Adjusting for reverse causation to estimate the effect of obesity on mortality after incident heart failure in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study

Maryam Shakiba,Hamid Soori,Mohammad Ali Mansournia,Seyed Saeed Hashemi Nazari,Yahya Salimi 한국역학회 2016 Epidemiology and Health Vol.38 No.-

OBJECTIVES: The lower mortality rate of obese patients with heart failure (HF) has been partly attributed to reverse causation bias due to weight loss caused by disease. Using data about weight both before and after HF, this study aimed to adjust for reverse causation and examine the association of obesity both before and after HF with mortality. METHODS: Using the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study, 308 patients with data available from before and after the incidence of HF were included. Pre-morbid and post-morbid obesity were defined based on body mass index measurements at least three months before and after incident HF. The associations of pre-morbid and post-morbid obesity and weight change with survival after HF were evaluated using a Cox proportional hazard model. RESULTS: Pre-morbid obesity was associated with higher mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 1.61; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.04 to 2.49) but post-morbid obesity was associated with increased survival (HR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.37 to 0.88). Adjusting for weight change due to disease as a confounder of the obesity-mortality relationship resulted in the absence of any significant associations between post-morbid obesity and mortality. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated that controlling for reverse causality by adjusting for the confounder of weight change may remove or reverse the protective effect of obesity on mortality among patients with incident HF.

Associations between dietary risk factors and ischemic stroke: a comparison of regression methods using data from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

Seyed Saeed Hashemi Nazari,Hamid Soori 한국역학회 2018 Epidemiology and Health Vol.40 No.-

OBJECTIVES:We analyzed dietary patterns using reduced rank regression (RRR), and assessed how well the scores extracted by RRR predicted stroke in comparison to the scores produced by partial least squares and principal component regression models. METHODS: Dietary data at baseline were used to extract dietary patterns using the 3 methods, along with 4 response variables: body mass index, fibrinogen, interleukin-6, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol. The analyses were based on 5,468 males and females aged 45-84 years who had no clinical cardiovascular disease, using data from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. RESULTS: The primary factor derived by RRR was positively associated with stroke incidence in both models. The first model was adjusted for sex and race and the second model was adjusted for the variables in model 1 as well as smoking, physical activity, family and sibling history of stroke, the use of any lipid-lowering medication, the use of any anti-hypertensive medication, hypertension, and history of myocardial infarction (model 1: hazard ratio [HR], 7.49; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.66 to 33.69; p for trend=0.01; model 2: HR, 6.83; 95% CI, 1.51 to 30.87 for quintile 5 compared with the reference category; p for trend=0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Based primarily on RRR, we identified that a dietary pattern high in fats and oils, poultry, non-diet soda, processed meat, tomatoes, legumes, chicken, tuna and egg salad, and fried potatoes and low in dark-yellow and cruciferous vegetables may increase the incidence of ischemic stroke.

Estimation of the population attributable fraction of road-related injuries due to speeding and passing in Iran

Fatemeh Khosravi Shadmani,Hamid Soori,Kamyar Mansori,Manoochehr Karami,Erfan Ayubi,Salman Khazaei 한국역학회 2016 Epidemiology and Health Vol.38 No.-

OBJECTIVES: Speeding and passing are considered to be the main human factors resulting in road traffic injuries (RTIs). This study aimed to estimate the population attributeable fraction (PAF) of speeding and passing in RTIs in rural Iran during 2012. METHODS: The contribution of speeding and passing to RTI-related morbidity and mortality was estimated using the PAF method. The prevalence of speeding and passing was obtained from the national traffic police data registry. A logistic regression model was used to measure the association between the above risk factors and RTIs. RESULTS: Speeding accounted for 20.96% and 16.61% of rural road-related deaths and injuries, respectively. The corresponding values for passing were 13.50% and 13.44%, respectively. Jointly, the PAF of these factors was 31.63% for road-related deaths and 27.81% for injuries. CONCLUSIONS: This study illustrates the importance of controlling speeding and passing as a high-priority aspect of public-health approaches to RTIs in Iran. It is recommended that laws restricting speeding and passing be enforced more strictly.

