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권동일,고응린,최광림 한양대학교 의과대학 1982 한양의대 학술지 Vol.2 No.1
In recent years, a growing number of methods and systems for automated diagnosis by means of statistical principles assisted by computer have been reported. The application of stochastic decision theory to the medical diagnostics might have been for eseen much earlier sined such possibility could be easily read in bayesian conditional probability concept developed in as early as 1763. The basic logic generally adopted to edscribing the diagnostics is of a deductive type, that is, the title of disease is given first and then the description on symptoms and signs generated by the disease follows. In medical practice, however, the logic is reversed, that is, given first are the symptoms or signs this time and search for the title of the disease come next. The latter logic, usually called as an inductive type, is the very concept which allows the application of mathematical disciplines such as probability theory and symbolic logic which are well accepted as the reasoning foundations of decision making process in medical diagnosis. From this point of view, we made an experiment on differential diagnosis in which the so called "Likelihood Method" is employed for discriminating the patients. The diseases selected for this study are; (1) peptic Ulcer Perforation (2) Appendix Perforation (3) Acute Pancreatitis and (4) Gall stone. The symptom varables used for the differential diagnosis are; (1) Age (2) Sex (3) Gastric distress (4) Nausea and vomiting (5) Location of sudden pain (6) Body temperature (7) Pulse rate (8) Location of maximum tenderness (9) Muscle guardness (10) Bowel sound (11) W.B.C. (12) Hematocrit (13) Urine specific gravity (14) Urine sugar (15) Urine protein (16) Urine R.B.C (17) Urine W.B.C. (18) Free air in abdominal X-ray. In order to apply the likelihood method to discriminate the patients, a "Discriminant Score Chart" was constructed on the basis of distribution of symptom variables obtained from the medical records of a total of 385 patients (peptic ulcer perforation: 99 cases, appendix perforation: 94 cases, acute pancreatitis: 93 cases, gallstone: 99 cases). The chart is presented in Table 19 in the main test. The scores recorded in the chart are the transformed values according to the following formula. score=?? where ??: the proportion of patients with jth disease. When a series of clinical symptoms of signs are given the total score for each disease group is calculated by adding up the scores for 18 symptom variables and the disease group which totaled maximum score was selected as a diagnosed disease. A summary of the result of differential diagnosis made by the "Likelihood Method" is given as follows. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Diagnosed by "Likelihood Method" ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Conformed Total D₁ D₂ D₃ D₄ diagnosis cases ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- No. % No. % No. % No. % ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- D₁ 99 88 88.9 11 11.1 - - - - D₂ 94 8 8.5 85 90.4 1 1.1 - - D₃ 93 1 1.0 2 2.1 81 87.1 9 9.7 D₄ 99 2 2.0 5 5.0 6 6.1 86 86.9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total 385 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- It follows that a total of 88 cases were correctly diagnosed by such method among 99 patients of peptic ulcer perforation (D₁), 90.4% in 94 patients of appendix perforation (D₂), 87.1% in 93 of acute pancreatitis (D₃) and 86.9% in 99 of gallstone patients (D₄). From these relatively high rates of correct diagnosis we are convinced of the usefulness of the "Discriminant Score Chart" developed by the principle of likelihood method for differential diagnosis, particularly since it can be used by any one with a simple calculation.
최광림,Choe, Gwang-Rim 환경보전협회 2014 환경정보 Vol.413 No.-
배출권거래제가 내년 1월부터 시행될 예정이다. 이에 기업들은 실제 온실가스 배출증가 추세와 신 증설 시설 투자계획 등을 고려한 현실적인 할당이 이루어지길 원하며 정부는 국가 감축목표 달성이 가능하도록 할당량을 결정하고자 한다. 온실가스 감축목표는 다양한 정책의 종합결과물로서 에너지정책, 산업발전정책, 온실가스 감촉기술발전 추이 등이 종합적으로 고려되어야 한다. 배출권거래제의 안정적 운영과 지속적인 경제성장을 담보하기 위해서라도 환경보전과 산업경쟁력을 동시에 고려하는 합리적 대안이 마련되기를 희망해 본다.