Supply Driven Input-Output Analysis: Case of 2010-2011 Foot-and-Mouth Disease in Korea

김만근 ( Man Keun Kim ) 한국농촌경제연구원 2015 농촌경제 Vol.38 No.2

The objective of this study is to determine the direct and indirect economic impacts of the 2010-2011 Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) outbreaks in Korea using a supply-driven input-output (IO) model. The supply-driven model is better than a standard demand-driven IO model in situations where the event alters sectoral production not the final demand. Obviously, the FMD outbreak is a supply reduction question and the standard IO approach may not completely reflect all the economic impacts. Both backward linkage (upstream sectors) and forward linkage (downstream sectors) effects of the FMD outbreaks are measured. The study shows that backward linkage effects in feed and manufacturing sectors and forward effects in dairy and livestock processing sectors are strong. Total direct and indirect economic impact is estimated to be 7.6 trillion Korean Won which is much larger than the economic impact from the standard final demand- driven IO analysis.

The Effects of Household Differentiation and Population Aging on Juice Consumption in Korea

김만근(Man-Keun KIM),김화년(Hwa-Nyeon KIM) 제주대학교 관광과경영경제연구소 2021 産經論集 Vol.41 No.1

Purpose: This study investigates the impact of increases in single-person households and aging population on fruit juice consumption in Korea. Juice consumption in Korea has been steadily decreased. It may be mainly due to the health concerns, as there are a lot of sugar in fruit juices. We hypothesize that single-person households and the aging population may have affected the decrease in juice consumption. Research design, data and methodology: We used data from the 2018 Consumer Behavior Survey for Food. The survey question asks respondents about beverage choice as “Select all the beverage you drink frequently at home” and multiple responses are allowed. Because the preferred beverage is not identified and selections of the beverage are not mutually exclusive, the logit model is adopted respectively for each beverage choice. Results: Single-person household is negatively related to the choice of fruit juice. It implies that single-person household drinks fruit juice less frequently. Age group has the negative relationship with choices of fruit juice. Conclusions: The decrease in juice consumption will not only affect the beverage market, but also the fresh fruit market. Therefore, the beverage industry should strategically develop healthy juices such as adding probiotics to rebound juice consumption.

고등학교 태권도 지도자 리더십유형이 선수의 자아존중감, 성취목표지향성 및 경기력에 미치는 영향

김만근(Kim, Man-Keun) 한국체육과학회 2014 한국체육과학회지 Vol.23 No.3

The purpose of this study was to look into how the leadership type of high school Taekwondo athletes’ instructors might affect the self-Esteem, achievement goal orientation, and perception athletic performance and to provide the basic data that could help improve the instruction techniques of high school Taekwondo instructors. among the collected questionnaires, a total of 376 questionnaires were used for the real analysis, excluding the questionnaires that were deemed to be inadequate or have no value as data. The statistical techniques, which were used for the analysis of this study, frequency analysis, exploratory factor analysis, reliability analysis, correlation analysis, and structure equation model analysis, by using SPSS 18.0 and AMOS 7.0. Through these procedures, the following conclusions were elicited. First, the leadership of Taekwondo instructors was found to have significant effect on the self-Esteem of athletes. Second, the leadership of Taekwondo instructors was found to have significant impact on the achievement goal orientation of athletes. Third, the leadership of Taekwondo instructors did not have any significant effect on the athletes’perception athletic performance. Fourth, the leadership of Taekwondo instructors was found to have significant effect on the self-esteem, achievement goal orientation, of Taekwondo athletes. Fifth, the leadership of Taekwondo instructors was found to have significant effect on the Taekwondo athletes’ self-esteem and perception athletic performance. Six, the leadership of Taekwondo instructors was found to have significant effect on the Taekwondo athletes’achievement goal orientation, and perception athletic performance.