The association between physical activity and atrial fibrillation applying the Heaviside function in survival analysis:

Yaser Mokhayeri,Seyed Saeed Hashemi-Nazari,Mohammad Ali Mansournia,Hamid Soori,Soheila Khodakarim 한국역학회 2017 Epidemiology and Health Vol.39 No.-

OBJECTIVES: Although the effect of physical activity (PA) on the incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF) has been studied, contradictory results have been reported. Such discrepancies may reflect the different effects of various types of PA upon AF, as well as gender interactions. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate the associations of PA types (total, moderate/vigorous, and intentional), as well as walking pace, with AF risk in men and women. METHODS: Using the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis Typical Week Physical Activity Survey, 3 PA measures and walking pace were calculated among 6,487 men and women aged 45-84 years. The incidence of AF over approximately 11 years of follow-up was ascertained. The association of each PA measure and walking pace with AF incidence was estimated using multivariable Cox proportional hazard models. An extended Cox model with Heaviside functions (hv) of time was used to estimate the effects of time-varying covariates. RESULTS: During 11 years of follow-up (49,557 person-years), 242 new AF cases occurred. The incidence rate of AF was 48.83 per 10,000 person-years. The proportional hazard (PH) assumption for total PA among women was not met; hence, we used the hv to calculate the hazard ratio. Total PA in women in the hv2 analysis was negatively associated with AF in all 3 models, although for hv1 no significant association was observed. The PH assumption for walking pace among men was not met, and none of the hv showed a statistically significant association between walking pace and AF in men. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that PA is inversely associated with AF in women.

Decomposing gender disparity in total physical activity among Iranian adults

Ebrahim Rahimi,Seyed Saeed Hashemi-Nazari,Koorosh Etemad,Hamid Soori 한국역학회 2017 Epidemiology and Health Vol.39 No.-

OBJECTIVES: While gender differences in physical activity (PA) have been reported, their origin is not well understood. The present study aimed to identify factors contributing to this disparity. METHODS: This was a population-based cross-sectional study based on the 2011 surveillance of risk factors of non-communicable diseases that was conducted among Iranian adults. Multi-staged sampling was performed to obtain the required study sample. The primary outcome was gender differences in the prevalence of sufficient physical activity (SPA). Total physical activity (TPA) was calculated as metabolic equivalents (MET) per minute during a typical week, as recommended by the World Health Organization. On this basis, achieving 600 MET-min/wk or more was defined as SPA. The nonlinear Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition technique was used to explain the disparity. RESULTS: The predicted gap was 19.50%. About one-third of the gap was due to differences in the level of observable covariates. Among them, work status contributed the most (29.61%). A substantial portion of the gap remained unexplained by such differences, of which about 40.41% was related to unobservable variables. The differential effects of standard of living, ethnicity, and smoking status made the largest contribution, accounting for 37.36, 35.47, and 28.50%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Interventions to reduce the gender gap in PA should focus on increasing TPA among housewives and women with chronic diseases, as well as those with a higher standard of living. In addition, it is essential to explore the impact of ethnicity and smoking status on women’s TPA in order to promote health.

Impact of secondhand smoke exposure in former smokers on their subsequent risk of coronary heart disease: evidence from the population-based cohort of the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study

Masoumeh Sadeghi,Maryam S,Daneshpour,Soheila Khodakarim,Amir Abbas Momenan,Mahdi Akbarzadeh,Hamid Soori 한국역학회 2020 Epidemiology and Health Vol.42 No.-

