A Breast Cancer Nomogram for Prediction of Non-Sentinel Node Metastasis - Validation of Fourteen Existing Models

Koca, Bulent,Kuru, Bekir,Ozen, Necati,Yoruker, Savas,Bek, Yuksel Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention 2014 Asian Pacific journal of cancer prevention Vol.15 No.3

Background: To avoid performing axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) for non-sentinel lymph node (SLN)-negative patients with-SLN positive axilla, nomograms for predicting the status have been developed in many centers. We created a new nomogram predicting non-SLN metastasis in SLN-positive patients with invasive breast cancer and evaluated 14 existing breast cancer models in our patient group. Materials and Methods: Two hundred and thirty seven invasive breast cancer patients with SLN metastases who underwent ALND were included in the study. Based on independent predictive factors for non-SLN metastasis identified by logistic regression analysis, we developed a new nomogram. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves for the models were created and the areas under the curves (AUC) were computed. Results: In a multivariate analysis, tumor size, presence of lymphovascular invasion, extranodal extension of SLN, large size of metastatic SLN, the number of negative SLNs, and multifocality were found to be independent predictive factors for non-SLN metastasis. The AUC was found to be 0.87, and calibration was good for the present Ondokuz Mayis nomogram. Among the 14 validated models, the MSKCC, Stanford, Turkish, MD Anderson, MOU (Masaryk), Ljubljana, and DEU models yielded excellent AUC values of > 0.80. Conclusions: We present a new model to predict the likelihood of non-SLN metastasis. Each clinic should determine and use the most suitable nomogram or should create their own nomograms for the prediction of non- SLN metastasis.

Regional climate simulations and future projections by COSMO-CLM in Istanbul

Cemre Yoruk Sonuc,Yurdanur Unal,Selahattin Incecik 한국대기환경학회 2021 한국대기환경학회 학술대회논문집 Vol.2021 No.10

Climate change can affect human health by making our air less healthy to breathe. Atmospheric warming associated with climate change has the potential to increase surface ozone levels, particularly in mid-latitude regions of the world. Rising ozone levels cause serious health problems, especially in summer, and may pose difficulties in complying with ozone air quality standards in the future. The study aims to investigate the ability of the COSMO-CLM model to reproduce the climate characteristics over Turkey and northwest of the country and emphasizing Istanbul to evaluate the projections of the regional climate model by determining the future changes in the temperature and precipitation variables. This study examines the present (1991-2005) and high-resolution climate projections for (2041-60) and (2071-90) over Istanbul and its surrounding areas at a spatial resolution of 0.0275o (2.8 km), employing the IPCC RCP 8.5 emission scenario by the COSMO-CLM_5.0 regional climate model forced by the earth system model MPI-ESM-LR. The performance of the model was validated by comparing simulation results to the observations. Climate projections show significant warming expected over the whole area in the period of 2041-2060 and especially in 2071-2090. Warming over Istanbul is around 1.25°C in the first period but, significantly higher in the case of the second period, which reaches up to 3.0°C. With the effect of Marmara at the south and the Black Sea on the north, warming increases in the coastline are higher than in the inner parts of the city. Moreover, in the spring and summer seasons, the north of Istanbul warms up more slowly than the south, the difference in the rate of temperature increase is expected to be more pronounced in the summer season. An increase in summer temperatures is expected especially in the southern coastal parts of the city. This will lead to an increase in ozone levels with the effect of land-sea breeze circulations. A significant reduction in precipitation is particularly evident at the end of the century over Istanbul. It is expected that the greatest decrease will occur in the spring season in both periods. The decrease in precipitation will lead to an increase in particulate pollution caused by Saharan dust transport, which affects Istanbul, especially in the spring season.

Why do we need a theory and metrics of technology upgrading?

Slavo Radosevic,Esin Yoruk 기술경영경제학회 2016 ASIAN JOURNAL OF TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION Vol.24 No.-

This paper discusses why we need a theory and metrics of technology upgrading. It criticallyreviews existing approaches to technology upgrading, and proposes a theoretically relevant andempirically grounded intermediate conceptual and statistical framework to illustrate the typesof challenges facing economies with different levels of income. It conceptualises technologyupgrading as a three-dimensional process that considers the intensity and type of technologyupgrading based on different types of innovation and technology activities; the broadeningof technology upgrading through exploitation of technology and knowledge diversification;and interaction with the global economy via the import, adoption, and exchange ofknowledge. We consider these to be necessary first steps towards a theory and metrics oftechnology upgrading and the generation of more relevant composite indicator oftechnology upgrading.

