화폐(貨幣)·금융개입(金融介入)의 이론적(理論的) 근거(根據)에 대한 고찰(考察) : 중앙은행(中央銀行)의 존립근거(存立根據)에 대한 개관(槪觀)

좌승희,Jwa, Sung-hee 한국개발연구원 1990 韓國 開發 硏究 Vol.12 No.3

본고(本稿)서는, 최근 자유금융학파(自由金融學派)와 신화폐경제학과(新貨幣經濟學科)들의 등장으로 화폐(貨幣) 금융문제(金融問題)에서의 자유경쟁(自由競爭) 및 자유방임주의적(自由放任主義的) 사고가 새롭게 확산되고 있는 시점(時點)에서, 정부(政府) 및 중앙은행(中央銀行)의 화폐(貨幣) 금융개입(金融介入)의 이론적(理論的) 근거(根據)와 그에 관련된 논쟁(論爭)을 다음의 6가지 논거(論據)들을 중심으로 개관해 보았다 : (1) 자유금융하(自由金融下)의 銀行券(은행권) 초과발행(超過發行) 가능성(可能性), (2) 화폐사용에 있어서의 외부경제효과(外部經濟效果)와 화폐제도의 공공재적(公共財的) 성격(性格) (3) 화폐발행업무의 규모(規模)의 경제(經濟)와 자연독점적(自然獨占的) 성격(性格), (4) 실물부문(實物部門)의 불안정성(不安定性)과 거시안정화정책(巨視安定化政策)의 필요성, (5) 은행금융시장(銀行金融市場)의 불안정성(不安定性)과 은행파산(銀行破産)의 외부효과(外部效果), (6) 소액거래자(少額去來者) 및 예금자(預金者)의 보호(保護) 이러한 논거들에 의하면 외부화폐(外部貨幣)(outside money)의 공급은 전형적인 공공재이론(公共財理論)이나 기술적(技術的) 독점주장(獨占主張)이 적용되는 경우이기 때문에 외부화폐제도(外部貨幣制度)의 유지에 있어서 정부(政附)나 중앙은행(中央銀行) 독점(獨占) 및 개입(介入)이 불가피하고 또한 바람직하지만, 내부화폐(內部貨幣)(inside money)제도(制度)의 경우는 적절한 최소한의 안전장치만 강구된다면 최근의 자유금융학파(自由金融學派) 및 신화폐경제학과(新貨幣經濟學科)들의 주장과 같이 사적(私的) 자유경쟁(自由競爭)이 보다 활성화되도록 하는 것이 바람직할 것으로 판단된다 . 한편 외부화폐제도(外部貨幣制度)에의 개입(介入)에 따른 (정부(政府) 및) 중앙은행(中央銀行)의 거시통화정책기능(巨視通貨政策機能)은 물론, 보다 자유화(自由化)된 내부화폐제도하(內部貨幣制度下)에서도 중앙은행(中央銀行)의 최종대여자기능(最終貸與者機能)과 미시적(微視的) 감독기능(監督機能)은 동(同) 제도(制度)의 안전성(安全性)을 유지하기 위해 중요한 역할을 할 것으로 보인다. This paper reviews the rationale of monetary and banking intervention by an outside authority, either the government or the central bank, and seeks to delineate clearly the optimal limits to the monetary and banking deregulation currently underway in Korea as well as on a global scale. Furthermore, this paper seeks to establish an objective and balanced view on the role of the central bank, especially in light of the current discussion on the restructuring of Korea's central bank, which has been severely contaminated by interest-group politics. The discussion begins with the recognition that the modern free banking school and the new monetary economics are becoming formidable challenges to the traditional role of the government or the central bank in the monetary and banking sector. The paper reviews six arguments that have traditionally been presented to support intervention: (1) the possibility of an over-issue of bank notes under free banking instead of central banking; (2) externalities in and the public good nature of the use of money; (3) economies of scale and natural monopoly in producing money; (4) the need for macro stabilization policy due to the instability of the real sector; (5) the external effects of bank failure due to the inherent instability of the existing banking system; and (6) protection for small banknote users and depositors. Based on an analysis of the above arguments, the paper speculates on the optimal role of the government or central bank in the monetary and banking system and the optimal degree of monetary and banking deregulation. By contrast to the arguments for free banking or laissez-faire monetary systems, which become fashionable in recent years, monopoly and intervention by the government or central bank in the outside money system can be both necessary and optimal. In this case, of course, an over-issue of fiat money may be possible due to political considerations, but this issue is beyond the scope of this paper. On the other hand, the issue of inside monies based on outside money could indeed be provided for optimally under market competition by private institutions. A competitive system in issuing inside monies would help realize, to the maxim urn extent possible, external economies generated by using a single outside money. According to this reasoning, free banking activities will prevail in the inside money system, while a government monopoly will prevail in the outside money system. This speculation, then, also implies that the monetary and banking deregulation currently underway should and most likely will be limited to the inside money system, which could be liberalized to the fullest degree. It is also implied that it will be impractical to deregulate the outside money system and to allow market competition to provide outside money, in accordance with the arguments of the free banking school and the new monetary economics. Furthermore, the role of the government or central bank in this new environment will not be significantly different from their current roles. As far as the supply of fiat money continues to be monopolized by the government, the control of the supply of base money and such related responsibilities as monetary policy (argument(4)) and the lender of the last resort (argument (5)) will naturally be assigned to the outside money supplier. However, a mechanism for controlling an over-issue of fiat money by a monopolistic supplier will definitely be called for (argument(1)). A monetary policy based on a certain policy rule could be one possibility. More importantly, the deregulation of the inside money system would further increase the systemic risk inherent in the current fractional banking system, while enhancing the efficiency of the system (argument (5)). In this context, the role of the lender of the last resort would again become an instrument of paramount importance in alleviating liquidity crises in the early stages, thereby disallowing the possibility of a wi

