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Validity of Time Reversal for Testing Granger Causality
Winkler, Irene,Panknin, Danny,Bartz, Daniel,Muller, Klaus-Robert,Haufe, Stefan Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers 2016 IEEE transactions on signal processing Vol.64 No.11
<P>Inferring causal interactions from observed data is a challenging problem, especially in the presence of measurement noise. To alleviate the problem of spurious causality, Haufe (2013) proposed to contrast measures of information flow obtained on the original data against the same measures obtained on time-reversed data. They show that this procedure, time-reversed Granger causality (TRGC), robustly rejects causal interpretations on mixtures of independent signals. While promising results have been achieved in simulations, it was so far unknown whether time reversal leads to valid measures of information flow in the presence of true interaction. Here, we prove that, for linear finite-order autoregressive processes with unidirectional information flow between two variables, the application of time reversal for testing Granger causality indeed leads to correct estimates of information flow and its directionality. Using simulations, we further show that TRGC is able to infer correct directionality with similar statistical power as the net Granger causality between two variables, while being much more robust to the presence of measurement noise.</P>
Nonlinear analysis of connectors applied on concrete composite constructions
B. Winkler,P. Bianchi,M. Siemers 한국계산역학회 2006 Computers and Concrete, An International Journal Vol.3 No.2
To place concrete overlays has become a standard application in the strengthening and rehabilitation of concrete structures such as bridges, tunnels, parking decks and industrial buildings. In general, connectors are used to ensure a monolithic behavior of the two concrete layers. Within the framework of the development of a new connector wedge splitting tests and shear tests were performed, in addition nonlinear finite element analyses were applied to investigate the load transfer behavior of the connectors for different prototypes. The numerical simulation results were compared to experimental data. The computed load-displacement curve demonstrates good correspondence with the curves obtained in the experiments, and the experimental crack patterns are reasonably simulated by the computed crack propagation. Both numerical and experimental investigations on the wedge splitting test and on the shear test served as basis for the development of new type of connectors.
PALEOENVIRONMENT AT JONES RANCH, AN EARLY CRETACEOUS SAUROPOD QUARRY IN TEXAS, U.S.A.
Dale A. Winkler,Peter J. Rose 한국고생물학회 2006 고생물학회지 Vol.22 No.1
Jones Ranch는 미국 텍사스 Twin Mountains층 (Trinity 층군)의 전기 백악기 (Aptian-Albian 경계) 용각류 공룡들이 함께 묻혀있는 독특한 화석지다. 최소한 4개체의 뼈들이 하성 퇴적물 속에 커다란 나무 둥치들과 함께 묻혀있다. 퇴적구조, 화석화과정, 함께 산출되는 동식물 화석군을 보면 계절적으로 건기 때 용각류 시체와 나무들이 함께 썩은 후 운반되어 재배치되어 현재 위치에 온 것으로 해석된다. 함께 산출되는 척추동물화석들은 육성환경과 민물에 사는 hybodont chondrichthyan Lonchidion enitae와 폐어를 포함한다. 본 화석지에 풍부한 식물화적은 멸종된 침엽수인 Frenelopsis ramosissima 이다. 그 당시 Jones Ranch에는 용각류들이 생물의 다양성이 그리 높지 않은 20 미터 높이에 이르는 침엽수림에 살고 있었다. Trinity 층군에서 산출되는 풍부한 발자국화석과 이들 용각류 화석들은 용각류들이 얕은 해안을 따라 발달한 높은 다양성을 가지는 숲과 계절적으로 가문 다양성이 낮은 내륙 숲속 모두에 군집을 이루며 살았다는 것을 암시한다. Jones Ranch is a unique Early Cretaceous (Aptian-Albian boundary) sauropod dinosaur accumulation in the Twin Mountains Formation (Trinity Group), Texas, U.S.A. Bones of at least four individuals are found together with large logs in a fluvial channel deposit. Sedimentary structures, taphonomic considerations and associated fauna and flora demonstrate that sauropod carcasses and trees decomposed in a seasonally dry stream bed before being transported to, or rearranged at, their final point of burial. Associated vertebrate fauna includes terrestrial and fresh water elements including the rare hybodont chondrichthyan Lonchidion anitae and lungfish. Abundant plant material from the site is referred to the extinct conifer Frenelopsis ramosissima. At Jones Ranch, sauropods dwelt within a low diversity coniferous forest with trees that reached above 20 meters in height. The death assemblage and abundant track sites in the Trinity Group suggest gregarious behavior in a sauropod that occupied both low diversity inland forests drained by ephemeral streams and higher diversity plant communities along the coast of a shallow sea.
Christian G. Winkler,Naoko Taniguch 동아시아연구원 2022 Journal of East Asian Studies Vol.22 No.3
The effects of the 1990s reforms to the electoral system of Japan's House of Representatives have been among the most frequently discussed topics in political science research on the country. These reforms saw the replacement of a hitherto single nontransferable vote (SNTV) system by a mixed-member majoritarian (MMM) system with a strong Single Member District (SMD) and a weaker Proportional Representation (PR) component. Many studies have suggested that the reforms may have had significant impact on the strategies of political parties. Generally, SMD systems have been widely thought to favor larger parties, while PR systems are more beneficial to small and medium-sized parties. On the content side, larger parties seeking control of the government would try to win the support of large numbers of floating voters by campaigning on universal/programmatic policy appeals, as opposed to particularistic interests. In contrast, smaller parties would cater towards their core supporters’ preferences. Previous studies have noted that the old SNTV system in Japan had produced results similar to PR systems (Reed 2003). Japan's electoral reform may have thus changed the strategy of large parties, which would need to win more seats in the SMDs to gain (or hold onto) power, while smaller parties have continued to try and win seats via the PR tier. Therefore, the reform provides valuable research material in so far as we can simultaneously observe different effects by the SMD and the PR systems on parties of different sizes.