China, the Nuclear Problem, and Prospect of the Peninsular : Persistent Dilemmas with a Promising Future

Shi Yinhong 부산대학교 중국연구소 2010 Journal of China Studies Vol.8 No.-

China and the United States in East Asia

Shi Yinhong(스인홍) 한국전략문제연구소 2012 전략연구 Vol.55 No.-

최근 몇 년 동북아, 동남아를 포함한 서태평양지역에서 중국의 외교적 영향력이 급속도록 감소하였다. 이는 중국의 일본, 한국, 동남아국가들과의 관계 불안정에서 기인한 것이었다. 이러한 중국의 영향력 하락은 상대적으로 미국의 이 지역에서의 영향력 확대로 이어졌다. 2010년 센카쿠열도/댜오위다오에서 영해를 침범한 혐의로 일본에 구속됐던 중국인 선장을 석방하는 과정에서 보여준 중국의 대일 압박태도는 일본의 대중 감정을 악화시켰다. 천안함 사건 이후 서해에서의 한미 합동해상군사훈련 실시에 대한 중국의 강경한 대응은 한국으로 하여금 미국과의 동맹을 더욱 중시하게 하였다. 중국과 필리핀, 베트남 등 동남아 국가들과의 해양, 영토분쟁 및 중국 해군의 장거리 투사능력 확대는 중국을 군사적 위협으로 보는 시각을 강화하였다. 중국의 전반적인 국력상승과 세련되지 못한 독단적인 외교행태는 아시아 국가들의 대 중국 의구심과 우려를 확산하였다. 미국은 이 지역의 반중 정서를 잘 활용함으로써 용이하게 이 지역의 ‘맹주’로 복귀하였다. 실제 남중국해 갈등 직후인 2010년 7월 베트남 하노이에서 개최된 아세안지역안보포럼에서 힐러리 클린턴 미 국무장관은 항행의 자유라는 명분하에 역내 국가들의 지지를 확보하였다. 미국은 경제력과 금융력이 약화되었지만 연성파워를 이용한 전방위적인 대중 공세로 이 지역에서의 대중 우위를 확보하였다. 한편, 지역내 반발과 미국의 귀환은 중국외교에 큰 어려움을 가져왔다. 이러한 배경에는 여러 이유가 있겠지만 중국외교의 정책결정의 복잡성과 과정에서의 문제점에 기인한 바 크다. 즉, 개별 외교사건의 중요성 여부의 판단 혼란과 미숙한 대응, 정부내 관련 부처간 조율의 부족, 또 마오쩌둥과 덩샤오핑과 비교할 때 떨어지는 현 지도부의 정책장악력도 그 원인이었다. 관료, 군부, 정부, 국영기업 등 중국의 신엘리트그룹들의 이익집단화와 이들의 대외정책 결정과정에 미치는 영향도 무시할 수 없었다. 또 인민과 미디어의 민족주의적 성향은 중국정부으로 하여금 파플리즘적 강경한 대응을 하였고, 급기야 미국을 이 지역에 다시 불러들이는 꼴이 되었다. 그러나 인민들의 불만에도 불구하고 최근 중국정부는 좀 더 거시적인 시각에서 문제를 해결하고자 고민하고 있으며, 실제로 동남아와 동북아 지역 국가들에게 화해의 제스처를 보내고 있다. 중국정부는 영토분쟁중인 국가들과는 기존의 “논쟁유보 공동개발(?置??、共同??)” 입장을 재강조함으로써 마찰을 최소화하고자 하며, 역내 기타 국가들과는 가능한 갈등을 축소하며, 무엇보다도 미국과는 북한문제 등에 협력함으로써 미국에 대중 압박 빌미를 주지 않으려 한다. 비록 중국외교에 적지 않은 문제점이 있음에도 이러한 정책의 변화는 중국외교의 잠재력과 능력이 여전히 유효함을 보여준다. 중국은 외교정책의 철학, 소프트파워/스마트파워, 대전략차원에서 미국과 비교해 많이 부족하지만, 여전히 균형감각을 가지고 적절히 작동하고 있다. 중국은 국가지도자들의 전략과 의지 및 대응역량 차원에서 나름대로 외교적 자산과 능력을 가지고 있으며, 이에 근거해 향후 좀 더 의미 있는 외교적 경쟁력을 갖추고 가시적인 성과를 낼 수 있을 것으로 보인다. Contrary to the picture of the game a few years ago, China’s diplomatic influence and effectiveness in its immediate periphery has been shrunk for a time, while the United States won in the same region so much new advantages diplomatically and strategically. These U.S. achievements are in a great extent due to their vitally important “chanced” conditions, conditions or conveniences not created but readily used by the policy makers in Washington. They include among other things China’s own problem emerged in the most recent years in foreign policy orientation, diplomatic manner, and policy-making mechanism. In its relations with East Asian neighbours at large, the newly Chinese “triumphalism” is obvious on the part of public as well as policy elites, though for the latter the degree is indeed remarkably less. However, it is still much more complicated in performance and causes than what has been generally perceived outside China. For the causes of this complex “triumphalism,” the most important one should be found in “G2 the Chinese version,” a really untraditional conception in the contemporary Chinese foreign policy orientation that should be put into question and analysis. Besides, there has been also national dynamics in the related decision-making, i.e., rising popular nationalism reinforced bymuch less regularized mass media and bureaucratic in-coordination. The Chinese leaders and government have been indeed thereby restrained and interfered at various foreign policy issues in different times, but one still has to guard against the overestimation of the influence exerted by these forces. When they on a particular issue is quite prominent, this state of affairs is just an effect of confusion, hesitation, or temporary lack of sufficient attention on the part of the leaders, though the structural factors such as increasing complexities of an increasingly expanding government machine and that of foreign policy challenges are also important. All the analyses on these dynamics indicate an essential point: in despite of them, political leadership is still decisive.