An Ex-post Impact Assessment of the KOR-USA Free Trade Agreement on the Korean Citrus Industry

김배성,김만근,Kim, Bae-Sung,Kim, Man-Keun The Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society 2020 한국산학기술학회논문지 Vol.21 No.4

한미 FTA 체결 이후 미국산 오렌지의 지속적인 수입증가에 따른 국내 감귤산업 파급영향에 대한 관심이 높다. 이 연구는 한미 FTA 발효 이후 2012-2017년 동안의 감귤산업의 변화를 계측하고, 한미 FTA 도입이 감귤산업에 미치는 사후 영향을 평가하였다. 이 연구는 분석을 위해 감귤류를 노지감귤, 하우스감귤, 만감류 부문으로 구분하고, 각 부문별 수급균형모형을 구축하여 시뮬레이션 분석에 이용하였다. 각 부문내 주요 방정식들은 응용계량경제학 방법을 이용하여 추정하고, 각 부문별 수급구조모형은 동태축차적 시뮬레이션모형으로 구축하여 2012-2017년 동안에 대해 연차별로 정책 시뮬레이션이 가능하도록 하였다. 각 모형은 작물연도를 기준으로 구축되었고, 해당 시기에 수입되는 오렌지, 체리 등에 수입산 대체가능 작물에 대한 효과를 고려할 수 있도록 설계되었다. 시뮬레이션 분석에 앞서 각 부문별 모형에 대한 예측력을 RMSPE, MAPE, Theil의 불균등계수 등을 기준으로 검토하였다. MAPE 기준으로 노지감귤, 하우스감귤, 만감류의 재배면적 1-7%, 생산량 5-9%, 소비량 5-10%, 경락가격 5-10% 내외의 오차율을 보여, 각 부문별 모형의 주요 변수에 대한 추정치들의 예측력이 전반적으로 양호한 수준으로 나타났다. 예측력 검토결과를 바탕으로 시뮬레이션 분석을 실시한 결과, 한미 FTA 발효 이후 2012-2017년 연평균 조수입(실질)이 노지감귤 23.9억 원, 하우스감귤 30.1억원, 만감류 151.1억 원 감소한 것으로 나타났다. 또한 이 논문은 기존에 2018년 정부부문(KREI)에서 실시한 영향평가방법 및 결과의 차이점을 비교 검토하고 해석시 유의사항 및 정책적 함의를 제안하고 있다. This study measured the economic impact (from 2012 through the end of 2017) of the KOR-USA FTA (Free Trade Agreement) on the Korean citrus industry according to importing orange from the USA after the implementation of the KOR-USA FTA. Citrus fruits were divided into field citrus grown in open fields, house citrus grown in green houses, and late-maturing citrus (including winter season citrus) based on the cultivation methods and the varieties of citrus. We specified the structural and dynamic recursive demand-supply equilibrium models of three citrus fruits to analyze policy simulations. The results showed that for field citrus, due to the impact of some amounts of TRQ, the annual average of the real gross revenue dropped by 2.39 billion KRW between 2012 and 2017. As for house citrus, due to the impact of oranges and cherries, the annual average of the real gross revenue declined by 3.01 billion KRW between 2012 and 2017, and for late-maturing citrus (including winter season citrus), the annual average of the real gross revenue fell by 15.11 billion KRW between 2012 and 2017. This paper also suggests several policy implications.

An Ex-post Impact Assessment of the KOR-USA Free Trade Agreement on the Korean Citrus Industry