Nutrition Practice to Alleviate the Adverse Effects of Stress on Laying Performance, Metabolic Profile and Egg Quality in Peak Producing Hens: II. The Probiotic Supplementation

Hayirli, Armagan,Esenbuga, N.,Macit, M.,Yoruk, M.A.,Yildiz, A.,Karaca, H. Asian Australasian Association of Animal Productio 2005 Animal Bioscience Vol.18 No.12

In this experiment, the effects of cage density (CD) and probiotic supplementation (PS) on laying performance, metabolic profile, and egg quality in peak-producing hens were evaluated. After blocking according to the cage location, Lohman layers (n = 180, 46 wks of age) were allocated randomly to two levels of CD (540 vs. 360 $cm^2$/hen) and three levels of PS (0, 0.15, and 0.30%). Probiotic contained Enterococcus faecium culture (10${\times}$10$^9$ cfu/g). Egg production (EP) and feed consumption (FC) were measured daily; egg weight (EW) was measured bi-weekly; BW was measured before and after the experiment; and blood samples were obtained at the end of the experiment. The data were analyzed using two-way ANOVA. Increasing CD decreased FC (125.0 vs. 120.8 g/d, p<0.0001) and FCR (1.93 vs. 1.87, p<0.0001) and did not alter EP, EW, and BW. Increasing level of PS linearly decreased FC (p<0.02) and FCR (p<0.006). Averages were 123.9, 123.2, and 121.6 g/d for FC and 1.91, 1.92, and 1.86 for FCR in hens supplemented with 0, 0.15, and 0.30% probiotic, respectively. Hens placed in high-density cages had greater serum corticosterone concentration than hens placed in normal-density cages (12.8 vs. 11.3 $\mu$g/dL, p<0.04); CD did not affect concentrations of other metabolites. Increasing level of PS linearly increased serum glucose, albumin, and creatine concentrations and quadratically increased total protein, globulin, Ca, and P concentrations. Average concentrations (mg/dL) were 260, 297, and 305 for glucose; 6.28, 8.09, and 7.58 for total protein; 1.98, 2.48, and 2.38 for albumin; 4.30, 5.62, and 5.19 for globulin; 0.40, 0.52, and 0.54 for creatine; 16.0, 16.5, and 16.3 for Ca; and 6.27, 8.14, and 7.17 for P in hens supplemented with 0, 0.15, and 0.30% probiotic, respectively. There was no effect of CD on egg quality. Increasing level of PS linearly improved yolk color (YC) and quadratically increased albumen index (AI) and Haugh unit (HU). The mean values were 9.67, 9.75, and 10.58 for YC; 8.94, 6.93, and 8.72% for AI; and 85.6, 74.9, and 82.9 for HU for hens supplemented with 0, 0.15, and 0.30% probiotic, respectively. There was also CD by PS effect on FC, EP, and serum glucose, total protein, albumin, globulin, creatine, Ca and P concentrations. In conclusion, increased CD partially depressed laying performance and caused stress. Probiotic supplementation improved laying performance and metabolic profile. It also partially alleviated the adverse effects of stress resulting from increased caging density.

The Effects of Vitamin D Supplementation to Peak-producing Hens Fed Diets Differing in Fat Source and Level on Laying Performance, Metabolic Profile, and Egg Quality

Turgut, L.,Hayirl, Armagan,Celebi, S.,Yoruk, M.A.,Gul, M.,Karaoglu, M.,Macit, M. Asian Australasian Association of Animal Productio 2006 Animal Bioscience Vol.19 No.8

This experiment was designed to examine the effects of supplemental vitamin D on laying performance, metabolic profile and egg quality of hens fed diets containing different fat sources and levels. Lohman strains (n = 480) were assigned to one of 10 diets: basal diet (BD), BD plus 2.5 and 5.0% sunflower oil (SO) or tallow (T) at vitamin D provided $1{\times}$ and $3{\times}$ of the current recommendation. The experiment lasted from week 30 to 44 of age. Each diet was tested in 12 replicate cages of 4 hens. Production, metabolism, and egg quality data were subjected to three-way ANOVA. Both fats decreased feed intake (FI) as compared to BD. Increasing SO and T levels linearly decreased and quadratically increased FI, respectively. The dietary factors did not affect egg production (EP) and egg weight. Vitamin D supplementation increased and decreased EP when diets contained SO and T, respectively. Feed conversion efficiency (FCE) for hens fed SO was lower than for hens fed T. However, increasing T level improved FCE, whereas increasing SO level worsened FCR. Vitamin D supplementation increased serum vitamin D and glucose concentrations. Vitamin D supplementation also caused a decrease and an increase in serum vitamin D concentration when diets contained SO and T, respectively. Serum glucose concentration for hens fed SO was lower than hens fed T. Increasing fat level linearly increased serum triglyceride and VLDL concentrations, regardless of the fat type. Increasing SO level linearly decreased serum cholesterol concentration. Vitamin D supplementation did not alter lipid metabolites. The dietary factors did not affect serum total protein, Ca, and P concentrations. As compared with BD, feeding SO decreased dry tibia and ash weights more than feeding T. Vitamin D supplementation tended to increase dry tibia weight and decrease tibia ash weight. Eggshell strength and thickness, yolk and albumen indexes, and Haugh unit were not responsive to the dietary factors. Eggshell strength quadratically increased with increasing T level. Yolk color for hens fed SO was lower than for hens fed T. The dietary factors did not affect most of yolk fatty acids. Increasing SO level quadratically decreased yolk $C_{18:2}$ concentration. Vitamin D supplementation increased and decreased yolk $C_{18:2}$ concentration when diets contained SO and T, respectively. In conclusion, increasing fat level improved laying performance without altering metabolic profile and egg quality. Vitamin D supplementation had minor alteration effects on laying performance, metabolic profile, and egg quality in response to fat feeding.