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김관형(Kwanhyung Kim),김한수(Hansoo Kim),이성덕(Sungduk Lee),이현기(Hyungi Lee),윤경만(Kyoungman Yoon) 한국철도학회 2011 한국철도학회 학술발표대회논문집 Vol.2011 No.10
For an efficient railroad operations the demand forecasting is required. Time series models can quickly forecast the future demand with fewer data. As well as the accuracy of forecasting is excellent compared to other methods. In this study is proposed the intervention ARIMA model for forecasting methods of KTX passenger demand. The intervention ARIMA model may reflect the intervention such as the Kyongbu high-speed rail project second phase. The simple seasonal ARIMA model is predicted to overestimate the KTX passenger demand. However intervention ARIMA model is predicted the reasonable results. The KTX passenger demands were predicted to be a week units separated by the weekday and weekend.