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Lukens, Katherine E.,Feldstein, Steven B.,Yoo, Changhyun,Lee, Sukyoung Wiley Blackwell (John WileySons) 2017 Quarterly journal of the Royal Meteorological Soci Vol.143 No.703
<P>For all eight MJO phases, it is found that the extratropical response over the North Pacific and North America is almost entirely due to the MJO convection over the western tropical Pacific. The RWS is excited within the first 24 h after the model heating is turned on. For MJO phases 1-3 and 8, the RWS leads to the development of a cyclonic anomaly over southeast Asia via advection of the climatological absolute vorticity by the anomalous divergent wind in the subtropics and by horizontal convergence in the Tropics. MJO phases 4-7 show opposite features. The resulting anomaly is then advected eastward by the climatological zonal wind toward the central Pacific, after which dispersion into the extratropics and the excitation of a Pacific/North American teleconnection pattern takes place.</P>
Subseasonal Prediction of Wintertime East Asian Temperature Based on Atmospheric Teleconnections
Yoo, Changhyun,Johnson, Nathaniel C.,Chang, Chueh-Hsin,Feldstein, Steven B.,Kim, Young-Ha American Meteorological Society 2018 Journal of climate Vol.31 No.22
<P> A composite-based statistical model utilizing Northern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns is developed to predict East Asian wintertime surface air temperature for lead times out to 6 weeks. The level of prediction is determined by using the Heidke skill score. The prediction skill of the statistical model is compared with that of hindcast simulations by a climate model, Global Seasonal Forecast System, version 5. When employed individually, three teleconnections (i.e., the east Atlantic/western Russian, Scandinavian, and polar/Eurasian teleconnection patterns) are found to provide skillful predictions for lead times beyond 4-5 weeks. When information from the teleconnections and the long-term linear trend are combined, the statistical model outperforms the climate model for lead times beyond 3 weeks, especially during those times when the teleconnections are in their active phases. </P>