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Past Trends and Future Estimation of Annual Breast Cancer Incidence in Osaka, Japan
Toyoda, Yasuhiro,Tabuchi, Takahiro,Nakayama, Tomio,Hojo, Shigeyuki,Yoshioka, Setsuko,Maeura, Yoshiichi Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention 2016 Asian Pacific journal of cancer prevention Vol.17 No.6
Background: Although the breast cancer incidence rate in Japan is lower than in western countries, the age-specific rates have markedly increased in recent years, along with the problems of declining birth rate and an aging population. Materials and Methods: We examined past trends of age-specific breast cancer incidence using data from the Osaka Cancer Registry from 1976 to 2010, and estimated future trends until 2025 based on the changes observed and population dynamics using a log linear regression model. Results: The age-specific breast cancer incidence rate has increased consistently from the 1970s, and the rates have caught up with those of Japanese-Americans in the US. Assuming the increasing tendency of age-specific breast cancer incidence to be constant, the average annual incidence of breast cancer will increase 1.7-fold from 2006-2010 to 2021-2025. Furthermore, the number of patients aged 80 years should increase 3.4-fold. Conclusions: The medical demand for breast cancer care in Japan may increase explosively in the future, particularly among the elderly. We need to prepare for such a future increase in demand for care, although careful monitoring is needed to confirm these results.
Kanako Kono,Tohru Morisada,Kumiko Saika,Eiko Saitoh Aoki,Etsuko Miyagi,Kiyoshi Ito,Hirokazu Takahashi,Tomio Nakayama,Hiroshi Saito,Daisuke Aoki 대한부인종양학회 2021 Journal of Gynecologic Oncology Vol.32 No.3
Objective: In 2013, a cohort study aimed to clarify the positive and negative effects ofintroducing the human papillomavirus (HPV) testing for population-based cervical cancerscreening has been launched in Japan. This study included four screenings during thesubsequent 7-year follow-up period. We aim to describe the results of the first round of thisstudy on cervical cancer screening here. Methods: This study began in September 2013 with recruitment completed in March 2016. Women aged 30–49 years were divided into 2 groups: those who received uterine cervicalcytology alone in the first year (control group), or those who received a combination ofcytology and HPV testing (intervention group), based on their age. After first screening,women with positive result of cytology or positive HPV test required referral. We summarizedthe results of the first round of cervical cancer screening. Results: Of the 25,074 women who were eligible for the study, 13,845 women (55.2%) werescreened with cytology alone; 11,229 women (44.8%) received a combination of cytologyand HPV testing. After screening, 407 women (2.9%) in the control group and 1,003 women(8.9%) in the intervention group required referral, respectively. Adding HPV testing increasedreferral rate significantly (p<0.001). Conclusion: After first screening, introduction of HPV testing appears to contribute tosignificantly higher referral rates, suggesting that the number of colposcopies as a detailedexamination may increase. These preliminary findings suggest that if HPV testing is introduced into screening, medical institutions need to be prepared for an increasing numberof follow-up examinations.