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        Development and Validation of Web-Based Nomograms to Precisely Predict Survival Outcomes of Non-metastatic Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma in an Endemic Area

        Ji-Jin Yao,Li Lin,Tian-Sheng Gao,Wang-Jian Zhang,Wayne R. Lawrence,Jun Ma,Ying Sun 대한암학회 2021 Cancer Research and Treatment Vol.53 No.3

        Purpose This study aimed to develop web-based nomograms to precisely predict survival outcomes in patients with non-metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) in an endemic area. Materials and Methods A total of 10,126 patients who underwent radical intensity-modulated radiotherapy at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center (SYSUCC) from 2009 to 2015 were analyzed. We assigned patients into a training cohort (SYSUCC-A, n=6,751) and an internal validation cohort (SYSUCC-B, n=3,375) based on computer-generated random numbers. Patients collected from Wuzhou Red Cross Hospital (WZRCH) between 2012 and 2015 were used as the independent external validation cohort (WZRCH, n=450). Concordance index (C-index) was used to determine predictive accuracy and discriminative ability for the nomogram. The web-based clinicopathologic prediction models for predicting survival were based on Cox regression. Results The C-indexes for SYSUCC-A, SYSUCC-B, and WZRCH cohorts for the established nomograms to predict 3-year overall survival (OS) was 0.736, 0.715, and 0.691. Additionally, C-indexes to predict 3-year distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) was 0.717, 0.706, and 0.686, disease-free survival (DFS) was 0.713, 0.697, and 0.656, local relapse-free survival was 0.695, 0.684, and 0.652, and regional relapse-free survival was 0.672, 0.650, and 0.616. The calibration plots showed great agreement between nomogram-predicted 3-year survival outcomes and actual 3-year survival outcomes. Moreover, C-indexes of the nomograms for OS, DMFS, and DFS were significantly superior than TNM stage (p < 0.001 for all). Conclusion These user-friendly nomograms can precisely predict survival endpoints in patients with non-metastatic NPC. They may serve as a useful tool for providing patient counseling and help physicians to make individual follow-up plans.

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        The Characteristics and Survival Outcomes in Patients Aged 70 Years and Older with Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma in the Intensity-Modulated Radiotherapy Era

        Ya-Nan Jin,Wang-Jian Zhang,Xiu-Yu Cai,Mei-Su Li,Wayne R. Lawrence,Si-Yang Wang,Dong-Mei Mai,Yu-Yun Du,Dong-Hua Luo,Hao-Yuan Mo 대한암학회 2019 Cancer Research and Treatment Vol.51 No.1

        Purpose We aim to examine nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) characteristics and survival outcomes in patients aged 70 years and older in the intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) era. Materials and Methods From 2006 to 2013, 126 non-metastatic NPC patients aged  70 years who were treated with IMRT +/ chemotherapy were included. Adult Comorbidity Evaluation 27 (ACE-27) was used to measure patient comorbidities. The overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) were calculated with the Kaplan-Meier method, and differences were compared using the log-rank test. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to carry out multivariate analyses. Results For the entire group, only two patients (1.6%) presented stage I disease, and up to 84.1% patients had stage III-IVB disease. All patients had a comorbidity score of 0 in 24 (19.0%), 1 in 45 (35.7%), 2 in 42 (33.3%), and 3 in 15 (11.9%) patients. The main acute grade during radiotherapy was 3-4 adverse events consisting of mucositis (25.4%), bone marrow suppression (16.7%), and dermatitis (8.7%). After treatment, four patients (3.2%) developed temporal lobe injury. Five-year CSS and OS rates were 67.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 58.6% to 77.4%) and 54.0% (95% CI, 45.6% to 63.9%), respectively. Five-year OS was significantly higher for ACE-27 score 0-1 than ACE-27 score 2-3 (72.9% and 39.9%, respectively; p < 0.001). Multivariate analyses showed ACE-27 score 0-1 was significantly associated with superior OS (hazard ratio [HR], 3.02; 95% CI, 1.64 to 5.55; p < 0.001). In addition, the rate of OS was higher for stage I-III than that of stage IV, with borderline significance (HR, 1.67; 95% CI, 0.99 to 2.82; p=0.053). But no significant advantage was observed in OS when chemotherapy was used (p > 0.05). Conclusion Our findings suggest IMRT +/– chemotherapy has a manageable toxicity and provides an acceptable survival in patients aged  70 years with NPC. ACE-27 score was significantly associated with survival outcomes in this group population.

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