The impact of near-term climate policy choices on technology and emission transition pathways

Eom, J.,Edmonds, J.,Krey, V.,Johnson, N.,Longden, T.,Luderer, G.,Riahi, K.,Van Vuuren, D.P. American Elsevier 2015 TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE Vol.90 No.1

This paper explores the implications of delays (to 2030) in implementing optimal policies for long-term transition pathways to limit climate forcing to 450ppm CO<SUB>2</SUB>e on the basis of the AMPERE Work Package 2 model comparison study. The paper highlights the critical importance of the period 2030-2050 for ambitious mitigation strategies. In this period, the most rapid shift to low greenhouse gas emitting technology occurs. In the delayed response emission mitigation scenarios, an even faster transition rate in this period is required to compensate for the additional emissions before 2030. Our physical deployment measures indicate that the availability of CCS technology could play a critical role in facilitating the attainment of ambitious mitigation goals. Without CCS, deployment of other mitigation technologies would become extremely high in the 2030-2050 period. Yet the presence of CCS greatly alleviates the challenges to the transition particularly after the delayed climate policies, lowering the risk that the long-term goal becomes unattainable. The results also highlight the important role of bioenergy with CO<SUB>2</SUB> capture and storage (BECCS), which facilitates energy production with negative carbon emissions. If BECCS is available, transition pathways exceed the emission budget in the mid-term, removing the excess with BECCS in the long term. Excluding either BE or CCS from the technology portfolio implies that emission reductions need to take place much earlier.

Long-term global water projections using six socioeconomic scenarios in an integrated assessment modeling framework

Hejazi, M.,Edmonds, J.,Clarke, L.,Kyle, P.,Davies, E.,Chaturvedi, V.,Wise, M.,Patel, P.,Eom, J.,Calvin, K.,Moss, R.,Kim, S. American Elsevier 2014 TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE Vol.81 No.-

In this paper, we assess future water demands for the agricultural (irrigation and livestock), energy (electricity generation, primary energy production and processing), industrial (manufacturing and mining), and municipal sectors, by incorporating water demands into a technologically-detailed global integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, and climate change - the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Base-year water demands - both gross withdrawals and net consumptive use - are assigned to specific modeled activities in a way that maximizes consistency between bottom-up estimates of water demand intensities of specific technologies and practices, and top-down regional and sectoral estimates of water use. The energy, industrial, and municipal sectors are represented in fourteen geopolitical regions, with the agricultural sector further disaggregated into as many as eighteen agro-ecological zones (AEZs) within each region. We assess future water demands representing six socioeconomic scenarios, with no constraints imposed by future water supplies. The scenarios observe increases in global water withdrawals from 3710km<SUP>3</SUP>year<SUP>-1</SUP> in 2005 to 6195-8690km<SUP>3</SUP>year<SUP>-1</SUP> in 2050, and to 4869-12,693km<SUP>3</SUP>year<SUP>-1</SUP> in 2095. Comparing the projected total regional water withdrawals to the historical supply of renewable freshwater, the Middle East exhibits the highest levels of water scarcity throughout the century, followed by India; water scarcity increases over time in both of these regions. In contrast, water scarcity improves in some regions with large base-year electric sector withdrawals, such as the USA and Canada, due to capital stock turnover and the almost complete phase-out of once-through flow cooling systems. The scenarios indicate that: 1) water is likely a limiting factor in meeting future water demands, 2) many regions can be expected to increase reliance on non-renewable groundwater, water reuse, and desalinated water, but they also highlight an important role for development and deployment of water conservation technologies and practices.

Misrepresentation of the IPCC CO2 emission scenarios

Manning, M. R.,Edmonds, J.,Emori, S.,Grubler, A.,Hibbard, K.,Joos, F.,Kainuma, M.,Keeling, R. F.,Kram, T.,Manning, A. C.,Meinshausen, M.,Moss, R.,Nakicenovic, N.,Riahi, K.,Rose, S. K.,Smith, S.,Swart, Springer Science and Business Media LLC 2010 Nature geoscience Vol.3 No.6

Structure and properties of GPTMS/DETA and GPTMS/EDA hybrid polymers

M.R. Gizdavic-Nikolaidis,N.R. Edmonds,C.J. Bolt,A.J. Easteal 한국물리학회 2008 Current Applied Physics Vol.8 No.3,4

