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International Fiscal Spillovers: A Review Essay
Michael B. Devereux 한국경제학회 2018 The Korean Economic Review Vol.34 No.1
This paper provides a review of the empirical literature on fiscal multipliers and international fiscal spillovers. We discuss the various empirical methodologies employed in measuring spillovers, and the degree to which estimated spillovers depend on the state of the business cycle, the stance of monetary policy, the exchange rate regime, and other factors. In an environment where monetary policy is constrained by the zero bound, both fiscal multipliers and international fiscal spillovers are likely to be much larger than in normal times. In general, this prediction is supported in the empirical literature.
Monetary Policy in Economic Crises: A Simple Model of Policy with External Financial Constraints
Michael B. Devereux,Doris Poon 한국국제경제학회 2011 International Economic Journal Vol.25 No.4
The experience of economic crises in emerging market economies suggests that the operation of monetary policy in these economies is severely limited by the presence of financial constraints. This is seen in the tendency to follow contractionary monetary policy during crises, and the observation that these countries pursue much more stable exchange rates than do high income advanced economies, despite having a more volatile external environment. This paper analyzes the use of monetary policy in an open economy in which exchange rate sensitive collateral constraints may bind in some states of the world. The appeal of the model is that it allows for a complete analytical description of the effects of collateral constraints, and admits a full characterization of welfare-maximizing monetary policy rules. The model can explain two empirical features of emerging market monetary policy described above – in particular, that optimal monetary policy may be pro-cyclical under binding collateral constraints, and an economy with large external shocks may favor a fixed exchange rate, even though flexible exchange rates are preferred when external shocks are smaller.
Global vs. Local Liquidity Traps
David Cook,Michael B. Devereux 서울대학교 경제연구소 2011 Seoul journal of economics Vol.24 No.4
This paper examines demand spillovers in a two country open economy model to a demand shock newline (emanating from a single, source country) sufficiently large to push one or both countries into a liquidity trap. The zero lower bound on nominal interest rates keeps the central bank in the source country from fully adjusting monetary policy. We describe a two country New Keynesian model with sufficient home bias so as to exclude symmetric movements in response to demand shocks. We study conditions under which a liquidity trap in one country might spillover to a trading partner. We study, under which conditions, a liquidity trap in one country will lead to a liquidity trap in another country. We also show conditions under which a liquidity trap in another country can spillover into an output expansion in a trading partner.