Bae-Sung Kim(김배성),Man-Keun Kim(김만근) 한국산학기술학회 2020 한국산학기술학회논문지 Vol.21 No.4

한미 FTA 체결 이후 미국산 오렌지의 지속적인 수입증가에 따른 국내 감귤산업 파급영향에 대한 관심이 높다. 이 연구는 한미 FTA 발효 이후 2012-2017년 동안의 감귤산업의 변화를 계측하고, 한미 FTA 도입이 감귤산업에 미치는 사후 영향을 평가하였다. 이 연구는 분석을 위해 감귤류를 노지감귤, 하우스감귤, 만감류 부문으로 구분하고, 각 부문별 수급균형모형을 구축하여 시뮬레이션 분석에 이용하였다. 각 부문내 주요 방정식들은 응용계량경제학 방법을 이용하여 추정하고, 각 부문별 수급구조모형은 동태축차적 시뮬레이션모형으로 구축하여 2012-2017년 동안에 대해 연차별로 정책 시뮬레이션이 가능하도록 하였다. 각 모형은 작물연도를 기준으로 구축되었고, 해당 시기에 수입되는 오렌지, 체리등에 수입산 대체가능 작물에 대한 효과를 고려할 수 있도록 설계되었다. 시뮬레이션 분석에 앞서 각 부문별 모형에 대한 예측력을 RMSPE, MAPE, Theil의 불균등계수 등을 기준으로 검토하였다. MAPE 기준으로 노지감귤, 하우스감귤, 만감류의 재배면적 1-7%, 생산량 5-9%, 소비량 5-10%, 경락가격 5-10% 내외의 오차율을 보여, 각 부문별 모형의 주요변수에 대한 추정치들의 예측력이 전반적으로 양호한 수준으로 나타났다. 예측력 검토결과를 바탕으로 시뮬레이션 분석을 실시한 결과, 한미 FTA 발효 이후 2012-2017년 연평균 조수입(실질)이 노지감귤 23.9억 원, 하우스감귤 30.1억원, 만감류 151.1억 원 감소한 것으로 나타났다. 또한 이 논문은 기존에 2018년 정부부문(KREI)에서 실시한 영향평가 방법 및 결과의 차이점을 비교 검토하고 해석시 유의사항 및 정책적 함의를 제안하고 있다. This study measured the economic impact (from 2012 through the end of 2017) of the KOR-USA FTA (Free Trade Agreement) on the Korean citrus industry according to importing orange from the USA after the implementation of the KOR-USA FTA. Citrus fruits were divided into field citrus grown in open fields, house citrus grown in green houses, and late-maturing citrus (including winter season citrus) based on the cultivation methods and the varieties of citrus. We specified the structural and dynamic recursive demand-supply equilibrium models of three citrus fruits to analyze policy simulations. The results showed that for field citrus, due to the impact of some amounts of TRQ, the annual average of the real gross revenue dropped by 2.39 billion KRW between 2012 and 2017. As for house citrus, due to the impact of oranges and cherries, the annual average of the real gross revenue declined by 3.01 billion KRW between 2012 and 2017, and for late-maturing citrus (including winter season citrus), the annual average of the real gross revenue fell by 15.11 billion KRW between 2012 and 2017. This paper also suggests several policy implications.

A Simulation Analysis on the Economic Impact of U.S. Tangerine Importing in the Korean Citrus Industry

Bae-Sung Kim(김배성),Hwa-Nyeon Kim(김화년),Man-Keun Kim(김만근),Seong-Bo Ko(고성보) 한국산학기술학회 2020 한국산학기술학회논문지 Vol.21 No.7

미국의 탄저린 감귤귤 재배면적은 2009년 19,000ha에서 2016년 27,000ha로 급격히 증가하여 7년 동안 42% 증가했다. 최근 일본으로의 수출이 급증함에 따라 향후 약 6 ~7천 톤의 수출량이 증가할 가능성이 높다. 따라서, 본연구의 목적은 미국 탄저린 수입이 감귤산업에 미치는 경제적 파급효과를 다양한 시나리오를 통해 시뮬레이션 분석을 하는데 있다. 미국 탄저린감귤의 수입 가능성을 조사하기 위해 미국 감귤이 수입된 적인 없기 때문에 미국 탄저린 감귤의 일본 수출 단가가 사용되었다. 감귤류는 재배 방법과 품종에 따라 노지감귤, 하우스감귤, 한라봉 등 만감류(월동 온주 포함)로 분류하였다. 노지와 하우스감귤의 생산시즌을 고려해 보면, 미국 탄저리감귤의 수입량은 2021년 약 4,700 톤에서 2027년에는 10,000톤으로 증가할 것으로 예상된다. 미국 탄저린감귤의 수입은 국내산 노지와 하우스감귤의 생산량과 품질뿐만 아니라 미국산 탄저린감귤의 생산량에 따라 변동될 수 있다. 그렇지만, 미국 탄저린감귤의 관세율이 50% 이하로 떨어지는 2021년 이후에는 수입될 수 있다는 점을 명심해야 한다. The acreage of tangerines in the U.S. sharply rose from 19,000 ha in 2009 to 27,000 ha in 2016, an increase of 42% in 7 years. Considering the recent surge in tangerine exports to Japan, the export volume of 6-7 thousand tons is highly likely to increase in the future. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to analyze the economic impact of U.S. tangerine imports on the Korean citrus industry under various scenarios. In order to examine the possibility of imports of U.S. tangerines, the unit price of U.S. exports to Japan was used since U.S. tangerines are not imported to South Korea. Citrus fruits are divided into field citrus, house citrus, and late-maturing citrus (including winter season citrus) based on the cultivation method and variety used to analyze. Considering both the field and house seasons, the import volume of U.S. tangerines can be expected to rise from roughly 4,700 tons in 2021 to 10,000 tons in 2027. Imports of U.S. tangerines may be pushed up or delayed depending not only on the harvest method and quality of domestic field and house citrus but also on the harvest of U.S. tangerines. However, it is necessary to note that tangerines could be imported after 2021, when the tariff rate on U.S. tangerines will fall below 50%.

