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문정인 한국전략문제연구소 1998 전략연구 Vol.5 No.1
Since late 1980s, the international system has undergone a profound transformation. The dissolution of the Soviet Union not only brought about major political realignments in Europe including the German unification, but also precipitated the end of the Cold War bipolarity. The demise of the Cold War was followed by an elated anticipation on peaceful resolution of the Korean conflict and national reunification among Koreans precisely because the Korean division and conflict were a product of the Cold War hegemonic rivalry between the United States and the Soviet Union. But such anticipation has been soon shattered, and military confrontation on the Korean peninsula remains as tense as before. Despite its Cold War origin, the Korean conflict has evolved into its own peculiar dynamics. If the international system is less effectual in shaping the nature of peace and stability on the Korean peninsula, what else would serve as critical variables? This article argues that the most critical variable in predicting the dynamics of the Korean politics is domestic politics in both Koreas and impacts on inter-Korean relations. Especially, changes in North Korean domestic politics are likely to serve as the most important factor in affecting the future course of peace and stability on the Korean peninsula. Against this backdrop, the article delineates four scenarios of political changes in the North and traces how each scenario would influence peace and stability on the Korean peninsula. The first scenario involves a sequence of a sudden collapse of North Korea and unification by absorption in South Korean terms. The 'big bang' scenario can entail short-term trauma and instability, but can ensure long-term stability and peace by consolidating the process of unification. One caveat is in order, however, Reunification and the rise of unified Korea as a middle power can cause counter-balances by regional powers, undermining long-term stability. The second one is a 'scapegoat' scenario. Increasing internal insecurity, coupled with factional struggle among ruling elite, especially the military, the Kim Jong Il regime can undertake military provocation on the South. In this case, short-term instability associated with military conflict will arise, but in the long run, South Korea, in cooperation with its allies, will be able to topple the North Korean regime and to foster the process of unification as well as to ensure peace and stability in Korea. This scenario is also predicated on enormous short-term instability and trauma. The third scenario involves stability through international trusteeship of North Korea. The scenario assumes a sequence of division within the ruling circle, proliferation of civil unrest, and the deepening of protracted civil war in the North. Under this circumstance, as in the case of Lebanon or Yugoslavia, warring Korth Korean factions could ask intervention of the United Nations or major powers such as the United States and/or China in the form of international peacekeeping forces. In this case, instability can be confined to North Korea, but prolonged international trusteeship could block chances for Korean unification. The last one is an 'incremental' scenario. The scenario assumes soft-landing of North Korea through open door and reforms, improved inter- Korean relations, and the consolidation of peaceful co-existence on the Korean peninsula. It favors status quo over any drastic changes in inter-Korean relations. It is also assumed that Korean unification would come through negotiations and consensus rather than Korean unification would corne through negotiations and consensus rather than through big bang or military conflicts. In sum, the article draws a conclusion that the most feasible and desirable scenario for stability and peace on the Korean peninsula is the incremental change in North Korea. Sudden political changes in the North can cause acute short-term instabilities on the Korean peninsula. It is, thus, strongly urged for both South Korea and regional powers to undertake measures that can not only foster gradual political and economic changes in the North, but also break the protracted statemate between two Koreas.
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[2018년 남북관계, 전망과 과제] “한·미는 북한과 소통채널을 열고 특사 보내야”
문정인 르몽드코리아 2018 르몽드 디플로마티크 Vol.- No.112
촛불민심이 일궈낸 한국정치의 기적. 그것은 바로 문재인 정부의 출범이었다. 적폐청산과 새로운 대한민국의 미래건설이 새 정부의 역사적 소명이 돼야 하는 이유다. 그 중에서도, 수구정권 9년 간 망가진 남북관계를 복원하고 평화와 번영의 한반도를 만들라는 국민의 명령은 최우선적 과제라 하지 않을 수 없다. 이 같은 민심을 반영해, 문재인 대통령도 남북관계 복원을 통해 한미·북미·한중·북중 관계의 선순환 구조를 이뤄내고, 평화와 번영의 한반도 경제공동체를 구축하겠다는 의지를 누차 표명한 바 있다. 이런 의지 표명은 지난 7월 6일, 문 대통령의 베를린 구상에서 명시적으로 나타난 바 있다. “북한에 대한 적대적 의도가 없으며, 북의 체제변화나 흡수통일을 추구하지 않을 뿐 아니라 북한과의 관계개선을 희망한다”는 발언이 이를 압축해 준다. 이 연장 선상에서 문재인 정부는 지난 7월 하순, 이산가족 재상봉을 포함한 인도적 현안을 다루기 위한 적십자회담과 군사분계선에서의 우발적 충돌을 방지하기 위한 군사회담을 제의했다. 그리고 이후에도 북한에 대한 화해와 협력의 메시지를 지속해서 던져 왔던 것이다.
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Reactive Nationalism and South Korea’s Foreign Policy on China and Japan: A Comparative Analysis
문정인,Chun-fu Li 인하대학교 국제관계연구소 2010 Pacific Focus Vol.25 No.3
The advent of post-Cold War order, growing economic interdependence, and dense social and cultural networks have greatly facilitated South Korea’s bilateral ties with China and Japan since early 1990s. But disputes over past history and territory have recently strained such ties. Whereas Japan’s renewed territorial claim over Dokdo island, its distortion of history textbooks, and Koizumi’s tribute to the Yasukuni Shrine dealt a critical blow to Seoul-Tokyo relations, the China’s Northeast Project (Dongbei Gongcheng) that claims Korea’s ancient kingdom of Goguryo to be its peripheral local government provoked widespread anti-Chinese sentiments in South Korea. Nevertheless, South Korea’s nationalist responses were not uniform. Seoul responded to Tokyo in a much tougher manner with profound diplomatic implications, whereas public outcry over China was not escalate into any specific retaliatory actions. The article argues that such variation can be explained by the dynamic interplay of issue-character, domestic political terrain involving public opinion and leadership perception, and feedback from political leadership in China and Japan.
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전기방사를 이용한 polyamine 6 nanofiber 혈액투석용 분리막의 제조와 크레아티닌의 제거
문정인,고은주,이용택 한국막학회 2016 한국막학회 총회 및 학술발표회 Vol.2016 No.05
생체적합성과 흡습 특성이 있는 polyamide6 (PA6)를 혈액투석용 분리막으로 사용하기 위해 16 wt% PA6 고분자 용액을 전기방사하여 제조하였다. 제조된 PA6 nanofiber membrane은 직경(fiber diameter), 표면특성, 기공의 크기 분석을 통해 혈액투석용 분리막으로 최적화하였다. PA6 nanofiber membrane는 제 올라이트가 첨가된 친수성 고분자 용액으로 개질하여 혈액 속 노폐물인 creatinine 흡착 제거용 분리막으로 사용하고, creatine의 흡착효과는 UV-visible 분석으로 확인하였다.
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