Silica/epoxy hybrid polymers were synthesised from 3-glycidoxypropyltrimethoxysilane (GPTMS) by hydrolysis of the silane func-tional groups in strongly acidic (pH 2) or basic (pH 10) conditions, followed by epoxy ring opening and crosslinking using diethylaminetriamine (DETA) and ethylene diamine (EDA). Structural characterization of the hybrid polymers was performed using FTIR spectros-copy. The thermal properties of GPTMS/DETA and GPTMS/EDA hybrid polymers were investigated by dierential scanning calorim-inuence of pH on the structure and properties of the synthesised GPTMS/DETA and GPTMS/EDA hybrids is discussed

The SSP4: A world of deepening inequality

Calvin, Katherine,Bond-Lamberty, Ben,Clarke, Leon,Edmonds, James,Eom, Jiyong,Hartin, Corinne,Kim, Sonny,Kyle, Page,Link, Robert,Moss, Richard,McJeon, Haewon,Patel, Pralit,Smith, Steve,Waldhoff, Stepha Elsevier 2017 Global environmental change Vol.42 No.-

<P><B>Abstract</B></P> <P>Five new scenarios, or Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), have been developed, spanning a range of challenges to mitigation and challenges to adaptation. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 4 (SSP4), “Inequality” or “A Road Divided,” is one of these scenarios, characterized by low challenges to mitigation and high challenges to adaptation. We describe, in quantitative terms, the SSP4 as implemented by the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), the marker model for this scenario. We use demographic and economic assumptions, in combination with technology and non-climate policy assumptions to develop a quantitative representation of energy, land-use and land-cover, and emissions consistent with the SSP4 narrative. The scenario is one with stark differences within and across regions. High-income regions prosper, continuing to increase their demand for energy and food. Electrification increases in these regions, with the increased generation being met by nuclear and renewables. Low-income regions, however, stagnate due to limited economic growth. Growth in total consumption is dominated by increases in population, not increases in per capita consumption. Due to failures in energy access policies, these regions continue to depend on traditional biofuels, leading to high pollutant emissions. Declining dependence on fossil fuels in all regions means that total radiative forcing absent the inclusion of mitigation or impacts only reaches 6.4Wm<SUP>−2</SUP> in 2100, making this a world with relatively low challenges to mitigation. We explore the effects of mitigation effort on the SSP4 world, finding that the imposition of a carbon price has a varied effect across regions. In particular, the SSP4 mitigation scenarios are characterized by afforestation in the high-income regions and deforestation in the low-income regions. Furthermore, we find that the SSP4 is a world with low challenges to mitigation, but only to a point due to incomplete mitigation of land-related emissions.</P> <P><B>Highlights</B></P> <P> <UL> <LI> Describes the quantification of the SSP4 storyline by the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), the marker model for the SSP4. </LI> <LI> Examines the implications of the SSP4 world on energy, land, emissions, and climate, with and without efforts to mitigate. </LI> <LI> Compares the GCAM SSP4 to other scenarios. </LI> </UL> </P>

In vitro and Mechanism Study of Poly(ethylene-co-vinyl acetate)-Based Implant for Sustained Release of Vitamin B12

Chi Zhang,Allan J. Easteal,Neil R. Edmonds,Genhai Liang,Majid Razzak,Wayne Leech 한국고분자학회 2010 Macromolecular Research Vol.18 No.7

A polymer-vitamin B12 implant system has been developed to overcome the disadvantages of traditional vitamin B12 administration to sheep. The ethylene/vinyl acetate (EVAc) copolymer was pre-blended with crystalline vitamin B12. The blends were then extruded at 100 ºC at a constant pressure and rate using a piston extruder to form a polymer-vitamin B12 composite cord. The final implant was a cylinder 2 mm in diameter and 4 mm in length. Determination of the rate of vitamin B12 release from the implant into a pH7.4 phosphate buffer at 37 oC showed that the release rate was strongly dependent on the feed concentration, size and shape of vitamin B12 crystals. The well-known Korsmeyer-Peppas exponential equation was applied to and the release mechanism was found to be a typical anomalous transport mechanism with a strong diffusion-controlled feature between pure diffusion-controlled and Case-II transport mechanisms because the n values obtained were between 0.45 and 0.51 for most polymer-vitamin B12 cylindrical implant systems.

