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천병권,이민원 호남대학교 1998 호남대학교 학술논문집 Vol.19 No.1
A demand forecast for a Kwangju City Logistics Complex has been made in this paper. A forecasted shipments quantity is utilized to forecast industrial demands of the complex for the years 1999 and 2003, respectively. The forecasted size of the logistics complex is 317,000 pyung in 1999 and 613,000 pyung in 2003. We also analyze anticipated a cargo volume demand to determine how large the complex should be in order to satisfy such a demand. The size of the complex varies according to the utilization rate of the complex. For instance, a utilization rate of 25% will mandate a logistics complex of 362,000 pyung in 1999 and 540,000 pyung 2003. Forecasting future demand of the complex using either the shipments model or the cargo volume analysis model is not error-free. Demand forecasting is not a totally precise science. In an effort to make our predictions more reliable we must average the results of the two methods. Such calcuations require that 340,000 pyung in 1999 and 540,000 pyung in 2003 be allocated for the project, with a percentile distribution of 30% for facilities, 31% for the building lot area and 39% for supplementary facilities. In addition to forecasting the size of a logistics complex we also forecast the size of a depot: that is, 120,000 pyung in 1999, 160,000 pyung in 2003 for total area and 25,000 pyung in 1999, 30,000 pyung in 2003 for freight terminal and 70,000 pyung in the period for the wholesale center.
뷰캐넌의 클럽재이론에 관한 연구 : Emphasis on Pareto Optimality Condition 파레토최적조건을 중심으로
최성수,천병권 호남대학교 1997 호남대학교 학술논문집 Vol.18 No.3
Following its conclusion in Readings in Microeconomics, Professor Buchanan's seminal paper on the economic theory of clubs can now be regarded as a standard reference. The purpose of this paper is to provide an alternative analysis of the theory of clubs which, it is believed, will overcome some of the shortcomings of Buchanan's analysis. In this paper, we have to include another set of variables, the number of clubs, into our maximization ploblems. However, this is not necessary, as we can interpret a new club for same good as the consumption of a new good. It can easily be seen that our analysis is applicable even if the number of clubs exceeds one. While Buchanan's condition is satisfied only for certain numbers of individuals, the analysis of this paper is applicable to any number of individuals, whether with identical or with different tastes, and even to cases where some individuals may choose to belong to two or more clubs.
千炳權 湖南大學校 1985 호남대학교 학술논문집 Vol.5 No.-
Monetary aggregates play an Important role in the monetary policy as a policy target or a policy indicator. But there is considerable disagreement among economists on the appropriate definition of money. Theoritical definitions based on a priori method are neither precise nor universally accepted. A number of attempts have been made in recent years to define money empirically. Through their empirical study, Milton Friedman and David Meiselman found that the set of assets including currency, demand deposits and time deposits at commercial banks only is more appropriate to explain statistically aggregate nominal income in U.S.A. It has long been known that money stock and economic activity are positively correlated. This means that money is exogenoussin some sense in the money-income relationship. The causality/exogeniety test procedures proposed by Granger and Sims. The main empircal finding is that the hypothesis that causality is unidirectional from monty to income according to the postwar U.S data whereas the hypothesis that causality is unidirectional from income to money is rejected. Recent work extending the keynesian analysis of transactions, precautionary and speculative motives, for holding of diversified portfolios by individuals seeks to draw more precise implication about the interest rate that determine it than keynes's analysis did. Conventional forms of the demand for money function was Specified as follow. M/P = ?? Where X is scale factors and R is opportunity cost factors. In aldition, superior, rationale for the presence of a significant lagged term in the money demand function derives from the adaptive expectations model. Thus, In ?? = ?? As a scale variables of the demand for money function, income and wealth are considered and as a opportunity cost variables, the yields on assets, the expected inflation rate are considered. GNP or NNP have been used to measure the level of income as a proxy. As to wealth, Friedman suggested that a more inclusive concept, embodying the value concept suggested by friedman. As a opportunity cost variables, long run rate of interest and short run rate of interest are employed, The emprical finding is that the demand for money is negatively related to the rate of interest, to the expected rate of inflation. Finally the rate of interest may not affect the demand for money in the Less Development Countries because the economies of LDC'S are usually characterized by financial dualism. So we should employ other variables which can explain theirs economic phenomena.
千炳權 호남대학교 1986 호남대학교 학술논문집 Vol.6 No.1
This is concerned primarily with the income distribution theory from the physiocrats to the post - keynesian with the exception of the against stream economists. Physiocrats agreed on one basic proposition that wealth came ultimately from the land. Only land contained the life - giving forces of nature derived form God. Manufacturing could change only the form of wealth derived from nature, and commerce could change only its location and ownership. Land along could produce a surplus. Classical economists found the source of wealth in neither trade nor agriculture but in human labor. They declared that the necessary prerequisite for any commodity to have value was that it be the product of human labor. This theory became known as the labor theory of value. Especially, Ricardo's distribution theory was based on two separate principles which we may term the marginal principle and the surplus principles respectively. The marginal principle serves to explain the share of rent, and the surplus principle the division of the residue between wages and profits. Neoclassical economists who used the marginal analysis ignored the problem of income distribution. These new theologians of industrial society developed a theory proving that all factors of production - whether labor, land, or capital - earned a wage exactly equal to their contribution to the value of output. No one could exploit anyone else, there was no unearned surplus to be appropriated by the owners of capital, and full justice must prevail in the distribution of income. The worker received what he earned, no more and no less. This was called the theory of marginal productivity. In a post keynesian, there were two points of departure in the development of an explanation of determinants of the distribution of income. First, if marginal productivity could not provide a general explanation of the demand for labor, then the proposition that the wage could be determined by the marginal productivity of labor had to be abandoned. An altrenative approach to the distribution of income would require an explanation of how both the rate of profit on capital and the wage rate were determined before the explanation of distribution could be broached.