「꺾기」의 경제학(經濟學)과 통화량(通貨量) 효과분석(效果分析)

좌승희,Jwa, Sung-hee 한국개발연구원 1992 韓國 開發 硏究 Vol.14 No.1

본고(本稿)는 최근 논란이 되고 있는 금융기관(金融機關)들의 꺾기관행의 의의와 꺾기의 통화량효과(通貨量效果)를 분석함으로써 예대상계(預貸相計)를 통한 정부(政府)의 꺾기규제정책의 효과를 규명해 보고자 하는 데 그 목적이 있다. 꺾기란 여신(與信)(대출(貸出))에 대응해서 일정한 금액의 수신(受信)(예금(預金))을 요구하는 금융관행을 통칭하는데, 기존 문헌에 의하면 이윤극대화(利潤極大化)를 추구하는 금융기관이 정보(情報)의 비대칭성이나 예금(預金) 및 대출금리규제(貸出金利規制)와 같은 금융규제(金融規制) 등에 따른 금융시장의 불완전성을 극복하기 위해 도입하는 관행으로서 궁극적으로는 금융자원배분(金融資源配分)의 왜곡을 시정하는 데 기여하게 된다. 한편 꺾기의 통화량효과(通貨量效果)는 꺾기가 일국(一國)의 통화승수(通貨乘數)에 미치는 효과에 의존하게 되는데, 꺾기의 통화승수효과(通貨乘數效果)는 총대출 중 예금으로 회귀하는 적정예금회귀율(滴定預金回歸率)과 은행(銀行)들의 적정예금지급준비율(滴定預金支給準備率)에 미치는 꺾기의 효과에 의존하게 된다. 이론적으로 이들 효과의 방향은 불분명한데 실증분석결과에 의하면 우리나라의 경우 꺾기의 통화량효과(通貨量效果)는 유의성(有意性)이 없는 것으로 나타나고 있다. 따라서 이에 의하면 꺾기가 인위적으로 통화량(通貨量)을 증가시킬 것이라는 통념은 지지되지 않고 있을 뿐만 아니라, 예대상계정책(預貸相計政策)을 통해 통화량(通貨量)을 감소시킴으로써 여유대출자금(餘裕貸出資金)을 창출할 수 있을 것이라는 기대가 실현되기도 어렵다 할 것이다. 이에 따라 앞으로 예대상계(預貸相計)를 통화량관리(通貨量管理)의 방편으로 이용하고자 하거나 이를 통해 대출여유자금(貸出餘裕資金)을 창출하고자 하는 정책의 추진은 대단히 신중을 기하는 것이 바람직하다 할 것이다. This paper purports to analyze the economic rationale of compensating balance requirements and its impact on money supply. This practice has recently been severely criticized for artificially increasing the money supply and, therefore, limiting the nation's aggregate lending policy under the tight constraint of the given money supply target. A review of the existing literature implies that compensating balance requirements is a banking practice which leads to corrections in the distortion of financial resource allocation due to the imperfection of financial market stemming from asymmetric information and/or financial regulations on deposit and lending rates. Therefore, the economic rationale of this practice is deemed to improve the efficiency of financial resource allocation. On the other hand, the macroeconomic impact of compensating balance requirements on the money supply depends on the impact on the money multiplier, which in turn depends on the desired ratio of deposit that people wish to maintain on the money borrowed from the banking system, and on the desired reserve ratio that the banking system would like to hold for deposit withdrawal. If the compensating balance requirements could increase the desired ratio of deposit to borrowing (bank lending), it will increase the available amount of total reserve within the banking system and, in turn, the money multiplier. However, this channel has not been fully analyzed in the literature, and the direction of the effect is ambiguous. If the practice could reduce the turn-over rate of deposit and, thereby, reduce the desired reserve ratio of the banking system, then it will also increase the money multiplier. While this channel operates unambiguously toward increasing the money multiplier, this effect will be limited by the extent that the banking system holds the excess reserve over the required reserve because the excess reserve will set the maximum amount for the desired reserve to fall. This paper tries to determine the effect on the money supply by empirically estimating the multiplier and the desired ratio of deposit to lending equations as functions of the ratio of compensating balance to the related lending, which is not observable and is estimated for the regression purpose. The results suggest that the effect of compensating balance requirements on the money supply in Korea does not exist or is very tenuous even if it could operate. Therefore, this paper concludes that the well publicized policy of cross cancelling the compensating balance and the related lending will not be effective at controlling the money supply and increasing the amount of loans without expanding the money supply.