BACK TO THE FUTURE

SHI YINHONG 한반도선진화재단 2010 한반도선진화재단 기타 단행본 Vol.- No.-

China and the Obstacles to the Northeast Asian Security Multilateralism

Shi Yinhong 한반도선진화재단 2011 한반도선진화재단 기타 단행본 Vol.- No.-

Provision of Two-area Automatic Generation Control by Demand-side Electric Vehicle Battery Swapping Stations

Xie, Pingping,Shi, Dongyuan,Li, Yinhong The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers 2016 Journal of Electrical Engineering & Technology Vol.11 No.2

Application of demand-side resources to automatic generation control (AGC) has a great significance for improving the dynamic control performance of power system frequency regulation. This paper investigates the possibility of providing regulation services by demand-side energy storage in electric vehicle battery swapping stations (BSS). An interaction framework, namely station-to-grid (S2G), is presented to integrate BSS energy storage into power grid for giving benefits to frequency regulation. The BSS can be regarded as a lumped battery energy storage station through S2G framework. A supplementary AGC method using demand-side BSS energy storage is developed considering the vehicle user demand of battery swapping. The effects to the AGC performance are evaluated through simulations by using a two-area interconnected power grid model with step and random load disturbance. The results show that the demand-side BSS can significantly suppress the frequency deviation and tie-line power fluctuations.

Latin Hypercube Sampling Based Probabilistic Small Signal Stability Analysis Considering Load Correlation

Jian Zuo,Yinhong Li,Defu Cai,Dongyuan Shi 대한전기학회 2014 Journal of Electrical Engineering & Technology Vol.9 No.6

A novel probabilistic small signal stability analysis (PSSSA) method considering load correlation is proposed in this paper. The superiority Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) technique combined with Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) is utilized to investigate the probabilistic small signal stability of power system in presence of load correlation. LHS helps to reduce the sampling size, meanwhile guarantees the accuracy and robustness of the solutions. The correlation coefficient matrix is adopted to represent the correlations between loads. Simulation results of the two-area, four-machine system prove that the proposed method is an efficient and robust sampling method. Simulation results of the 16-machine, 68-bus test system indicate that load correlation has a significant impact on the probabilistic analysis result of the critical oscillation mode under a certain degree of load uncertainty.