전기자동차 충전서비스 적정요금제 산출

김현중(Hyunjung Kim),김대욱(Dae-Wook Kim),김만근(Man-Keun Kim),Gil-Dong Lee 대한전기학회 2021 대한전기학회 학술대회 논문집 Vol.2021 No.7

태권도 지도자의 거래적·변혁적 리더십이 자아존중감과 성취목표지향성에 미치는 영향

이호열(Lee, Ho-Youl),남행웅(Nam, Haeng-Woong),김만근(Kim, Man-Keun) 한국체육과학회 2011 한국체육과학회지 Vol.20 No.5

The purpose of this study was to analyze transaction and transformational leadership of Taekwondo Instructors on self-esteem and achievement goal orientation. For the purpose, questionnaires were distributed to and collected from 422 high school Taekwondo players in South Korea and their answers were analyzed by using such statistical test methods as correlation and multiple regression analysis. The following conclusions have been drawn from the analyses. First, it is found that the qualities of Taekwondo instructors had positive effects on personal self-esteem of Taekwondo players in the order of individual consideration, charisma, and exceptional management; and individual consideration leadership had a positive effect on physical ability. Furthermore, exceptional management and individual consideration leadership had a positive effect on the intellectual ability factors of self-esteem; and individual consideration leadership had a positive effect on friendship while conditional reward leadership had a negative effect on friendship. Second, individual consideration and charisma leadership of Taekwondo instructors had positive effects on task orientation of Taekwondo players, and exceptional management had a negative effect on task orientation. Task orientation was relatively more affected by exceptional management, by individual consideration and then charisma leadership. However, transactional and transformational leadership did not affect ego orientation.

유소년축구선수의 Big5 성격요인과 인지된 경기력의 관계

허진혁(Heo, Jin-Hyuk),조기정(Cho, Ki-Jung),김만근(Kim, Man-Keun) 세계태권도문화학회 2018 세계태권도문화학회지 Vol.9 No.4

This study aims to identify the relationship between Big5 personality factors and perceived performance of youth soccer players, and it is meaningful to provide empirical data on personality factors in psychological counseling or personality education of youth soccer players. The Seoul Metropolitan Elementary School Soccer Weekend League players were set as populations and 384 samples were extracted for final data analysis. Frequency analysis, One-way ANOVA, and post-verification Scheffe and regression analysis were conducted for research purposes. First, the Big5 personality factors according to the personal characteristics of youth soccer players Second, the perceived performance of the youth soccer player according to the personal characteristics was not statistically significant. The Big5 personality factors of youth soccer players have a statistical impact on perceived performance.

Ashbya gossypii JAG - 13 변이주에 의한 riboflavin 의 생산

심문보(Moon Bo Shim),염성관(Sung Kwan Yum),김만근(Man Keun Kim),방원기(Won Gi Bang) 한국응용생명화학회 1993 Applied Biological Chemistry (Appl Biol Chem) Vol.36 No.5

For the production of riboflavin, strain development of Ashbya gossypii NRRL Y-1056 was attempted by NTG(N-methyl-N`-nitro-N-nitrosoguanidine) treatment. The optimum composition of culture medium and other culture conditions for the production of riboflavin by selected mutant Ashbya gossypii JAG-13 were determined. The optimum composition of medium was 9% of corn oil, 3% of gellatone, 4% of CSL, 0.3% of glycine, 0.2% of S770. The optimum culture temperature and initial pH of medium was 28℃ and 6.5, respectively. oxygen was essential for the production of riboflavin, but excess oxygen inhibit the production of riboflavin. When Ashbya gossypii JAG-13 was cultured under above conditions for 12 days with a bioreactor, 6.9 ㎎/㎖ of riboflavin was produced.