법치경제 개혁의 길

좌승희, 조성봉(Sung-Hee JWA),Sung Bong CHO 한국경제연구원 2004 한국경제연구원 연구보고서 Vol.2004 No.-

Sung-Hee JWA and Sung Bong CHO The establishment of the rule of law in the social and economics spheres is fundamental towards effective and practical reform of a country’s legal and institutional environment. Such reform must take place under the rule of law, and not through human or administrative discretion. We claim that establishing ‘a law-governed economy,’ which is defined as the operation of an economy under the rule of law, is an indispensible feature for Korea’s proper economic reform. In Korea, many factors presently hinder the establishment of a law-governed economy, of which the most important are the persistent government intervention into markets, the government’s excessive discretionary power, the weak check and balance among the three government branches, the absence of regulatory bodies’ independence, the unclear division of labor among government bodies, and the ‘egalitarian trap’ embedded in the Korean culture. We argue in this paper that political reform is a prerequisite to a law-governed economy. There should be a conscious effort to remove entry and exit barriers in political markets, as well as reduce significantly its high-cost structure. Through such a process, and by improving the country’s economic institutional environment, more effective economic reform, especially of corporations, will then become possible. Regarding corporate sector reform, there is a need to establish a proper market disciplinary system by strengthening the monitoring roles of various market participants, thus replacing the existing regulatory framework that aims to directly control corporate behavior.

한국(韓國)의 아시아신흥공업국(新興工業國) 및 일본(日本)과의 대미수출경쟁(對美輸出競爭) : 환율효과(換率效果)를 중심(中心)으로

좌승희,Jwa, Sung-hee 한국개발연구원 1990 韓國 開發 硏究 Vol.12 No.2

This paper analyzes U.S. demand for imports from Asian NIEs and Japan, utilizing the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) developed by Deaton and Muellbauer, with an emphasis on the effect of changes in the exchange rate. The empirical model assumes a two-stage budgeting process in which the first stage represents the allocation of total U.S. demand among three groups: the Asian NIEs and Japan, six Western developed countries, and the U.S. domestic non-tradables and import competing sector. The second stage represents the allocation of total U.S. imports from the Asian NIEs and Japan among them, by country. According to the AIDS model, the share equation for the Asia NIEs and Japan in U.S. nominal GNP is estimated as a single equation for the first stage. The share equations for those five countries in total U.S. imports are estimated as a system with the general demand restrictions of homogeneity, symmetry and adding-up, together with polynomially distributed lag restrictions. The negativity condition is also satisfied for all cases. The overall results of these complicated estimations, using quarterly data from the first quarter of 1972 to the fourth quarter of 1989, are quite promising in terms of the significance of individual estimators and other statistics. The conclusions drawn from the estimation results and the derived demand elasticities can be summarized as follows: First, the exports of each Asian NIE to the U.S. are competitive with (substitutes for) Japan's exports, while complementary to the exports of fellow NIEs, with the exception of the competitive relation between Hong Kong and Singapore. Second, the exports of each Asian NIE and of Japan to the U.S. are competitive with those of Western developed countries' to the U.S, while they are complementary to the U.S.' non-tradables and import-competing sector. Third, as far as both the first and second stages of budgeting are coneidered, the imports from each Asian NIE and Japan are luxuries in total U.S. consumption. However, when only the second budgeting stage is considered, the imports from Japan and Singapore are luxuries in U.S. imports from the NIEs and Japan, while those of Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong are necessities. Fourth, the above results may be evidenced more concretely in their implied exchange rate effects. It appears that, in general, a change in the yen-dollar exchange rate will have at least as great an impact, on an NIE's share and volume of exports to the U.S. though in the opposite direction, as a change in the exchange rate of the NIE's own currency $vis-{\grave{a}}-vis$ the dollar. Asian NIEs, therefore, should counteract yen-dollar movements in order to stabilize their exports to the U.S.. More specifically, Korea should depreciate the value of the won relative to the dollar by approximately the same proportion as the depreciation rate of the yen $vis-{\grave{a}}-vis$ the dollar, in order to maintain the volume of Korean exports to the U.S.. In the worst case scenario, Korea should devalue the won by three times the maguitude of the yen's depreciation rate, in order to keep market share in the aforementioned five countries' total exports to the U.S.. Finally, this study provides additional information which may support empirical findings on the competitive relations among the Asian NIEs and Japan. The correlation matrices among the strutures of those five countries' exports to the U.S.. during the 1970s and 1980s were estimated, with the export structure constructed as the shares of each of the 29 industrial sectors' exports as defined by the 3 digit KSIC in total exports to the U.S. from each individual country. In general, the correlation between each of the four Asian NIEs and Japan, and that between Hong Kong and Singapore, are all far below .5, while the ones among the Asian NIEs themselves (except for the one between Hong Kong and Singapore) all greatly exceed .5. If there exists a tendency on the part of the U.S. 본고(本稿)는 AIDS(Almost Ideal Demand System) 수요모형(需要模型)을 이용하여 한국(韓國) 등 아시아 신흥공업국(新興工業國)과 일본(日本)을 포함하는 아시아 5국(國)으로부터의 미국(美國)의 수입수요(輸入需要)를 분석함으로써 이들간의 대미수출경쟁관계(對美輸出競爭關係)를 분석하고 있는데, 특히 환율변동(換率變動)이 이들 5개국(個國)의 대미수출(對美輸出)에 미치는 효과를 중점적으로 분석하고 있다. 분석결과에 의하면, 아시아신흥공업 4국(國)은 일본(日本)과는 경쟁적인 반면 서로간에는, 홍콩과 싱가포르간의 경쟁적인 관계를 제외하면, 보완적인 관계를 유지하고 있다. 그리고 이들 아시아 5국(國)은 모두가 서구선진국그룹에 대해서는 경쟁적인 반면 미국(美國)의 국내재(國內財)와는 보완적인 관계를 보이는 것으로 관찰되었다. 한편 이러한 결과에 따라 환율효과(換率效果)를 분석해 보면, 한국(韓國)의 경우 엔화(貨)의 대미(對美)달러환율(換率)이 1% 인상되면 대미수출물량(對美輸出物量)을 일정 수준에 유지하고자 할 경우는 원화(貨)의 대미(對美)달러환율(換率)도 약 1% 정도는 인상되어야 하지만, 대미수출점유율(對美輸出占有率)을 일정 수준에 유지하려면 원화(貨)의 대미(對美)달러환율(換率)은 최악의 경우 약 3%까지도 인상되어야 하는 것으로 나타났다. 이와 같이 한국(韓國)은 대미수출시장점유율(對美輸出市場占有率)이나 수출물량(輸出物量)의 유지를 위해서, 원화(貨)의 대미(對美)달러환율(換率)이 여타 NICS통화환율(通貨換率)의 움직임보다도 오히려 엔화(貨)의 대미(對美)달러환율(換率)의 움직임을 보다 잘 반영할 수 있도록 함으로써 엔화(貨)의 대미(對美)달러환율인상(換率引上)에 따른 수출저상효과(輸出沮喪效果)를 상쇄시켜 나가야 할 것이라는 시사를 얻게 되었다.

