WHO BENEFITS FROM IMPORT SUBSTITUTION INDUSTRIALIZATION (ISI) OF THE PHILIPPINE MILKFISH HATCHERY-BRED FRY INDUSTRY?

Yolanda T. Garcia,Maria Esperanza T. Garcia,Arnulfo G. Garcia 한국무역학회 2019 한국무역학회 국제학술대회 Vol.2019 No.08

This study aims to estimate the welfare gains of the Philippine milkfish industry in establishing local fry hatcheries to reduce imports from Indonesia and Taiwan. It also seeks to establish the industry stakeholders who gain from this import substitution industrialization (ISI). The economic surplus model was used to estimate the welfare gains from ISI of hatchery-bred milkfish fry in the fishery sector. Specifically, the changes in consumer and/or producer surplus per stakeholder were compared to determine who the biggest gainers are. Results of the study showed that the consumer surplus from the milkfish fry industry was larger than its producer surplus. On the other hand, the reverse was true for the grow-out industry. It is interesting to note that the consumers in the fry industry and the producer in the grow-out industry were the same set of stakeholders, i.e., the milkfish grow-out operators, who gained the most from the ISI of the hatchery-bred fry. The study also showed that the commercialization of the local milkfish hatchery technologies can bring about more benefits to the country than importing frys and fingerlings. Hence, ISI of local hatcheries for other aquaculture species can be expected to bring similar welfare gains. More importantly, the technical and financial assistance that were extended by the government’s fishery sector through the GAINEX project as pioneered by DOST-PCAARRD can serve as an effective catalysts to prospective hatchery operators in reducing the risks, especially when setting-up a new enterprise like the hatchery-bred fry for an emerging aquaculture species in the country.

Market Efficiency and Volatility Spillover in Bitcoin and Ethereum Prices: Comparisons during the Pre-COVID-19 Period and COVID-19 Pandemic

Yolanda T. Garcia,Joshua V. Tolentino 한국무역연구원 2021 The International Academy of Global Business and T Vol.17 No.2

Purpose – This study attempts to establish if the markets for the two most popular cryptocurrencies in the world, Bitcoin and Ethereum, follow weak-form market efficiency across various landmarks in time. Design/Methodology/Approach – Traditional testing for establishing weak-form market efficiency rests on whether the price series exhibits a random walk process, which implies that future prices cannot be predicted. However, not all random walk series automatically imply weak-form market efficiency, since some asset price behaviors may exhibit non-constant variance. In such cases, the GARCH model can be used to test for the presence of market efficiency. Since structural breaks in the prices of both cryptocurrencies are common, tests for market efficiency were carried out using sub-temporal price windows. In both price series, the last time window coincided with the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic period. Findings – Results of the GARCH analyses showed that the volatility and persistence parameters (α and β, respectively) in the Bitcoin and Ethereum models were all statistically significant, implying that prices in their sub-temporal markets were generally weak-form inefficient. The observed market inefficiency in both cryptocurrencies can be attributed to various factors like the price manipulation of crypto whales, security issues, and increased media attention, which led to inflows of information that helped big investors beat and gain from the market by successfully predicting the trend in future prices. During the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic period, both cryptocurrencies’ prices were observed to rise significantly, similar to the case of the 2017 Bitcoin price bubble. A cointegrating regression between Bitcoin and Ethereum prices during this period, however, showed a spurious relationship. Despite the absence of a long run relationship between these two price series, the current price bubbles in the cryptocurrency markets are speculated to be tied together. Research Implications – Players in the cryptocurrency market must always be cautious in making investment decisions regarding this type of asset since the markets are generally price inefficient and risky; any idiosyncratic decision that may be triggered by a price bubble burst in one cryptocurrency market may or may not serve as a signal that the other market will do the same. Since the Bitcoin and Ethereum prices were shown to exhibit volatility spillover and persistence, investors can use this information to make informed decisions as to whether to invest in these cryptocurrencies despite the huge risks that are magnified during the COVID-19 pandemic.

TRENDS AND PROSPECTS OF RICE PRODUCTION AND TRADE IN MYANMAR

Arnulfo G. Garcia,Yolanda T. Garcia,Han Nwe Soe 한국무역학회 2019 한국무역학회 국제학술대회 Vol.2019 No.08

Effects of ASEAN Trade Liberalization on the Philippine Manufacturing Sector: A Gravity Model Approach

John Christian P,Ocba,Yolanda T,Garcia,Emmanuel Genesis T,Andal 한국APEC학회 2017 Journal of APEC Studies Vol.9 No.2

ASEAN Trade liberalization promotes intra-regional trade through gradual elimination of tariff across various manufactured products as well as reduction of non-tariff barriers to facilitate the flow of tradable goods within the region. Covering the period of 1993 to 2014, this study analyzed the effects of both tariff and non-tariff barriers on the level of trade in the Philippine manufacturing sector and its components with other ASEAN member nations. Using an augmented gravity model, the results showed that GDP and population of the Philippines and its ASEAN trading partners exhibited significant effects on the country’s imports and exports of manufactured goods, respectively. Moreover, the results showed that both tariff and non-tariff barriers have negative effects on the trade of these goods in general and were found to be significant in many manufacturing sub-sectors. On the whole, the study showed that the ASEAN trade liberalization through tariff reduction have some but not wide ranging effect on the level of trade in the Philippine manufacturing sub-sectors as expected. This result can be attributed to the increasing incidence of non-tariff barriers (NTBs), which proved to dampen the free flow of trade in the ASEAN community.

PHILIPPINE EXPORT EFFICIENCY AND POTENTIAL IN ASEAN TRADE

Richelle Jane Dela Rosa Robles,Yolanda T. Garcia,Zenaida M. Sumalde 한국무역학회 2019 한국무역학회 국제학술대회 Vol.2019 No.08

The Philippines is considered as one of the world’s oldest open economies because of its active trading participation in the world market. This study was conducted to estimate the trade efficiency and potential level of Philippine exports to ASEAN countries in both agriculture and manufacturing sectors. It also explored the effect of “Behind-the-border” and “Beyond-the-border” factors on the said export efficiency and potential. The Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model was employed to measure the export efficiency and potential of the Philippine trade at the frontier. Results of the study show that on the average, Philippine manufacturing goods were more efficiently exported to ASEAN neighbors. Manufacturing export efficiency level of the Philippines totaled to 51% compared with 50% efficiency level for the agriculture sector. Higher export potential was also observed in the manufacturing sector. Further analyses show that the export efficiencies and potentials in the agricultural and manufacturing sectors were influenced more by factors that were beyond the Philippines’ control. Specifically, the export efficiency of the agricultural sector was significantly affected by “beyond-the-border” institution while the manufacturing sector was influenced by institution and exchange rate. Moreover, the export potentials of the agricultural sector were positively contributed by exchange rate and institution while manufacturing by infrastructure. On the other hand, “behind-the-border” infrastructure was the only factor that affects the export potential of both sectors. Based on the results, policy implications on how to improve the Philippine export efficiencies and potentials for the agricultural and manufacturing sectors were forwarded.