperatives, not directly from individual farmers. To enhance the collection and operational efficiency, a mandatory check-off program has been proposed. However, if an enforcement mechanism to prevent farmers from free-riding and a proper level of willingness-to-pay to induce farmers to pay are not devised, the mandatory program will fail. To design an efficient collection mechanism, willingness-to-pay for the check-off has been sur-veyed first. In the survey, it was found that farmers have incentives to lie about their true willing-ness-to-pay and to free-ride. This cheating behaviors make the above maximum collection infeasible. To control the cheating behaviors of the farmers and to design an incentives and participation com-patible check-off collection mechanism, the mechanism design in game theory has been used. According to the mechanism designed, the optimal unit check-off levels are KRW9.79/box for ‘per box’ design and KRW0.28/wrapper for ‘per wrapper’ design. Thus, the total check-offs are estimated to be KRW222million with participation rate of 73% for ‘per box’ program and KRW365million with participation rate of 75% for ‘per wrapper’ program. Thus, ‘per wrapper’ mechanism is found to be more appropriate with larger amount of total check-off and higher participation rate.

AHP를 이용한 KOICA 농업분야 원조사업의 평가

변규환(Byun, Kyu Hwan),송양훈(Song, Yanghoon) 한국농식품정책학회 2016 농업경영정책연구 Vol.43 No.4

The amount of aids by Korea continues to grow, and it is essential to increase the effectiveness of Korea’s aid in line with the goals of international society. Therefore, the goal of this study is to develop a quantitative approach, by which aid effectiveness can be measured and increased, with application to the previous agricultural ODA projects of Korea International Cooperation Agency (KOICA). To this end, this study utilizes the Analytic Hierarchy Process that makes use of evaluation scores of experts from evaluation reports (meta-evaluation) and field visits. Among The five OECD DAC criteria, it is found that Effectiveness is the most important criterion, while in the analysis of priorities in agriculture, Agricultural Water Resources is found to be the most important area. By applying the same method to the subcategories, criteria by which to compare projects and to determine the order of priorities is established. This study also analyzes the attributes of agricultural ODA projects of KOICA by examining the factors that affect project performance, international studies on aid effectiveness, the OECD DAC Peer Reviews, CDI, and QuODA. Project size in budget and period are selected as internal factors. Policy, cultural environment, economic structure, and population distribution of the partner countries are selected as external factors. The key analytic result from using the aforementioned factors is that there is no significant relationship among project performance and internal factors. However, significant relationships among project performance and external factors are found, in line with partner countries’ characteristics. Furthermore, the key analytic results in terms of economic structure and population distribution are that the performance of the agricultural ODA projects of KOICA is positively related to the agricultural GDP of the partner countries, and that they show high-level performance in regions with a high proportion of rural residents. Based on these findings, the important of the agricultural sector in reducing poverty in the ODA projects in agriculture of KOICA is confirmed.

신북방정책 대상국 유형분석 및 EDCF 해외농업개발·협력분야 연계전략에 대한 연구

김기윤(Kiyoon Kim),송양훈(Yanghoon Song) 국제개발협력학회 2021 국제개발협력연구 Vol.13 No.4

연구목적: 본 연구는, 상업적 목적의 해외농업 ‘개발’(경제부처)과 인도주의적 목적의 농업농촌분야 개발‘협력’(외교부)의 연계를 위하여, 신북방정책 대상국의 구매력, 농업생산, 민간투자, 농업기반시설을 대표하는 지표들을 분석하여 군집별 세부전략의 필요성을 밝히고, 수출입은행의 대외경제협력기금(EDCF)과 신북방정책의 연계방안을 제안하는 것을 목표하였다. 연구의 중요성: 코로나19 사태와 세계 각국의 외교적 갈등, 이에 따른 세계화의 퇴행은 농식품 분야에 있어 식량수입의존도가 높은 한국에게 위협적으로 다가온다. 적극적으로 대응하기 위해서는 안정적인 해외농업생산 및 식량반입-유통 기반확보를 통한 위기의 극복이 필요하다. 따라서 북방국가들의 경제, 농업부문의 특성을 반영하여 세부적인 해외농업개발사업과 공적개발원조(ODA)의 연계방안을 새롭게 제시할 필요성이 있다. 연구방법론: 신북방정책 대상 국가들의 경제 수준, 농업 및 유통경쟁력, 그리고 민간투자 매력도와 관련한 12개 변수들로 계층적 군집분석(Cluster Analysis)과 일원 분산분석(One Way ANOVA)을 실시하였다. 연구결과: 분석결과 총 6개의 군집을 도출할 수 있었다. 이후 러시아, 중국, 우크라이나를 제외한 3개 군집에 대해 경제적, 정치적, 농업기술·환경적 특성을 파악하였고 12가지 지표 중 민간투자매력도와 농업기반시설 현황이 통계적으로 유의미한 군집별 차이를 보여주는 것을 확인하였다. 결론 및 시사점: (A) 군집은 중앙아시아 내륙국가 (B) 카스피해 인접 농업국가(C) 안정적인 신흥경제성장국으로 특징지었다. 이러한 군집별 특성에 따라 대외경제협력기금을 활용한 신북방정책 연계전략을 제시하였다. (1) 농업 전략 군집에 따라 집중지원분야를 선정, (2) 새로운 융자상품을 만들어 융자접근성을 향상, (3) 마지막으로 시장자본 차입 후 정부자금으로 이차보전을 통해 중상위소득국에 저양허성 지원을 가능하게 하는 개발금융을 제안하였다. Purpose: The purpose of this study is to propose differentiated strategies for EDCF to engage in the New Northern Policy of Korea through Cluster Analysis, which ocnsiders the target countries’ purchasing powers, agricultural production, private investment and agricultural infrastructure, in connection between Overseas Agricultural Development efforts of economic ministries for commercial purposes and International Development Cooperation efforts in agriculture for humanitarian purpose (Ministry of Foreign Affairs). Originality: Korea’s food security is threatened by COVID-19, diplomatic conflicts and associated recent recess of globalization. To cope with the situation, a stable channel of food provision through overseas farms, marketing channels and infrastructure such as grain elevators is necessary. Therefore, reflecting on the differences in the target countries’ overall economy and agricultural sector is necessary, to link Korea’s commercial agricultural investment overseas and international development cooperation efforts for agriculture such as ODA. Methodology: 12 variables that represent target countries’ economic capacity, competitiveness of agricultural sector and food marketing, and attractiveness of private investment are used for Cluster Analysis and One Way ANOVA. Result: 6 clusters are identified, grouping the target countries into Russia, China, Ukraine and other 3 country groups. Then, more detailed analyses are done to identify the characteristics of groups’ economical, political and agricultural aspects. Among the 12 variables, private investment attractiveness and agricultural infrastructure are found to be statistically significant variables that differentiate the clusters or groups. Conclusions and Implication: Group (A) are Central Asian land-locked countries. Group (B) are agricultural countries around Caspian Seas. Group (C) are identified as emerging countries with stable economic growth. According to these characteristics, strategies of EDCF are proposed for the New Northern Policy. They are; (1) focusing on specific subsectors of agriculture, (2) improving financial accessibility of investing companies through offering new financial services, (3) providing Development Finance that allows low-concessional loans for middle-upper countries through supporting the interest difference using government budget.