우리나라 은행산업(銀行産業)의 효율성분석(效率性分析)과 제도개선방안(制度改善方案)

좌승희,Jwa, Sung-hee 한국개발연구원 1992 韓國 開發 硏究 Vol.14 No.2

This paper estimates a translog cost function for the Korea's banking industry and derives various implications on the prospect for the Korean banking structure in the future based on the estimated efficiency indicators for the banking sector. The Korean banking industry is permitted to operate trust business to the full extent and the security business to a limited extent, while it is formally subjected to the strict, specialized banking system. Security underwriting and investment businesses are allowed in a very limited extent only for stocks and bonds of maturity longer than three year and only up to 100 percent of the bank paid-in capital. Until the end of 1991, the ceiling was only up to 25 percent of the total balance of the demand deposits. However, they are prohibited from the security brokerage business. While the in-house integration of security businesses with the traditional business of deposit and commercial lending is restrictively regulated as such, Korean banks can enter the security business by establishing subsidiaries in the industry. This paper, therefore, estimates the efficiency indicators as well as the cost functions, identifying the in-house integrated trust business and security investment business as important banking activities, for various cases where both the production and the intermediation function approaches in modelling the financial intermediaries are separately applied, and the banking businesses of deposit, lending and security investment as one group and the trust businesses as another group are separately and integrally analyzed. The estimation results of the efficiency indicators for various cases are summarized in Table 1 and Table 2. First, security businesses exhibit economies of scale but also economies of scope with traditional banking activities, which implies that in-house integration of the banking and security businesses may not be a nonoptimal banking structure. Therefore, this result further implies that the transformation of Korea's banking system from the current, specialized system to the universal banking system will not impede the improvement of the banking industry's efficiency. Second, the lending businesses turn out to be subjected to diseconomies of scale, while exhibiting unclear evidence for economies of scope. In sum, it implies potential efficiency gain of the continued in-house integration of the lending activity. Third, the continued integration of the trust businesses seems to contribute to improving the efficiency of the banking businesses, since the trust businesses exhibit economies of scope. Fourth, deposit services and fee-based activities, such as foreign exchange and credit card businesses, exhibit economies of scale but constant returns to scope, which implies, the possibility of separating those businesses from other banking and trust activities. The recent trend of the credit card business being operated separately from other banking activities by an independent identity in Korea as well as in the global banking market seems to be consistent with this finding. Then, how can the possibility of separating deposit services from the remaining activities be interpreted? If one insists a strict definition of commercial banking that is confined to deposit and commercial lending activities, separating the deposit service will suggest a resolution or a disappearance of banking, itself. Recently, however, there has been a suggestion that separating banks' deposit and lending activities by allowing a depository institution which specialize in deposit taking and investing deposit fund only in the safest securities such as government securities to administer the deposit activity will alleviate the risk of a bank run. This method, in turn, will help improve the safety of the payment system (Robert E. Litan, What should Banks Do? Washington, D.C., The Brookings Institution, 1987). In this context, the possibility of separating the deposit activity will imply that 본고(本稿)에서는 우리나라 은행산업(銀行産業)의 트랜스로그비용함수(費用函數)와 규모(規模) 및 범위(範圍)의 경제성(經濟性), 비용(費用)의 보완성(補完性) 그리고 경쟁적(競爭的) 생존력(生存力) 등 효율성지표들을 추정함으로써 은행산업(銀行産業)의 효율성(效率性)을 평가하고 제도개선방향(制度改善方向)에 대한 시사점을 논하였다. 추정결과에 의하면, 우선 규모(規模)의 경제성(經濟性)의 경우는 은행대출(銀行貸出)이 규모(規模)의 비경제하(非經濟下)에 있고 모든 다른 업무(業務)들은 규모(規模)의 경제(經濟)를 시현하고 있지만, 전업무에 걸친 규모(規模)의 경제(經濟)는 부재(不在)하는 것으로 관찰된다. 다음, 범위(範圍)의 경제(經濟)의 경우는 유가증권투자(有價證券投資)와 신탁자산(信託資産) 및 수신(受信) 등은 범위(範圍)의 경제하(經濟下)에 있는 반면, 은행예금(銀行預金)은 범위(範圍)의 비경제하(非經濟下)에 있고 전업무에 걸친 범위(範圍)의 경제(經濟)는 강한 것으로 관찰되고 있다. 그리고 비용보완성(費用補完性)의 경우는 유가증권투자(有價證券投資)가 은행대출(銀行貸出), 예금(預金) 및 신탁업무(信託業務)와, 그리고 신탁자산운용업무(信託資産運用業務)가 은행자산운용업무(銀行資産運用業務)와 각각 비용보완관계(費用補完關係)를 보이고 있는 반면, 은행예금(銀行預金)은 특히 은행대출(銀行貸出)과 그리고 신탁자산업무(信託資産業務)와 경쟁관계에 있다. 한편 은행산업(銀行産業)에는 경쟁적(競爭的) 생존력(生存力)이 부재(不在)하는 것으로 관찰되고 있다. 이상의 결과들의 시사점을 정리하면, 우선 은행대출(銀行貸出)은 상대적으로 규모를 축소하고 여타의 모든 은행업무(銀行業務)나 신탁업무(信託業務)들은 규모를 확대함으로써 효율성제고(效率性提高)에 기여할 수 있을 것이며, 은행예금(銀行預金)과 은행주변업무는 앞으로 금융(金融)의 심화(深化)가 진행되면 여타업무에서 분리되어 각각 독립 운영될 가능성이 높다. 유가증권업무(有價證券業務)와 신탁자산(信託資産) 및 수신업무(受信業務)들을 추가확대함으로써 은행업무(銀行業務)의 효율성(效率性)이 증대될 수 있을 것으로 보여 겸업주의(兼業主義) 은행제도(銀行制度)의 타당성은 높지만, 은행산업(銀行産業)의 자연독점적인 성격은 부재(不在)하여 섣부른 규모(規模)만의 확대(擴大)는 오히려 경쟁력(競爭力)을 저하시킬 수도 있을 것이다.

