러시아-우크라이나 전쟁과 국제관광

김신효 한국외국어대학교(글로벌캠퍼스) 동유럽발칸연구소 2023 동유럽발칸연구 Vol.47 No.3

Since the World Health Organization(WHO) declared a pandemic due to the COVID-19 outbreak on March 11, 2020, the international tourism industry has suffered an unprecedented blow. In the international tourism market, which was in a gradual recovery of period, Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, subsequent Western sanctions, and a counterattack by Russia, were enough to cause a new level of uncertainty. After the Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Ukraine and Moldova closed their airspace, and Western countries imposed measures such as a ban on takeing off and landing and flying in their own airspaces, and the suspension of the code-sharing agreement on planes belonging to Russian airlines. Russia also responded and it has become inevitable for neighboring countries to change air routes. This led to an increase in flight time and an increase in air ticket costs, which negatively affected international tourism. Nevertheless, international air ticketing declined for the two weeks after the outbreak of the war, but demand for international tourism has gradually recovered since then. According to the UN World Tourism Organization's Tourism Recovery Tracker data, the number of international tourist arrivals around the world at the end of 2022 recovered to 65% compared to 2019 before the pandemic, exceeding the expected recovery of 37% to 50% compared to 2019, an estimated scenario announced by the UN World Tourism Organization in January 2022. In particular, the number of international tourist arrivals in Europe has recovered to 80% compared to 2019, indicating a fairly rapid recovery compared to 27% in the Asia-Pacific region. In addition, the number of international tourist arrivals around the world from January to March 2023 recovered to 80% compared to 2019 before the pandemic, 90% in Europe, and 72% in Central and Eastern Europe. And it can be seen that the recovery is faster not only than experts expected at the beginning of the outbreak of war, but also than the result of the survey on the recovery period of international tourism to the pre-pandemic level, which was surveyed by experts from each country by the UN World Tourism Organization before the outbreak. And the number of Russians entering Korea in 2022, 60,019, which is 17.5% compared to 343,057 in 2019 before the pandemic, and the number of Russian patients using medical institutions in Korea was 9,616 in 2022, which is 32.2% compared to 29,897 in 2019. Although the pace of recovery is not faster than that of other countries, considering that the number of arrivals from January to May 2023 was 60,671, which has already exceeded the annual number of arrivals in 2022, the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on the Korean inbound tourism market can be seen as insignificant.

The current state and prospects of travel business development under the COVID-19 pandemic

Tkachenko, Tetiana,Pryhara, Olha,Zatsepina, Nataly,Bryk, Stepan,Holubets, Iryna,Havryliuk, Alla International Journal of Computer ScienceNetwork S 2021 International journal of computer science and netw Vol.21 No.spc12

The relevance of this scientific research is determined by the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the current trends and dynamics of world tourism development. This article aims to identify patterns of development of the modern tourist market, analysis of problems and prospects of development in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Materials and methods. General scientific methods and methods of research are used in the work: analysis, synthesis, comparison, analysis of statistical data. The analysis of the viewpoints of foreign and domestic authors on the research of the international tourist market allowed us to substantiate the actual directions of tourism development due to the influence of negative factors connected with the spread of a new coronavirus infection COVID-19. Economic-statistical, abstract-logical, and economic-mathematical methods of research were used during the process of study and data processing. Results. The analysis of the current state of the tourist market by world regions was carried out. It was found that tourism is one of the most affected sectors from COVID-19, as, by the end of 2020, the total number of tourist arrivals in the world decreased by 74% compared to the same period in 2019. The consequence of this decline was a loss of total global tourism revenues by the end of 2020, which equaled $1.3 trillion. 27% of all destinations are completely closed to international tourism. At the end of 2020, the economy of international tourism has shrunk by about 80%. In 2020 the world traveled 98 million fewer people (-83%) relative to the same period last year. Tourism was hit hardest by the pandemic in the Asia-Pacific region, where travel restrictions are as strict as possible. International arrivals in this region fell by 84% (300 million). The Middle East and Africa recorded declines of 75 and 70 percent. Despite a small and short-lived recovery in the summer of 2020, Europe lost 71% of the tourist flow, with the European continent recording the largest drop in absolute terms compared with 2019, 500 million. In North and South America, foreign arrivals declined. It is revealed that a significant decrease in tourist flows leads to a massive loss of jobs, a sharp decline in foreign exchange earnings and taxes, which limits the ability of states to support the tourism industry. Three possible scenarios of exit of the tourist industry from the crisis, reflecting the most probable changes of monthly tourist flows, are considered. The characteristics of respondents from Ukraine, Germany, and the USA and their attitude to travel depending on gender, age, education level, professional status, and monthly income are presented. About 57% of respondents from Ukraine, Poland, and the United States were planning a tourist trip in 2021. Note that people with higher or secondary education were more willing to plan such a trip. The results of the empirical study confirm that interest in domestic tourism has increased significantly in 2021. The regression model of dependence of the number of domestic tourist trips on the example of Ukraine with time tendency (t) and seasonal variations (Turˆt = 7288,498 - 20,58t - 410,88∑5) it forecast for 2020, which allows stabilizing the process of tourist trips after the pandemic to use this model to forecast for any country. Discussion. We should emphasize the seriousness of the COVID-19 pandemic and the fact that many experts and scientists believe in the long-term recovery of the tourism industry. In our opinion, the governments of the countries need to refocus on domestic tourism and deal with infrastructure development, search for new niches, formats, formation of new package deals in new - domestic - segment (new products' development (tourist routes, exhibitions, sightseeing programs, special rehabilitation programs after COVID) -19 in sanatoriums, etc.); creation of individual offers for different target audiences). Conclusions. Thus, the identif

