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최관,한상열 ( Kwan Choi,Sang Yoel Han ) 한국산림과학회 1996 한국산림과학회지 Vol.85 No.1
Preparing the era of forest resources management requires studies on forest fire. This study attempted to develop forest fire occurrence model using meteorological characteristics for the practical purposes of forecasting forest fire danger rate. To accomplish this goal, the relationships between forest fire occurrence and meteorological characteristics are estimated. In the process, the forest fire occurrence pattern of the study region(Taegu-Kyungpook) is categorized by employing qualification IV method. The study region was divided into three areas such as, Taegu, Andong and Pohang area. The meteorological variables emerged as affective to forest fire occurrence are relative humidity, longitude of sunshine, and duration of precipitation. To estimate the probability of forest fire danger, forest fire occurrence of three areas are regressed on the time series data of affective meteorological variables using logistic and probit model. The effectiveness of the models estimated are tested and showed acceptable degree of goodness. Those models developed would be helpful to increase the efficiency of forest fire management such as detection of forest fire occurrence and effective disposition of forest fire fight equipments.
우루과이 라운드 ( UR ) 가 밤 재배농가에 미치는 영향
최관(Kwan Choi),한상열(Sang Yeol Han),우태명(Tae Myung Woo),성규철(Kyu Chul Sung) 한국산림과학회 1992 한국산림과학회지 Vol.81 No.3
Urguag Round(UR) has lots of implication in the forest product market as well as the other sectors of the economy. Chestnut, one of the major forest product in Korea, would be affected be free trade resulting from the agreement on UR. To establish effective policy measures dealing with negative effects of free trade, of any, the effect of UR on producers should be figured out. In this contest, the purposes of this study are Eli estimating the demand, supply- and its price functions of this market and t21 forecasting the effect of UR on growers. Using econometric method, demand, supply and price function of this market are estimated. The total amount of yearly money loss of growers due to free trade from 1992 to 2001 are estimated for four different scenarios. In each scenario, it is assumed that the tariffication reduction is 30%. 40%, 50% and 90%. Yearly money loss of chestnut growers at the year 2001 are forecasted such as 14 billion won, 18 billion won, 24 billion won and 25 billion won for the rate of tariffication reduction of 30%, 40%. 50%, and 90%. respectively.
폐지시장의 수요 · 공급 모델의 개발과 회수율 제고방안
최관(Kwan Choi),한상열(Sang Yoel Han) 한국산림과학회 1994 한국산림과학회지 Vol.83 No.2
Wastepaper recycling has significant implications not only in providing scarce raw material input for the paper industry but in environmental concerns such as reducing solid waste disposal, energy conservation and preservation of forest resources. The objectives of this study was ① to develop an econometric model of demand for and supply of wastepaper, ② to forecast wastepaper consumption and price to the year 2000 applying the econometric models estimated and ③ to estimate the elasticity of variables which are included in the wastepaper supply and demand equations. In this study wastepaper was classified into three groups, old newsprint, old corrugated and mixed For each group such as demand and supply equation were estimated. The demand equations were estimated as a function of paper and paper product consumption and wholesale price index and supply equations as a function of wastepaper price, one year lagged paper and paperproduct consumption and transportation price. Applying the econometric models to forcasting results in the future consumption and supply of wastepaper projected as 11.645 million MT and 7.396 million MT in 2000, respectively. The rate of wastepaper self -supply is forcasted about 63.5% in 2000. Especially, the rate of old neswprint self-supply is predicted about 16% which means about 2.2 million MT of old newsprint should be imported from foreign countries. Lastly, some policy measures to promote wastepaper recycling rate based upon economic and physical characteristics of wastepaper and market structure are suggested.
개방형과 폐쇄형질문에 의한 Contingent Valuation 의 순경제적 가치평가에 대한 비모수적검정 (非母數的檢定) : 무주리조트 스키장의 사례
한상열,최관 ( Sang Yoel Han,Kwan Choi ),Joe P . Colletti 한국산림과학회 1997 한국산림과학회지 Vol.86 No.1
The contingent valuation method(CVM) has been used to evaluate the economic value of nonmarket goods such as forest recreation. There are two commonly used CVM questionnaire formats: open-ended and closed-ended. This study evaluates the net economic value associated with day use downhill skiing, using CVM. A random, on-site survey of skiers in Muju, Korea generated the value estimates. In this paper a nonparametric test is introduced to find whether the difference between value estimates from open-ended and closed-ended formats are significantly different because the distributions of WTPs are non-normally distributed. The results show that the net economic benefits of a skier in Muju varies from ₩15.131 to ₩25,332. The closed-ended values were 1.15 to 1.67 times as large as the open-ended values, depending on the model specifications. In nonparametric test the mean WTPs of the open-ended and close-ended applications are significantly different. Its reason may be that closed-ended can be more reducing the incentive for strategic behavior than open-ended question. However, we cannot conclude that the closed-ended method is superior to the open-ended method.