금융(金融)의 전업(專業) 및 겸업화(兼業化) 이론(理論): 금융산업조직론(金融産業組織論)의 모색(摸索)

좌승희,Jwa, Sung-hee 한국개발연구원 1991 韓國 開發 硏究 Vol.13 No.1

최근의 세계금융산업(世界金融産業)은 이종금융업무간(異種金融業務間)의 통합(統合)(겸업(兼業))과 동시에 이와는 반대로 개별업무(個別業務)의 분할현상(分割現象)을 동시에 같이 경험하고 있는데, 본고(本稿)는 이러한 금융산업조직(金融産業組織)의 내생적(內生的) 재편현상(再編現象)을 체계적으로 설명할 수 있는 금융산업조직이론(金融産業組織理論)을 모색하는 데 그 목적이 있다. 기존의 전문화(專門化)와 겸업화이론(兼業化理論)을 통합한 잠정적 분석체계는 대체로 다음과 같은 시사점을 주고 있다. 첫째로, 독자적으로는 규모(規模)의 경제(經濟)가 강하고 여타 업무와는 범위(範圍)의 비경제하(非經濟下)에 있거나 범위(範圍)의 경제(經濟)가 약한 업무는 기존 업무세트에서 분할(分割) 전문화(專門化)될 것이다. 둘째로, 여타업무와는 범위(範圍)의 경제(經濟)가 강하면서, 독자적으로는 규모(規模)의 비경제하(非經濟下)에 있거나 혹은 규모(規模)의 경제(經濟)가 약한 업무는 겸업(兼業)될 것이다. 셋째로, 자유금융하(自由金融下)의 경쟁금융산업균형(競爭金融産業均衡)은 겸업기업(兼業企業)과 전업기업(專業企業)이 공존하는 혼합균형(混合均衡)이 될 것이다. 넷째로, 금융산업조직(金融産業組織)의 국가별 차이는 금융시장(金融市場) 및 수요규모(需要規模)의 차이에 의해 결정되며, 최근 진행되고 있는 금융(金融)의 세계화(世界化) 국제화(國際化)는 각국이 직면하게 될 금융시장(金融市場)의 규모를 균등화시킴으로써 장기적으로 각국 금융산업조직(金融産業組織)의 동질화(同質化)를 촉진시킬 것이다. 다섯째로, 금융제도(金融制度)에 대한 인위적 규제가 없다면 겸업주의(兼業主義) 은행제도(銀行制度)는 금융시장(金融市場)의 규모(規模)가 상대적으로 작은 경제에서, 전업주의(專業主義) 은행제도(銀行制度)는 금융시장의 규모가 상대적으로 큰 경제에서 주로 관찰되게 될 것이다. 본고(本稿)는 이러한 시사점들을 응용하여 주요국에 있어서의 전업주의(專業主義)와 겸업주의(兼業主義) 은행제도(銀行制度)의 역사적 변천과정을 각국 금융시장규모(金融市場規模)의 변천과정에 의해 설명하고, 현재 구조변화(構造變化)를 경험하고 있는 세계각국(世界各國) 금융산업조직(金融産業組織)은 장기적으로 구조가 동질화(同質化)되면서 혼합균형상태(混合均衡狀態)로 이행해 나갈 것으로 전망하고 있다. This paper is intended as an introductory essay to explain endogenous changes in the scope of firm activities in the competitive structure of a deregulated, multi-product financial industry. Recently, the global financial industry has been experiencing a widespread reshuffling in its activities, reflecting both consolidation and specialization. The spread of the universal banking system, which involves the integration of various kinds of financial activities, has resulted in the so-called financial supermarket. At the same time, the traditional set of banking activities has been unbundled into so-called financial boutiques. A relevant question is where the current reshuffling process of integration and disintegration in financial activities might lead the financial industry. However, presently popular theories of the financial industry are not really appropriate for the analysis of this issue. This paper attempts to integrate the theory of specialization [George J. Stigler, "The Division of Labor is Limited by the Extent of the Market," Journal of Political Economy, Vol. LIX, No.3, June 1951] and the theory of the multi-product firm [William J. Baumol, John C. Panzar, and Robert D. Willig, Contestable Markets and the Theory of Industry Structure, Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, Inc., New York, 1982] and to apply the resulting hybrid theory, a theory on the scope of financial activity, to the financial industry. The implications of this theory for the issues raised above are formalized under five hypotheses on the reshuffling of financial activities as listed below: Hypothesis I: The differences in the organization of financial industries among countries are determined by differences in the size of the financial markets, other things being equal. Hypothesis II: A financial firm will separate those financial activities simultaneously having relatively strong economies of scale and relatively weak economies of scope (alternatively, diseconomies of scope) from other activities. Conversely, the firm will integrate those activities simultaneously having relatively weak economies of scale (alternatively, diseconomies of scale) and relatively strong economies of scope with incumbent activities. Hypothesis III: A competitive equilibrium in the deregulated financial industry will consist of both specialized and multi-product financial firms, resulting in a mixed form of specialized and universal banking systems. Hypothesis IV: As world financial markets fully integrate and all countries consequently face this single, common world market, the financial structures of individual countries will become increasingly similar. Hypothesis V: A more universal banking system will dominate the deregulated financial industry in countries with relatively small financial markets, while a more specialized banking system will dominate in countries with relatively large financial markets. However, equilibrium will ultimately be mixed, with specialized and universal banks coexisting, as stated in Hypothesis III. Based on these hypotheses, this paper interprets the historical development of specialized vs. universal banking systems in major industrial countries as a process driven by the evolution of the financial market in each country - i.e. the change in the size of the financial market over time. In addition, this paper anticipates that the final equilibrium of the world financial industry, which is currently under the pressure of financial innovations and deregulation, will be a mixed equilibrium with both specialized boutiques and universal supermarket-type financial firms, instead of an exclusively specialized or universal banking system. Future research should seek continued theoretical elaboration and empirical verification of this paper's hypotheses.

