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IV ECM Threshold Cointegration Tests and Nonlinear Monetary Policy in Korea
Walter Enders,Junsoo Lee,Mark C. Strazicich 한국개발연구원 2007 KDI Journal of Economic Policy (KDI JEP) Vol.29 No.2
The goal of this paper is to examine the validity of nonlinear Taylor rules in Korea. To perform our tests, we utilize new IV ECM threshold cointegration tests that are invariant to nuisance parameters. The new tests have a standard chi-square distribution and the same critical values can be used throughout. This is in contrast to OLS ECM threshold cointegration tests, which depend on nuisance parameters and have nonstandard distributions. After finding significant support for nonlinear cointegration, we find that the Bank of Korea raises the call rate of interest only when inflation is above a threshold rate. We additionally find that the Bank of Korea increases the call rate of interest to possibly counter domestic currency deprecation only when the rate of currency deprecation exceeds a threshold.
( Walter Enders ),( Raj Roy ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 1991 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.6 No.2
Using a two-country overlapping generations model, we analyze some of the tensions between developed and developing nations regarding international capital movements. The nature of the model is such that optimizing agents in the South have a high rate of time preference. Otherwise, the North and the South are alike in all resepects. The differential rate of time preference means that the South is likely to have a relatively low capital/labor ratio, wage rate, and level of per capita income but a relatively high interest rate in autarkic equilibrium. The introduction of international capital flows (intertemporal trade) will be welfare reducing for the current generation in the South even though it may increase the next generation`s (and steady state) utility. We discuss the international conflicts which arise with international capital movements and the intergenerational conflicts which arise within each nation.
Intertemporal Trade between Developed and Developing Nations : A Model of Host-Donor Tensions
Enders, Walter,Roy, Raj 세종대학교 국제경제연구소 1991 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.6 No.2
Using a two-country overlapping generations model, we analyze some of the tensions between developed and developing nations regarding international capital movements. The nature of the model is such that optimizing agents in the South have a high rate of time preference. Otherwise, the North and the South are alike in all resepects. The differential rate of time preference means that the South is likely to have a relatively low capital/labor ration, wage rate, and level of per capita income but a relatively high interest rate in autarkic equilibrium. The introduction of international capital flows (intertemporal trade) will be welfare reducing for the current generation in the South even though it may increase the next generation's (and steady state) utility. We discuss the international conflicts which arise with international capital movements and the intergenerational conflicts which arise within each nation.
IV ECM Threshold Cointegration Tests and Nonlinear Monetary Policy in Korea
월터 엔더스,이준수,마크 스트래지시쉬,Enders, Walter,Lee, Junsoo,Strazicich, Mark C. Korea Development Institute 2007 KDI Journal of Economic Policy (KDI JEP) Vol.29 No.2
본고에서는 소위 '테일러 룰'이라고 일컫는 통화정책론이 한국의 통화정책에도 적용될 수 있는지를 검증하고자 하였다. '테일러 룰'이 적용된다면 이자율, 물가상승률 및 잠재성장률 간에 공적분이 성립해야 하는데, 본고에서는 선형관계를 전제로 하는 공적분은 성립하지 않는다는 결과를 산출하였고, 더 나아가 새로운 분계점 공적분 검정법(IV ECM Threshold Cointegration Tests)을 개발하고 이를 적용하고자 하였다. 이 방법론은 기존의 공적분 검정법과 달리 성가신 파라미터(nuisance parameters)에 의존하지 않는다는 장점이 있다. 이 장점을 사용하여 적용한 결과, 본고에서는 한국에 있어서도 비선형 테일러 통화정책에 대한 분계점 공적분이 성립하고 '비선형 테일러 룰'이 검증되었음을 보여주었다. The goal of this paper is to examine the validity of nonlinear Taylor rules in Korea. To perform our tests, we utilize new IV ECM threshold cointegration tests that are invariant to nuisance parameters. The new tests have a standard chi-square distribution and the same critical values can be used throughout. This is in contrast to OLS ECM threshold cointegration tests, which depend on nuisance parameters and have nonstandard distributions. After finding significant support for nonlinear cointegration, we find that the Bank of Korea raises the call rate of interest only when inflation is above a threshold rate. We additionally find that the Bank of Korea increases the call rate of interest to possibly counter domestic currency deprecation only when the rate of currency deprecation exceeds a threshold.