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Newly Developed Sex-Specific Z Score Model for Coronary Artery Diameter in a Pediatric Population
Yu Jeong Jin,Choi Hee Joung,Cho Hwa Jin,Kim Sung Hye,Cheon Eun Jung,Kim Gi Beom,Eun Lucy Youngmin,Jung Se Yong,Jun Hyun Ok,Woo Hyang-Ok,Park Sin-Ae,Yoon Soyoung,Ko Hoon,Ban Ji-Eun,Choi Jong-Woon,Song 대한의학회 2024 Journal of Korean medical science Vol.39 No.16
Background: This study aimed to generate a Z score calculation model for coronary artery diameter of normal children and adolescents to be adopted as the standard calculation method with consensus in clinical practice. Methods: This study was a retrospective, multicenter study that collected data from multiple institutions across South Korea. Data were analyzed to determine the model that best fit the relationship between the diameter of coronary arteries and independent demographic parameters. Linear, power, logarithmic, exponential, and square root polynomial models were tested for best fit. Results: Data of 2,030 subjects were collected from 16 institutions. Separate calculation models for each sex were developed because the impact of demographic variables on the diameter of coronary arteries differs according to sex. The final model was the polynomial formula with an exponential relationship between the diameter of coronary arteries and body surface area using the DuBois formula. Conclusion: A new coronary artery diameter Z score model was developed and is anticipated to be applicable in clinical practice. The new model will help establish a consensus-based Z score model.
Soyoung Kim,Yu Bin Seo,Eunok Jung 한국역학회 2020 Epidemiology and Health Vol.42 No.-
OBJECTIVES: Since the report of the first confirmed case in Daegu on February 18, 2020, local transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Korea has continued. In this study, we aimed to identify the pattern of local transmission of COVID-19 using mathematical modeling and predict the epidemic size and the timing of the end of the spread. METHODS: We modeled the COVID-19 outbreak in Korea by applying a mathematical model of transmission that factors in behavioral changes. We used the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data of daily confirmed cases in the country to estimate the nationwide and Daegu/Gyeongbuk area-specific transmission rates as well as behavioral change parameters using a least-squares method. RESULTS: The number of transmissions per infected patient was estimated to be about 10 times higher in the Daegu/Gyeongbuk area than the average of nationwide. Using these estimated parameters, our models predicts that about 13,800 cases will occur nationwide and 11,400 cases in the Daegu/Gyeongbuk area until mid-June. CONCLUSIONS: We mathematically demonstrate that the relatively high per-capita rate of transmission and the low rate of changes in behavior have caused a large-scale transmission of COVID-19 in the Daegu/Gyeongbuk area in Korea. Since the outbreak is expected to continue until May, non-pharmaceutical interventions that can be sustained over the long term are required.