자본주의 선언: 자본주의경제는 기업경제다

좌승희 ( Sung-hee Jwa ) 한국경제학회 2021 한국경제포럼 Vol.14 No.1

본고는 자본주의경제가 기업조직이 주도하는 기업경제임을 이론적 분석과 역사적 경험을 토대로 논증하는데 목적이 있다. 인류가 발명한 사회적 기술인 주식회사 기업제도는 칼 마르크스의 노동자착취수단이라는 낙인과 시장중심 경제학의 무시에도 불구하고 산업혁명을 일으키고 오늘날 자본주의경제 번영을 이끌고 있다. 기업은 시장과 마찬가지로 경제적 성과에 따른 선택과 차별적 보상을 통해 동기를 부여함으로써 동반성장을 유도하는 장치이다. 그러나 기업조직은 합의에 의존하는 시장거래와는 달리 명령을 통해 자원을 배분하는 장치이기 때문에 시장에 비해 거래비용을 절약하여 시장실패를 교정할 수 있을 뿐만 아니라, 내부 생산요소의 성과를 감시하고 평가하는데 시장보다 더 효율적이다. 본고는 시장과 정부는 물론 기업의 경제발전 역할을 명시적으로 도입한 경제발전의 일반이론을 제시함으로써 자본주의 경제발전의 본질을 규명하고 자본주의는 기업경제라는 자본주의 선언을 이론적으로 입증하였다. The purpose of this paper is to argue that the capitalist economy is a corporate economy dominated by corporate organizations based on theoretical analysis and historical experience. The joint-stock company system, a social technology invented by mankind, despite Karl Marx’s stigma as a means of exploitation and ignorance of market-oriented economics, has led to the prosperity of the capitalist economy today. Like the market, the corporate organization is a device that induces shared growth by motivating production factors through selection and differential compensation based on economic performance. However, unlike market transactions that rely on consensus, the corporate organization is a device that internally allocates resources through hierarchical control, so it can not only correct market failures by saving transaction costs, but also monitor and evaluate the performance of production factors more efficiently. By presenting a general theory of economic development that explicitly introduced the role of economic development of the corporation as well as the market and the government, this paper clarified the nature of capitalist economic development and, thereby, could theoretically substantiate the capitalist manifesto that capitalist economy is a corporate economy.