OBJECTIVES: Cigarette smoking is an established, strong, and modifiable risk factor for coronary heart disease (CHD). However, little research has investigated CHD risk in former smokers who continue to be exposed to others’ cigarette smoke (former & secondhand smokers). METHODS: In the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study, a prospective population-based cohort (n=20,069) was followed up for a median period of 14.6 years. A subset of 8,050 participants of 30 years of age and older was analyzed, with first CHD events as the study outcome. Participants were categorized as never, former, current, secondhand, and former & secondhand smokers. Data on smoking intensity (cigarette/d) were also collected. A Cox proportional hazards regression model was applied to estimate the risk of CHD, taking into account the main potential confounders. RESULTS: The mean age of participants was 46.10 ±11.38 years, and they experienced 1,118 first CHD events (with most CHD cases in former smokers) during the follow-up period. The risk of CHD was highest in current smokers, followed in order by former & secondhand, former, and secondhand smokers (hazard ratio [HR], 1.99; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.65 to 2.39; HR, 1.55; 95% CI, 1.15 to 2.08; HR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.12 to 1.72; HR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.07 to 1.51, respectively), compared to never smokers. The risk of CHD increased with smoking intensity, which has been proposed as a preferable measure of smoking, indicating a dose-response pattern. CONCLUSIONS: The elevated risk of CHD in former & secondhand smokers was a noteworthy finding, with possible implications for health policy; however, further research is needed.

Avoidable Burden of Risk Factors for Serious Road Traffic Crashes in Iran: A Modeling Study

Fatemeh Khosravi Shadmani,Kamyar Mansori,Manoochehr Karami,Farid Zayeri,Reza Khosravi Shadman,Shiva Mansouri Hanis,Hamid Soori 대한예방의학회 2017 Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health Vol.50 No.2

Objectives: The aim of this study was to model the avoidable burden of the risk factors of road traffic crashes in Iran and to prioritize interventions to reduce that burden. Methods: The prevalence and the effect size of the risk factors were obtained from data documented by the traffic police of Iran in 2013. The effect size was estimated using an ordinal regression model. The potential impact fraction index was applied to calculate the avoidable burden in order to prioritize interventions. This index was calculated for theoretical, plausible, and feasible minimum risk level scenarios. The joint effects of the risk factors were then estimated for all the scenarios. Results: The highest avoidable burdens in the theoretical, plausible, and feasible minimum risk level scenarios for the non-use of child restraints on urban roads were 52.25, 28.63, and 46.67, respectively. In contrast, the value of this index for speeding was 76.24, 37.00, and 62.23, respectively, for rural roads. Conclusions: On the basis of the different scenarios considered in this research, we suggest focusing on future interventions to decrease the prevalence of speeding, the non-use of child restraints, the use of cell phones while driving, and helmet disuse, and the laws related to these items should be considered seriously.

Avoidable Burden of Risk Factors for Serious Road Traffic Crashes in Iran: A Modeling Study

Shadmani, Fatemeh Khosravi,Mansori, Kamyar,Karami, Manoochehr,Zayeri, Farid,Shadman, Reza Khosravi,Hanis, Shiva Mansouri,Soori, Hamid The Korean Society for Preventive Medicine 2017 Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health Vol.50 No.2

Objectives: The aim of this study was to model the avoidable burden of the risk factors of road traffic crashes in Iran and to prioritize interventions to reduce that burden. Methods: The prevalence and the effect size of the risk factors were obtained from data documented by the traffic police of Iran in 2013. The effect size was estimated using an ordinal regression model. The potential impact fraction index was applied to calculate the avoidable burden in order to prioritize interventions. This index was calculated for theoretical, plausible, and feasible minimum risk level scenarios. The joint effects of the risk factors were then estimated for all the scenarios. Results: The highest avoidable burdens in the theoretical, plausible, and feasible minimum risk level scenarios for the non-use of child restraints on urban roads were 52.25, 28.63, and 46.67, respectively. In contrast, the value of this index for speeding was 76.24, 37.00, and 62.23, respectively, for rural roads. Conclusions: On the basis of the different scenarios considered in this research, we suggest focusing on future interventions to decrease the prevalence of speeding, the non-use of child restraints, the use of cell phones while driving, and helmet disuse, and the laws related to these items should be considered seriously.