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Study on the Traffic Prediction of Vessels Passing through the Northern Sea Route (NSR)
Tsymzhitov Stanislav,박성훈,이해찬,최영서,여기태 배재대학교 한국-시베리아센터 2023 한국시베리아연구 Vol.27 No.1
The NSR has been attracting a large amount of interest worldwide because its commercial gain can prevail over other marine lines between the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Currently, scientific inquiry of the NSR has primarily focused on commercial usefulness, tendency scrutiny, and security. Nevertheless, the scant of research has been made on the prediction of vessels passing through the Northern Sea Route (NSR). The aim of current research is to investigate the estimated prospect of vessel volumes using the dossier of vessels that have sailed via the NSR from January 2015 to December 2019. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Box-Jenkins model was used. Bulk carriers demonstrated quarterly seasonality, and it was approximated that the statistics of bulk carrier shipments would grow steadily. Container ships were anticipated to keep a complementary level of service because the figures of the predicted categories were estimated as being analogous.
LISTAN BERNAL MARIA,니콜라예바 올가,Tsymzhitov Stanislav,여기태 배재대학교 한국-시베리아센터 2023 한국시베리아연구 Vol.27 No.3
This research aims to determine potential factors related to the improvement of safety practices regarding ice road trucking in the Lena River area in Russia. The CFPR methodology proposed in this study provides a framework that serves as a guide to prioritizing safety factors in decision-making processes. Furthermore, the identification of ice road conditions, the promotion of ice road information, and driver behavior, as the top three safety factors, highlight the urgent need for improved maintenance efforts, reliable information dissemination, and enhance training for truck drivers. Addressing these safety factors could result in significant improvements in the safety and efficiency of ice road transportation in the Lena River region. Industrial implications can be found in this study in light of the decision-making solutions provided, which can establish a starting point in the policy-making decisions made by the Russian government, local authorities, and related stakeholders.