한국 정치시장의 특성과 정치개혁과제

좌승희(Sung-Hee Jwa),한현옥(Hyun-Ok Han) 한국경제연구원 2002 제도연구시리즈 Vol.- No.4

A political market can be defined as a market where public services are provided by politicians and consumed by voters. To a large extent, the characteristics and efficiency of a market is determined by the existence and the degree of entry barriers to that market. As entry to a political market occurs through elections, the degree of entry barriers to such political markets can be identified by taking a closer look at the electoral processes. Mostly based on empirical evidence from Korea's general elections, this paper analyses the characteristics of political markets in Korea. According to the our analyses, a clear difference in the election rates among candidates from the ruling party and opposition parties may be inferred That is, results show that a candidate from the ruling party has a much higher chance of being elected than one from an opposition party. Coupled with an incumbency advantage, the 'ruling party premium' plays a decisive role in the general elections

금융기업 겸업화의 국제비교분석과 시사점

좌승희(Sung-Hee Jwa),이인실(Insill Yi) 한국경제연구원 2001 한국경제연구원 연구보고서 Vol.2001 No.-

Business diversification in the financial sector (so called universal banking) has become increasingly widespread since the latter half of the 1980s. The key feature of universal banking is the triple combination of commercial banking, investment banking, and insurance businesses. In a large number of countries, various long-standing laws and customs that have separated commercial banking from the securities and other business activities are promptly being removed. Although differences across countries still remain in terms of their structure, power, and regulatory framework, banking activities have become much more uniform internationally. More Important than any single similarity in the legal and regulatory systems, or the actual practice of banking, is the common trend in banking philosophy Increasing competition in the financial sector, as well as the rapid advancement of information technology, should be credited for encouraging this convergence. This study examines business diversification of financial companies using macro and micro level data of 19 countries for the period 1996 to 1999 Specifically, we use the Standard Industrial Classlfication(SIC) code to measure the level of diversification, which is here defined as the number of sectors or industries in which a given financial firm operates This paper investigates those factors that may influence the financial firms' diversification decisions and their effects on the financial system which include its laws, regulations, and various financial activities We use cross-country data at both the financial firm level as well as the international level. Five major hypotheses are tested to examine the relationship between business diversification and industrial organization in the financial sector. The specific features of interest include the size of the financial firm, the size of the country's financial market, the ratio of the direct to indirect financial markets, and the size of the country's economy. We also consider other mstltutional environmental factors that may affect the diversification behavior of financial firms. In order to raise the competitiveness and the efficiency of the Korean financial system, this study suggests that the banking system should allow individual financial firms to enlarge their optional breadth through business diversification.