A New Definition of Short-circuit Ratio for Multi-converter HVDC Systems

Liu, Dengfeng,Shi, Dongyuan,Li, Yinhong The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers 2015 Journal of Electrical Engineering & Technology Vol.10 No.5

In this paper, a new definition of short-circuit ratio concept for multi-converter HVDC systems is proposed. Analysis results of voltage interaction between converters show that the reactive power-voltage characteristic of a converter has a dominant effect on voltage interaction level compared with its active power-voltage characteristic. Such a relation between converter reactive power and voltage interaction level supports taking the former into account in the definition of short-circuit ratio concept for multi-converter systems. The proposed definition is verified by the method of maximum power curve for various system configurations. Furthermore, a formula to calculate transient overvoltage for multi-converter systems is derived based on the proposed definition, and the efficiency of the derived formula is verified.

A New Definition of Short-circuit Ratio for Multi-converter HVDC Systems

Dengfeng Liu,Dongyuan Shi,Yinhong Li 대한전기학회 2015 Journal of Electrical Engineering & Technology Vol.10 No.5

In this paper, a new definition of short-circuit ratio concept for multi-converter HVDC systems is proposed. Analysis results of voltage interaction between converters show that the reactive power-voltage characteristic of a converter has a dominant effect on voltage interaction level compared with its active power-voltage characteristic. Such a relation between converter reactive power and voltage interaction level supports taking the former into account in the definition of short-circuit ratio concept for multi-converter systems. The proposed definition is verified by the method of maximum power curve for various system configurations. Furthermore, a formula to calculate transient overvoltage for multi-converter systems is derived based on the proposed definition, and the efficiency of the derived formula is verified.

Latin Hypercube Sampling Based Probabilistic Small Signal Stability Analysis Considering Load Correlation

Zuo, Jian,Li, Yinhong,Cai, Defu,Shi, Dongyuan The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers 2014 Journal of Electrical Engineering & Technology Vol.9 No.6

A novel probabilistic small signal stability analysis (PSSSA) method considering load correlation is proposed in this paper. The superiority Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) technique combined with Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) is utilized to investigate the probabilistic small signal stability of power system in presence of load correlation. LHS helps to reduce the sampling size, meanwhile guarantees the accuracy and robustness of the solutions. The correlation coefficient matrix is adopted to represent the correlations between loads. Simulation results of the two-area, four-machine system prove that the proposed method is an efficient and robust sampling method. Simulation results of the 16-machine, 68-bus test system indicate that load correlation has a significant impact on the probabilistic analysis result of the critical oscillation mode under a certain degree of load uncertainty.

Provision of Two-area Automatic Generation Control by Demand-side Electric Vehicle Battery Swapping Stations

Pingping Xie,Dongyuan Shi,Yinhong Li 대한전기학회 2016 Journal of Electrical Engineering & Technology Vol.11 No.2

Application of demand-side resources to automatic generation control (AGC) has a great significance for improving the dynamic control performance of power system frequency regulation. This paper investigates the possibility of providing regulation services by demand-side energy storage in electric vehicle battery swapping stations (BSS). An interaction framework, namely station-to-grid (S2G), is presented to integrate BSS energy storage into power grid for giving benefits to frequency regulation. The BSS can be regarded as a lumped battery energy storage station through S2G framework. A supplementary AGC method using demand-side BSS energy storage is developed considering the vehicle user demand of battery swapping. The effects to the AGC performance are evaluated through simulations by using a two-area interconnected power grid model with step and random load disturbance. The results show that the demand-side BSS can significantly suppress the frequency deviation and tie-line power fluctuations.