TOURISM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT IN MONGOLIA AND IT’S PERSPECTIVE

Batsukh DAVAASUREN 동중앙아시아경상학회 2010 한몽경상연구 Vol.21 No.1

Travel and tourism, which is called ‘non- smoked industry’ is now one of the largest industries in the world. For the last 50 years period international tourism in the entire world and in some of its regions has been influenced by many negative occurrences such as radical changes in climate, natural disasters like earthquakes or tsunami, the influenza A(H1N1) virus, HIV and avian flu, social conflicts and regional wars or terrorism. However, the tourism industry in most countries has shown its aptitude to overcome those problems and develop more rapidly. The development of international tourism has been characterized by continuing geographical spread and diversification of tourist destinations. Today tourism is a priority industry for not only developed countries but also many smaller nations around the world such as Mongolia in the belief that it will lead to economic growth. This paper discusses the current situation and development trends of the tourism in Mongolia in relation to Asian region and the rest of the world, accompanied by suggestions on how to improve the international tourism in Mongolia.

Current Situation And Development Trend Of Tourism Sector In Mongolia

Ph.D. Batsukh DAVAASUREN 동아대학교 동아시아연구원 2010 동아시아 : 비교와 전망 Vol.9 No.2

Travel and tourism, which is called ‘non- smoked industry’ is now one of the largest industries in the world. For the last 50 years period international tourism in the entire world and in some of its regions has been influenced by many negative occurrences such as radical changes in climate, natural disasters like earthquakes or tsunami, the influenza A(H1N1) virus, HIV and avian flu, social conflicts and regional wars or terrorism. However, the tourism industry in most countries has shown its aptitude to overcome those problems and develop more rapidly. The development of international tourism has been characterized by continuing geographical spread and diversification of tourist destinations. Today tourism is a priority industry for not only developed countries but also many smaller nations around the world such as Mongolia in the belief that it will lead to economic growth. This paper discusses the current situation and development trends of the tourism in Mongolia in relation to Asian region and the rest of the world, accompanied by suggestions on how to improve the international tourism in Mongolia.

Dynamic Effects of Macroeconomic Factors on International Tourism Demand

Park Hae-Sun(박해선),James W. Mjelde(James W. Mjelde),Lee Choong-Ki(이충기) 대한관광경영학회 2012 觀光硏究 Vol.27 No.4

Dynamic effects of macroeconomic conditions in major inbound arrivals markets (Japan, China, United States, and Taiwan) on total international arrivals to Korea are examined using a vector error correction model and quarterly data. Overall, results show that the economic conditions in the different major inbound markets affect international arrivals to Korea. Real per capita gross domestic product (GDP) in the inbound markets has strong and long lasting positive influence on arrivals to Korea. Depreciation of Korean won with respect to currency of inbound markets has strong and long lasting positive influence on arrivals to Korea except for China. China’s different response to exchange rate shock may be cause by the number of tourist arriving from China seeking employment. 본 연구는 벡터오차수정모형과 분기별 자료를 이용하여 주요 인바운드 국가들(일본, 중국, 미국, 대만)의 거시경제적 변수가 우리나라 인바운드 관광객시장에 미치는 동태적인 영향을 분석하였다. 분석결과 주요 인바운드시장의 거시경제적 조건이 우리나라 인바운시장에 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 주요 인바운드시장의 1인당 실질소득은 우리나라 인바운드 관광수요에 강하고 지속적인 양(+)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 또한, 주요 인바운드시장 화폐의 원화에 대한 환율도 중국을 제외하고, 강하고 지속적인 양(+)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 이와 같은 환율충격에 대한 중국의 다른 반응은 중국 관광객 중 구직목적의 방문객이 포함된 것에 기인한 것으로 추정된다.

거시경제적 요인이 인바운드 관광수요에 미치는 동태적 영향 분석

박해선,이충기 대한관광경영학회 2012 觀光硏究 Vol.27 No.4

본 연구는 벡터오차수정모형과 분기별 자료를 이용하여 주요 인바운드 국가들(일본, 중국, 미국, 대만)의 거시경제적 변수가 우리나라 인바운드 관광객시장에 미치는 동태적인 영향을 분석하였다. 분석결과 주요 인바운드시장의 거시경제적 조건이 우리나라 인바운시장에 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 주요 인바운드시장의 1인당 실질소득은 우리나라 인바운드 관광수요에 강하고 지속적인 양(+)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 또한, 주요 인바운드시장 화폐의 원화에 대한 환율도 중국을 제외하고, 강하고 지속적인 양(+)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 이와 같은 환율충격에 대한 중국의 다른 반응은 중국 관광객 중 구직목적의 방문객이 포함된 것에 기인한 것으로 추정된다. Dynamic effects of macroeconomic conditions in major inbound arrivals markets (Japan, China, United States, and Taiwan) on total international arrivals to Korea are examined using a vector error correction model and quarterly data. Overall, results show that the economic conditions in the different major inbound markets affect international arrivals to Korea. Real per capita gross domestic product (GDP) in the inbound markets has strong and long lasting positive influence on arrivals to Korea. Depreciation of Korean won with respect to currency of inbound markets has strong and long lasting positive influence on arrivals to Korea except for China. China's different response to exchange rate shock may be cause by the number of tourist arriving from China seeking employment.