Dynamic Effects of Macroeconomic Factors on International Tourism Demand = 거시경제적 요인이 인바운드 관광수요에 미치는 동태적 영향 분석

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Dynamic effects of macroeconomic conditions in major inbound arrivals markets (Japan, China, United States, and Taiwan) on total international arrivals to Korea are examined using a vector error correction model and quarterly data. Overall, results show that the economic conditions in the different major inbound markets affect international arrivals to Korea. Real per capita gross domestic product (GDP) in the inbound markets has strong and long lasting positive influence on arrivals to Korea. Depreciation of Korean won with respect to currency of inbound markets has strong and long lasting positive influence on arrivals to Korea except for China. China’s different response to exchange rate shock may be cause by the number of tourist arriving from China seeking employment.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 연구는 벡터오차수정모형과 분기별 자료를 이용하여 주요 인바운드 국가들(일본, 중국, 미국, 대만)의 거시경제적 변수가 우리나라 인바운드 관광객시장에 미치는 동태적인 영향을 분석하였다. 분석결과 주요 인바운드시장의 거시경제적 조건이 우리나라 인바운시장에 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 주요 인바운드시장의 1인당 실질소득은 우리나라 인바운드 관광수요에 강하고 지속적인 양(+)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 또한, 주요 인바운드시장 화폐의 원화에 대한 환율도 중국을 제외하고, 강하고 지속적인 양(+)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 이와 같은 환율충격에 대한 중국의 다른 반응은 중국 관광객 중 구직목적의 방문객이 포함된 것에 기인한 것으로 추정된다.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Abstract
• Ⅰ. INTRODUCTION
• Ⅱ. LITERATURE REVIEW
• Ⅲ. METHODOLOGY
• Ⅳ. EMPIRICAL RESULTS
• Ⅴ. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS
• REFERENCES
• 요약

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