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효율성인가, 형평성인가? 한국 인프라투자 지역 배분의 결정요인
이종연 ( Jongyearn Lee ) 한국경제학회 2022 The Korean Economic Review Vol.38 No.1
본 연구는 구조모형을 이용하여 2001~2014년의 기간 동안 한국의 지역별 교통인프라투자 배분 시 효율성과 형평성 중 어떤 측면이 강조되었는지를 살펴보고자 하였다. GMM(generalized method of moment) 추정법을 이용한 추정 결과, 한국의 공공투자는 효율성 증진보다 형평성 강화에 중점을 두고 이루어졌음을 발견하였다. 또한 실증분석 결과, 교통인프라의 자본스톡이 이론적 최적 수준을 상회하고 있으며, 중앙정부와 지방정부의 투자는 서로 대체관계에 있음을 확인하였다. 반면 지역의 인프라 수요 및 재정 상황은 투자 배분에 제한적인 영향을 미쳤음을 알 수 있었다. 마지막으로 인프라투자에 대한 정치적 영향은 당파성(partisanship) 보다는 선거생산성(electoral productivity)의 측면에서 발현됨을 확인하였다. We used a structural model to determine which aspects of efficiency and equity criteria were advocated in allocating investment in transportation infrastructure by region in the Republic of Korea during the period of 2001-2014. The estimation by the generalized method of moments indicated that the country’s regional allocation of public investment favored equity enhancement rather than efficiency gain. Empirical findings also include evidence of the substitutionary relationship between the investments by the central and regional governments, as well as the excess capital stock of transportation infrastructure compared with the optimum. The infrastructure needs and regional financial conditions had limited effects on the past allocation of investment. Political influence was exerted with respect to electoral productivity rather than partisanship.
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기술규제 개혁을 위한 의제설정 연구사업(2차년도) - 제2권: 기술규제 사전타당성 분석체계 구축방안 -
이광호(Kwang Ho Lee),김명순(Myungsoon Kim),목은지(Eunji Mok),박현준(Hyunjun Park),박정원(Jungwon Park),원소연(Soh-Yeon Won),이수일(Suil Lee),이종연(Jongyearn Lee) 과학기술정책연구원 2019 정책연구 Vol.- No.-
The pre-feasibility analysis is carried out in accordance with ‘Framework Act on Administrative Regulations’. However, it has following limitations. First, the scope of targets analysed is limited to regulations newly adopted or reinforced except for that are mitigated or abolished which highly required recently. Second, there is a limit to realise the industry as a whole by current cost-benefit analysis directly conducted by a relevant company. Third, it is difficult to grasp the overall reality of regulatory impacts with current analysis unit based on articles. Fourth, it does not reflect enough on the distinct characteristics of technological regulations with complex options to tackle. This study analysed the cost-benefit analysis with the cases of not only newly adopted and reinforced but also mitigated in order to overcome those limitations. In addition, the study tried to find concrete and practical policy alternatives by setting various assumptions to reflect market impacts by regulatory changes. There were two cases: Direct-To-Consumer Genetic testing as a deregulation case, and labelling nanomaterials for cosmetics as a reinforced regulation. The research designed cost-benefit analysis model for each case and the WTP(willingness to pay) was derived through surveys, followed by quantitative and qualitative analysis. As a result of case study, a plenty of assumptions are needed in quantitative analysis and the results are showed great changes when market sensitivity changed. Moreover, it found that it is necessary to link with qualitative analysis to supplement quantitative analysis which is highly variable. There are five policy suggestions given the following: First, it is necessary to establish a department of technological regulation in the regulatory reform committee and to strengthen its deliberation functions. In the case with hugh impact, however, should designate pre-feasibility analysis before the preliminary announcement on legislation. Second, it should improve reliability of ripple effects predictions by economic analysis based on multi-dimensional and multi-standard perspectives. It should present comparative alternatives in considering stakeholders who influenced by regulations as broadly as possible. Third, the checklist showed in the study should be used as conducting the pre-feasibility analysis practically. The checklist can be applicable in conjunction with ex post impact assessment. Fourth, it is required to improve administrative efficiency by differentiating analysis levels and upgrading regulatory infrastructure. Building a professional database and a platform that shares analysis results and methods could increase reliability. Fifth, it should be linked with the introduction of ex post impact assessment system. It requires that relevant articles should be added to the ‘Framework Act on Administrative Regulations’. Also an independent organisation from the department should carry out the ex post impact assessment in order to avoid political controversy.
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비용편익분석을 위한 조건부가치측정법에서의 총편익 산정: 소득효과 및 거리-소멸 효과를 중심으로
이종연,Lee, Jongyearn 한국개발연구원 2014 韓國 開發 硏究 Vol.36 No.1
본고는 조건부가치측정법을 비용편익분석에 이용하기 위하여 공공시설의 신설에 따른 총편익의 산정을 보다 엄밀히 수행하는 방법을 제시한다. 즉, 설문을 통해 가구당 지불의사액을 추정하는 경우, 응답자의 소득 및 응답자의 거주지와 해당 공공시설 사업지 간의 거리가 지불의사액에 영향을 미치는지를 확인하고자 한다. 구조적 효용격차모형을 이용한 사례분석 결과 지불의사액에 대한 소득효과 및 거리-소멸 효과가 존재함을 확인하였으며, 총편익의 산정 시 이들을 고려하지 않는 경우 산정된 총편익의 값이 크게 달라질 수 있음을 보였다. 이에 본고는 조건부가치측정법을 비용편익분석에 이용하는 경우 총편익의 산정에 있어 주의를 기울여야 함을 강조한다. 비용편익분석에 있어 총비용의 추정이 정확히 이루어진다 하더라도 가구당 지불의사액의 추정 및 이들을 합산하여 총편익을 산정하는 방식이 옳지 못할 경우 편익/비용(B/C) 비율이 크게 달라질 수 있기 때문이다. 한편, 효용격차 구조모형을 따르지 않고 임의적으로 유사한 추정을 수행한 결과는 구조모형의 추정치와 매우 큰 차이를 보임을 알 수 있었다. 따라서 총편익의 산정은 구조모형의 설정을 따르는 것이 바람직할 것이다. 마지막으로 시뮬레이션을 통해 모형의 적합성을 검증하였으며, 소득효과와 거리-소멸 효과를 고려하지 않는 경우 지역균형발전의 관점에서 바람직하지 못한 총편익의 추정 결과를 얻음을 밝혔다. This study suggests a model for calculating total benefit rigorously to use the contingent valuation method (CVM) in cost-benefit analysis (CBA). Estimating households' willingness to pay through survey method, the study attempts to demonstrate if a respondent's income and the distance between a respondent's residence and the location of a target facility affect her willingness to pay. The estimation results from a structural model show that income and distance-decay effects exist and that the calculated total benefit varies largely when these effects are ignored. The study emphasizes the effects of income and distance-decay on the total benefit must be carefully considered in using CVM for CBA. Even though the total project cost is precisely estimated, the benefit/cost (B/C) ratio may differ largely when the total benefit is not correctly calculated. Also, an ad hoc model generates significantly different estimates from the utility difference model this study adopted. The difference in estimates suggests that the total benefit has to be estimated by a structural model. Finally, simulations are performed to check the validity of the model as well as to predict consequences when income and distance-decay effects are not properly treated. The results from simulations reveal it is not desirable to ignore those effects considering the perspectives of balanced regional development.
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