한국영화산업 구조변화와 영화산업정책 - 수직적 결합을 중심으로 -

좌승희(Sung-Hee Jwa),이태규(Taekyu Lee) 한국경제연구원 2006 한국경제연구원 연구보고서 Vol.2006-01 No.-

지난 10여 년간 한국영화산업은 급속한 성장을 하였고 최근 몇 년간 한국영화는 50%를 넘는 시장점유율을 기록하고 있으며 2004년에는 시장점유율이 60%에 육박하는 등 높은 성장세를 나타내고 있다. 이와 같은 한국영화산업의 성장요인에 대해 여러 가지 견해가 제시되어 왔지만 영화산업의 구조적 측면에서의 고찰은 제대로 이루어지지 않았다. 과거 1960년대 후반에도 최근 한국영화의 성공과 같이 1억 명이 넘은 총 관객 수, 50%대에 이르는 시장점유율 등 수치적인 측면에서는 비슷한 양상을 보인 적이 있다. 하지만 그 당시와 지금은 영화산업의 구조적 측면에서 질적으로 다른 양상을 보이고 있으며 그 구조적 차이가 한국영화산업의 성장에 있어서 중요한 역할을 하고 있다는 것을 본 연구를 통해서 밝히고자 한다. 본 연구에서는 한국영화산업의 발전과 구조변화에 대한 분석을 통하여 그 성공요인을 산업구조적 측면에서 제시하고 영화산업에 대한 정책적 시사점을 밝히는 것을 목적으로 한다. 본 연구에 있어 핵심적 키워드(Key Word) 중의 하나는 ‘수직적 결합’이다. 영화산업에 있어 수직적 결합은 영화의 제작·배급·상영에 이르는 단계의 결합을 의미한다. 통상 어떤 산업이 발전하는 과정에서 집적과 집중이 필연적으로 발생하는데 그 과정 및 형태는 산업마다 다르다. 영화산업에서는 수직적 결합이 자원의 집적과 집중이 이루어지는 과정에서 반드시 거쳐야 되는 단계라고 본 보고서는 주장한다. 영화산업의 역사를 돌이켜 보면, 미국을 포함하여 영화가 산업적 차원에서 성장한 대부분의 국가들에서는 수직적 결합을 통한 대형 영화사의 등장을 경험하였으며 이를 계기로 영화산업이 한 단계 높은 차원으로 발전되어 왔다는 것을 알 수 있다. 따라서 수직적 결합이 영화산업의 성숙과정에서 아주 중요한 단계라는 것은 분명해 보인다. 본 보고서는 영화산업의 구조변화를 수직적 결합의 심화라는 측면에서 고찰하며 수직적 결합이 한국영화산업의 성장에서 가지는 의미를 분석한다. 또한 현재 우리나라의 대표적인 영화산업정책인 스크린쿼터도 영화산업의 구조변화와 연관지어 그 유효성을 평가하고자 한다. 본 연구에서는 영화의 제작·배급·상영단계의 수직적 결합을 영화산업 성장의 핵심적 고리로 파악하고 있으며 영화산업의 특성 상 수직적 결합이 산업성장 과정에서 반드시 필요한 단계라는 것을 강조한다. 영화사는 수직적 결합을 통해서 영화의 공급과정에서 발생하는 비효율성을 제거하고 흥행위험을 회피할 수도 있으며, 높은 제작비가 투입된 영화를 지속적으로 제작할 수 있다. 따라서 외국의 경우 영화산업이 고도화되는 과정에서 수직계열화한 대형 영화사를 중심으로 산업이 재편되는 양상을 보여 왔다. 최근 한국영화산업 성장도 수직계열화한 대형 영화사를 중심으로 질 높은 영화가 지속적으로 공급될 수 있는 산업구조가 만들어진 것에 기인한다고 할 수 있다. 우리나라의 경우 과거 각종 국산영화 지원정책들이 없었던 것도 아니며 특히 박정희 정부에서는 대형 영화사 육성을 위해 제작사를 진입장벽으로 보호해 주었으며 외화수입권을 독점적으로 부여하는 등의 각종 특혜가 베풀어졌다. 하지만 외화수입권이라는 특혜가 질적 차별화에 기초하지 못하고 영화제작 실적 등의 양적 지표에 연계됨으로써 국산영화 제작은 외화수입권 확보를 위한 도구로 전락하는 부작용을 낳았다. ‘승자선택(Picking Winners)’을 통해 경쟁력 있는 소수에게 자원을 집중하고자 하는 정책의도에도 불구하고 차별화의 지표가 잘못 선정됨으로써 경쟁력 있는 승자의 선택이 이루어지지 못하였고 결국 질적으로 우수한 영화를 만든 제작사가 보상받는 질적 차별화가 이루어지지 않았던 것이다. 또한 박정희 시대의 영화산업정책이 성과를 가져오지 못했던 중요한 이유 중의 하나는 이들 정책들이 영화산업의 구조전환을 유발시키지 못했기 때문이다. 우리나라의 경우 제작자본의 영세성이 항상 지적되어 왔는데 이는 영화흥행수입이 제작부문으로 환류되어 제작자본이 축적·확대되는 과정이 반복되는 산업구조를 가질 때 해결될 수 있는 문제점이었다. 영화산업의 특성상 영화제작에 있어서의 독점적 위치는 영화자본 축적을 위한 핵심적 요소가 아니었으며 제작된 영화가 배급 및 상영의 과정을 거치는 동안 창출된 수익이 제작부문으로 재투입되는 확대재생산의 과정이 필요하였던 것이다. 수직계열화는 이와 같은 선순환 구조를 가능하게 해 주는 기업전략인데 영화제작업에 대한 진입장벽은 오히려 수직적 결합의 유발을 원천적으로 막아 영화산업의 발전을 저해하였다고 볼 수 있다. 우리나라에서 영화산업의 수직결합은 1980년대 후반부터 시작된 대기업 자본의 영화산업 진출에서 그 기원을 찾을 수 있다. 기존의 영세자본 위주의 영화산업에 This study shows the importance of vertical integration in the movie industry and asserts that the advent of vertically integrated movie companies has been the main critical factor behind the recent success of Korea’s movie industry. Vertical integration is a widely used corporate strategy not only in the movie industry often to reduce inefficiencies and transaction costs that arise during production and distribution. In the movie industry, vertical integration has also been an efficient strategy for mitigating various uncertainties in box-office profits. Many countries with a developed movie industry have experienced the emergence of vertically integrated movie companies as well as their dominance. In this study we find vertical integration to be an essential stage for advancement of a country’s movie business as it progresses towards a mature industry. The entry of large corporations into the movie business in the late 1980s, which had been made possible by the significant deregulation of the movie industry, allowed for more rigorous vertical integration in the Korean movie industry. New players in the movie business- particularly, large corporations-initiated structural change that include vertical integration in the industry. Nowadays, almost two-thirds of Korean movies are produced and/or distributed by the vertically integrated ‘major’ companies. The continuous supply of good quality movies has become possible through such vertically integrated companies as the capacity to reinvesting revenues from movie exhibition into movie production is consolidated. This is a critical difference between the current movie industry with that of 1970s and 1980s. In the 1970s Korea had very strong industrial policies that protected the movie industry. Such policies, however, failed to develop the movie industry because they were not properly designed to encourage vertical integration. On the contrary, the policies at the time overly-protected the production sector and consequently built various barriers between the stages of the movie supply chain. Moreover, the movie industry at the time was constrained by flaws in the industrial policy at the time. More specifically, industrial policy applied to the movie industry in the 1970s had fostered large-scale movie production companies. One of the key tools for this purpose was the exclusive import rights of foreign films for those movie companies that met a certain criteria. When a movie company produced a certain number of films, then it was provided an import quota for foreign films. Foreign films, especially Hollywood movies, were far more competitive than domestic films at the time, and as such, obtaining import rights was a very profitable business. The government in turn hoped to promote movie companies with capable of producing domestic films into large-scale ‘major’ companies using the benefit from sales of foreign movies. Concentrating resources on a small number of competitive companies-which we might call ‘picking the winners’-is a typical feature of Korea’s industrial policy in the early period of economic take-off. The exclusive import rights of foreign films had been used as a kind of prize for competition as well as to facilitate capital accumulation in the movie industry. However, this policy did not produce the desired outcome. The main reason for this was that competition per se was not based on ‘quality’, but rather on ‘quantity.’ The criteria for the exclusive import rights should have been linked to ‘the performance of companies in the market’ and not to ‘how many movies the company produced.’ In other words, the criteria ignored the market discrimination process and consequently failed to pick and encourage competitive winners. The structural changes in the Korean movie industry cast implications about the screen quota. The purpose of the screen quota is to give domestic films “proper” screening opportunities or exposure in the mark