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Choi, W.,Ho, C. H.,Jin, C. S.,Kim, J.,Feng, S.,Park, D. S.,Schemm, J. K. Springer Science + Business Media 2016 Climate dynamics Vol.47 No.9
<P>Intense tropical cyclones (TCs) accompanying torrential rain and powerful wind gusts often cause substantial socio-economic losses in the regions around their landfall. This study analyzes intense TCs in the North Atlantic (NA) and the western North Pacific (WNP) basins during the period 1982-2013. Different intensity criteria are used to define intense TCs for these two basins, category 1 and above for NA and category 3 and above for WNP, because the number of TCs in the NA basin is much smaller than that in the WNP basin. Using a fuzzy clustering method, intense TC tracks in the NA and the WNP basins are classified into two and three representative patterns, respectively. On the basis of the clustering results, a track-pattern-based model is then developed for forecasting the seasonal activities of intense TCs in the two basins. Cross-validation of the model skill for 1982-2013 as well as verification of a forecast for the 2014 TC season suggest that our intense TC model is applicable to operational uses.</P>
How are seasonal prediction skills related to models’ performance on mean state and annual cycle?
Lee, June-Yi,Wang, Bin,Kang, I.-S.,Shukla, J.,Kumar, A.,Kug, J.-S.,Schemm, J. K. E.,Luo, J.-J.,Yamagata, T.,Fu, X.,Alves, O.,Stern, B.,Rosati, T.,Park, C.-K. Springer-Verlag 2010 Climate dynamics Vol. No.