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양희중 청주대학교 산업과학연구소 2022 産業科學硏究 Vol.40 No.1
We develop a model that includes not only machine reliability but human reliability as well as an explicit factor, so that the interaction with machine reliability in an incident initiation and escalation to more severe incident can be clearly explained. If historical data is available, the model utilizes information contained in data to perform a real time updating of human and machine reliability, and to analyze the role of operators and machines in the overall safety system. The model allows the careful examination of historical data about what causes are critical for incident initiation and how each incident escalates to a more severe incident, so it becomes possible for us to get additional information besides the count of incidents itself. The information provides us with a more detailed idea of human and machine reliability and thereby allows us to make better prediction.
양희중 대한안전경영과학회 2015 대한안전경영과학회지 Vol.17 No.1
We develop a model to predict typhoons in Korea. We collect data for typhoons and classify those depending on the severity level. Following a Bayesian approach, we develop a model that explains the relationship between different levels of typhoons. Through the analysis of the model, we can predict the rate of typhoons, the probability of approaching Korean peninsular, and the probability of striking Korean peninsular. We show that the uncertainty for the occurrence of various types of typhoons reduces dramatically by adaptively updating model parameters as we acquire data.
양희중 청주대학교 2004 産業科學硏究 Vol.22 No.1
We study the limitations of an event tree which is frequently used to denote the event initiation and escalation to more severe events. As a substitution, an influence diagram is introduced. It is statistically equivalent and contains whole information contained in an event tree. An event tree model is transformed into an influence diagram model. We update model parameters adaptively in an influence diagram as we obtain data.
축산물 품질 평가원 등급업무의 엄격도 분석에 관한 연구
양희중 청주대학교 2016 産業科學硏究 Vol.33 No.2
The evaluation of quality of animals such as cows and pigs are made by evaluators at Korea Institute for animal product quality evaluation (KAPE). A scientific criterion determining the fairness of evaluators has been made. This paper is an extension to find out a methodology to evaluate the severity of evaluators. Evaluator can get feedback about their relative severity on their evaluations.
양희중 청주대학교 2011 産業科學硏究 Vol.29 No.1
We use influence diagrams to describe event trees used in safety analyses of low-probability high-risk incidents. This paper shows how the branch parameters used in the event tree models can be updated by a bayesian method based on the observed counts of certain well-defined subsets of accident sequences. We focus on the analysis of the shared branch parameters, which may frequently often in the real accident initiation and propagation to more severe accident. We also suggest the way to utilize different levels of accident data to forecast low-probability high-risk accidents.
양희중 청주대학교 2007 産業科學硏究 Vol.25 No.1
When we describe accidents initiation and escalation to more severe accidents, we often use event trees. Such trees can be transformed into influence diagrams which are statistically equivalent. Even though we frequently uses Random Escalation Model (REM) in the safety analyses, sometime Random Alleviation Model (RAM) better expresses the real world situation. Therefore we need to analyze the relationship between REM and RAM thereby we can choose a correct model.