Selective Chemical Response of Transition Metal Dichalcogenides and Metal Dichalcogenides in Ambient Conditions

Park, Jun Hong,Vishwanath, Suresh,Wolf, Steven,Zhang, Kehao,Kwak, Iljo,Edmonds, Mary,Breeden, Michael,Liu, Xinyu,Dobrowolska, Margaret,Furdyna, Jacek,Robinson, Joshua A.,Xing, Huili Grace,Kummel, Andr American Chemical Society 2017 ACS APPLIED MATERIALS & INTERFACES Vol.9 No.34

<P>To fabricate practical devices based on semiconducting two-dimensional (2D) materials, the source, channel, and drain materials are exposed to ambient air. However, the response of layered 2D materials to air has not been fully elucidated at the molecular level. In the present report, the effects of air exposure on transition metal dichalcogenides (TMD) and metal dichalcogenides (MD) are studied using ultrahigh-vacuum scanning tunneling microscopy (STM). The effects of a 1-day ambient air exposure on MBE-grown WSe2, chemical vapor deposition (CVD)-grown MoS2, and MBE SnSe2 are compared. Both MBE grown WSe2 and CVD-grown MoS2 display a selective air exposure response at the step edges, consistent with oxidation on WSe2 and adsorption of hydrocarbon on MoS2, while the terraces and domain/grain boundaries of both TMDs are nearly inert to ambient air. Conversely, MBE-grown SnSe2, an MD, is not stable in ambient air. After exposure in ambient air for 1 day, the entire surface of SnSe2 is decomposed to SnOx and SeOx as seen with X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy. Since the oxidation enthalpy of all three materials is similar, the data is consistent with greater oxidation of SnSe2 being driven by the weak bonding of SnSe2.</P>

Campylobacter Infectioin Associated With Raw Milk : An Outbreak of Gastroenteritis due to Campylobacter jejuni and Thermotolerant Campylobacter fetus subsp fetus

Klein, Bruce S.,Vergeront, James M.,Blaser, Martin J.,Edmonds, Paul,Brenner, Don J.,Janssen, David,Davis, Jeffrey P. MediMedia Korea 1986 JAMA-Korea Vol.1 No.9

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview

Riahi, Keywan,van Vuuren, Detlef P.,Kriegler, Elmar,Edmonds, Jae,O’Neill, Brian C.,Fujimori, Shinichiro,Bauer, Nico,Calvin, Katherine,Dellink, Rob,Fricko, Oliver,Lutz, Wolfgang,Popp, Alexander,Cuaresm Elsevier 2017 Global environmental change Vol.42 No.-

<P><B>Abstract</B></P> <P>This paper presents the overview of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their energy, land use, and emissions implications. The SSPs are part of a new scenario framework, established by the climate change research community in order to facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The pathways were developed over the last years as a joint community effort and describe plausible major global developments that together would lead in the future to different challenges for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. The SSPs are based on five narratives describing alternative socio-economic developments, including sustainable development, regional rivalry, inequality, fossil-fueled development, and middle-of-the-road development. The long-term demographic and economic projections of the SSPs depict a wide uncertainty range consistent with the scenario literature. A multi-model approach was used for the elaboration of the energy, land-use and the emissions trajectories of SSP-based scenarios. The baseline scenarios lead to global energy consumption of 400–1200 EJ in 2100, and feature vastly different land-use dynamics, ranging from a possible reduction in cropland area up to a massive expansion by more than 700 million hectares by 2100. The associated annual CO<SUB>2</SUB> emissions of the baseline scenarios range from about 25 GtCO<SUB>2</SUB> to more than 120 GtCO<SUB>2</SUB> per year by 2100. With respect to mitigation, we find that associated costs strongly depend on three factors: (1) the policy assumptions, (2) the socio-economic narrative, and (3) the stringency of the target. The carbon price for reaching the target of 2.6W/m<SUP>2</SUP> that is consistent with a temperature change limit of 2°C, differs in our analysis thus by about a factor of three across the SSP marker scenarios. