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철도여객수요예측을 위한 Holt-Winters 모형의 초기값 설정방법 비교
최태성(Tae-Sung Choi),김성호(Seong-Ho Kim) 한국철도학회 2004 철도저널 Vol.7 No.1
Railway passenger demand forecasts may be used directly, or as inputs to other optimization models use them to produce estimates of other activities. The optimization models require demand forecasts at the most detailed level. In this environment exponential smoothing forecasting methods such as Holt-Winters are appropriate because it is simple and inexpensive in terms of computation. There are several initialization methods for Holt-Winters Model. The purpose of this paper is to compare the initialization methods for Holt-Winters model.
A Modified Simplex Algorithm for Solving Linear Goal Programming Problems
최태성(Tae-Sung Choi) 인하대학교 산업경제연구소 1990 경상논집 Vol.4 No.-
This paper presents a modified simplex algorithm for solving linear goal programming problems. As an extension of the Schniederjans-Kwak approach, the technique offers a potential reduction in computational complexity as well as a simultaneous primal-dual relationship. A mathematical justification is presented in this paper along with a numerical exampe. The computer code based on this modified algorithm is also presented.
情報處理 接近方法에 의한 主觀的 個別確率 推定値의 結合方案
최태성(Tae-sung Choi),정우석(Woo-Seock Jeong) 인하대학교 산업경제연구소 1987 경상논집 Vol.1 No.-
This paper proposes a new weight-assignment method for the weighting average method in group decision making. This method decides the weights to be assigned to experts based on both amount of information and value of information which experts provide to a decision maker. A simple numerical example is also presented. Amount of information is decided based on expert's assessment and decision maker's knowledge on interest. The value of information is based on confidence of expert on the event. Expert's assessment is used in three ways; (1) probability itself (2) measure of confidence and (3) measure of amount of information. Three methods of individual probability aggregation which are widely used at present are reviewed and discussed.