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FTA 이행에 따른 낙농·유가공 산업의 경제적 영향 분석
전상곤,이균식,하수안 한국농촌경제연구원 2017 농촌경제 Vol.40 No.2
Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) are one of the important controversies in the Korean dairy and milk processing industry. This study estimates the economic impacts of tariff reductions in FTAs using a simulation equilibrium displacement model. For this, we incorporate various tariff schedules under different FTAs into one weighted tariff schedule for 14 different dairy products respectively. We perform a com-parative static analysis comparing the year of 2010 (pre-FTAs) and the following years until 2015. To do a research, we collect much information about market varia-bles, parameter values, and estimate demand-supply elasticities. Furthermore, we perform a sensitivity analysis. Based on the predetermined simulated tariff schedules under major FTAs, this study finds that the benefit of food processing industries in-cluding milk processing firms is almost 358~366 billion won per year or 5,369~5,489 billion won for 15 years. Also, the direct damage of domestic dairy farms is 4.2 billion won per year or 63.6 billion won for 15 years. The changes of milk selling income show that this damage has emerged since 2016.
Price Equivalent Impacts of the DDA in the Korean Raw-milk Market
전상곤 한국농촌경제연구원 2009 농촌경제 Vol.32 No.2
This study estimates the potential impacts of the Doha Development Agenda (DDA) on the Korean raw-milk market. The DDA has not reached an agreement yet. Although there are different attitudes about several issues such as Special Safeguard Mechanism (SSM), Sensitive Products (SP), and Tariff Rate Quota (TRQ) creation, WTO member countries have reached an agreement for major issues of the modalities in the DDA. Hence, this study estimates the impacts of the DDA that will finally reach an agreement sooner or later. For estimating the impacts of the DDA, this study makes a dairy trade model for the Korean dairy industry and measures the impacts of the DDA in terms of raw-milk price for fluid use incurred by further tariff cuts in the Korean dairy market by the DDA. This study considers several scenarios because the status of Korea is not settled yet and a country can select dairy products as sensitive products, special products, or general products and a country can select different options in each category. The results of this study can be used for preparing policies for subsidizing the domestic raw-milk producers to rebalance their loss in the raw-milk market incurred by the DDA.
전상곤,이정민,채상현,이형우 한국농촌경제연구원 2010 농촌경제 Vol.32 No.2
The purpose of this study is to evaluate the economic impacts of the Law of Cattle and Beef Traceability in marketing channels on the domestic Hanwoo beef industry. The Law of Cattle and Beef Traceability might affect the demand and supply of Hanwoo beef. After introducing the Law of Cattle and Beef Traceability into the marketing channels, the price of Hanwoo beef has increased a lot in the Korean beef market. Domestically produced Hanwoo beef has a price premium compared with the imported beef from foreign countries such as the U.S.A. or Australia. There had been an incentive for beef dealers in the domestic market to deceive the origin of the beef to capture the price premium. The Law of Cattle and Beef Traceability expanded into the marketing channel on June 22, 2009, which increased the demand for domestically produced Hanwoo beef. A simulation result shows that the increase of demand for Hanwoo beef would be 36.7 - 55.7 percent. The net impacts of the law are 38.7-57.8 percent increase in price and 16.4-21.7 percent increase in quantity.