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      • Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses for fuel temperature evaluations of U-Mo/Al plate-type dispersion fuel

        Sweidan, Faris B.,Tahk, Young-wook,Yim, Jeong-Sik,Ryu, Ho Jin Elsevier 2018 Annals of nuclear energy Vol.120 No.-

        <P><B>Abstract</B></P> <P>U-Mo/Al plate-type dispersion fuel is a promising candidate for the conversion of research reactor fuels from highly enriched to low-enriched uranium due to its high uranium density. The fuel temperature is a very important parameter, as it affects the performance of the fuel through various aspects, such as the formation of an interaction layer (IL) between the fuel particles and the matrix, swelling, and the release of fission gas. For these reasons, the fuel temperature as a function of the fission density was calculated for two representative heat flux profiles using best-estimate values and Monte Carlo simulations. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses which utilized the uncertainties of the critical parameters were then conducted to determine the upper (maximum) and lower (minimum) bounds of the fuel temperature for the selected heat flux profiles. The uncertainty analysis used common uncertainty propagation approaches and a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (Monte Carlo simulation), randomly sampling numbers following a Gaussian distribution. Lastly, the Pearson correlation coefficient was used to identify the input uncertainties which influence the fuel temperature most in the sensitivity analysis. These analyses contribute to safety analyses and to the licensing process, as they are used in best-estimate approaches that apply realistic assumptions complemented with uncertainty analyses, such as the Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty (BEPU) approach.</P> <P><B>Highlights</B></P> <P> <UL> <LI> Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses on U-Mo/Al dispersion fuel were conducted. </LI> <LI> Uncertainties of key parameters on the fuel temperature were evaluated. </LI> <LI> The fuel temperature as a function of the fission density was calculated. </LI> <LI> Pearson correlation coefficient was used to identify the influence of the input uncertainties. </LI> </UL> </P>

      • KCI등재

        The Fed`s Re-Programming Strategy to Re-Energize the U.S. Economy During the Great Recession

        ( Osama D. Sweidan ),( Mahendra Raj ),( Md Hamid Uddin ) 한양대학교 경제연구소 2012 JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH Vol.17 No.2

        The main goal of the Fed`s unconventional monetary policy is to decrease the spread between the interest rate on government secu- rities and the firms` borrowing cost to maintain these firms. As a result, zero lower bound interest rate is adopted. Thus, this paper seeks to introduce an analysis to the Feds` reactions and proce- dures to counter the great recession of 2007-2008 in an economic model which contains the mechanism of zero lower bound. The paper utilizes a backward-looking model to achieve its goal. The paper shows that within the context of zero lower bound mech- anism the relationship between the ination rate and real GDP is unstable. At the same time, when the level of macroeconomic indictors` are set-up at zero level, the main engine to push the economy forward is the monetary policy shocks As a result, the paper concludes that in such circumstances aggressive measures and reactions are a necessary procedure to prevent the economy from falling into a deationary trap. Moreover, the paper intro- duces a scenario of how the economy can get out of the great recession within the paper`s model. Besides, the paper illustrates that the remedy process is an accurate and sensitive step to the reactions in the economy.

      • KCI등재

        The Fed's Re-Programming Strategy to Re-Energize the U.S. Economy During the Great Recession

        Osama D. Sweidan,Mahendra Raj,Md Hamid Uddin 한양대학교 경제연구소 2012 JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH Vol.17 No.2

        The main goal of the Fed's unconventional monetary policy is to decrease the spread between the interest rate on government securities and the firms'borrowing cost to maintain these firms. As a result, zero lower bound interest rate is adopted. Thus, this paper seeks to introduce an analysis to the Feds' reactions and procedures to counter the great recession of 2007-2008 in an economic model which contains the mechanism of zero lower bound. The paper utilizes a backward-looking model to achieve its goal. The paper shows that within the context of zero lower bound mechanism the relationship between the inflation rate and real GDP is unstable. At the same time, when the level of macroeconomic indictors' are set-up at zero level, the main engine to push the economy forward is the monetary policy shocks As a result, the paper concludes that in such circumstances aggressive measures and reactions are a necessary procedure to prevent the economy from falling into a deflationary trap. Moreover, the paper introduces a scenario of how the economy can get out of the great recession within the paper's model. Besides, the paper illustrates that the remedy process is an accurate and sensitive step to the reactions in the economy.

      • KCI등재

        The asymmetric loss function and the central bank ability in developing countries

        Osama D. Sweidan, 연세대학교 동서문제연구원 2008 Global economic review Vol.37 No.3

        This paper seeks to develop a theoretical strand of research in monetary economics by modeling central bank ability in the loss function. Recently, many working papers issued by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) prove that some central banks, particularly from developing countries, suffering from serious operational problems that might affect their abilities to control the economy. Simultaneously, literature review shows that the movements are toward using asymmetric loss function. Therefore, we utilize this function in the standard monetary approach. The results proved that both central bank ability and preference in developing countries are fundamental to explain inflation bias and the movement of monetary policy instrument.

      • KCI등재

        Inflation targeting and the uncertainty level in developing countries

        ( Osama D. Sweidan ),( Benjamin Widner Jr ) 한양대학교 경제연구소 2014 JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH Vol.19 No.2

        This paper investigates theoretically using an economic model whether inflation targeting policy is an optimum policy or not in developing countries, where central banks have engaged in quasi fiscal activities. Technically, the paper compares between two strategies; inflation targeting policy and Morris and Shin (2002a) strategy, in which the expected inflation rate is built based on external and internal signals. The result proves that inflation targeting policy is not an optimum under a dependent central bank. Agents in developing countries do not react to inflation targeting policy because of the high uncertainty level. They prefer to rely on external signals. Moreover, we prove that an effective inflation targeting policy requires more economic certainty and stability.

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