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Evaluation of Regional Climate Simulations over the CORDEX-EA-II Domain Using the COSMO-CLM Model
Weidan Zhou,Jianping Tang,Xueyuan Wang,Shuyu Wang,Xiaorui Niu,Yuan Wang 한국기상학회 2016 Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences Vol.52 No.2
The COSMO-CLM (CCLM) model is applied to perform regional climate simulation over the second phase of CORDEX-East Asia (CORDEX-EA-II) domain in this study. Driven by the ERAInterim reanalysis data, the model was integrated from 1988 to 2010 with a high resolution of 0.22o. The model’s ability to reproduce mean climatology and climatic extremes is evaluated based on various aspects. The CCLM model is capable of capturing the basic features of the East Asia climate, including the seasonal mean patterns, interannual variations, annual cycles and climate extreme indices for both surface air temperature and precipitation. Some biases are evident in certain areas and seasons. Warm and wet biases appear in the arid and semi-arid areas over the northwestern and northern parts of the domain. The simulated climate over the Tibetan Plateau is colder and wetter than the observations, while South China, East China, and India are drier. The model biases may be caused by the simulated anticyclonic and cyclonic biases in low-level circulations, the simulated water vapor content biases, and the inadequate physical parameterizations in the CCLM model. A parallel 0.44o simulation is conducted and the comparison results show some added value introduced by the higher resolution 0.22o simulation. As a result, the CCLM model could be an adequate member for the next stage of the CORDEX-EA project, while further studies should be encouraged.
Tang, Jianping,Li, Qian,Wang, Shuyu,Lee, Dong‐,Kyou,Hui, Pinhong,Niu, Xiaorui,Gutowski Jr., William J.,Dairaku, Koji,McGregor, John,Katzfey, Jack,Gao, Xuejie,Wu, Jia,Hong, Song‐,You,Wang, Wiley 2016 International journal of climatology Vol.36 No.13
<P><B>ABSTRACT</B></P><P>Under the Asia‐Pacific Network for Global Change (APN) project ‘Building Asian Climate Change Scenarios by Multi‐Regional Climate Models Ensemble’ (RMIP III, Regional Model Intercomparision Project), the simulation results of eight regional climate models (RCMs) and two fine‐resolution global climate models are validated for reproducibility of the current surface air temperature climatology (1981–2000), and are used to generate surface air future temperature projections (2041–2060) over the CORDEX‐EA (A Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment‐East Asia) domain. Four ensemble methods, namely, the equal weighting, the weighted mean, the reliability ensemble averaging, and the performance‐based ensemble averaging, are employed to generate the multi‐model projection of regional climate change over the region. The results show that the regional temperature ensembles of the present climate obtained from all four methods can outperform a single RCM result in aspects of the spatial distribution as well as the seasonal variation over East Asia. The four ensemble methods are then used to project the regional temperature climatology under the IPCC emission scenario of A1B for 2041–2060. Compared with the control climate of 1981–2000, the annual mean temperature of the future climate (2041–2060) increases 1–2 °C in low latitude areas and 2–3 °C in middle–high latitude areas over Asia.</P>
Li, Qian,Wang, Shuyu,Lee, Dong‐,Kyou,Tang, Jianping,Niu, Xiaorui,Hui, Pinhong,Gutowski Jr., William J.,Dairaku, Koji,McGregor, John L.,Katzfey, Jack,Gao, Xuejie,Wu, Jia,Hong, Song‐,You,Wan Wiley 2016 International journal of climatology Vol.36 No.13
<P><B>ABSTRACT</B></P><P>Under the framework of an project ‘Building Asian Climate Change Scenarios by Multi‐Regional Climate Models Ensemble’, the ability of eight regional climate models and two fine‐resolution global climate models to reproduce late 20th century (1981–2000) precipitation climatology is assessed. Future precipitation change (2041–2060) under the A1B scenario is also quantified by applying four different ensemble methods: equal weighting, weighted mean (WM), reliability ensemble averaging (REA) and performance‐based ensemble averaging, after applying fourfold cross‐validation using observation and multi‐model‐simulated precipitation. The results indicate that the ensemble of simulated precipitation outperforms any single RCM in many aspects. Among the four ensemble approaches, the WM and REA methods show better skill in improving the simulation results, and are used for ensemble prediction of regional climate in Asia. Under the A1B scenario, the WM method estimates future precipitation change of approximately 0.2 mm day<SUP>−1</SUP> with less precipitation in northern and western China and northern India, and more precipitation in most other areas in Asia. The future annual precipitation will decrease by 0.1‐0.5 mm day<SUP>−1</SUP> in northern India, Pakistan and the central area of southern China. No significant change is found over eastern Kazakhstan, Mongolia, north‐central and western China.</P>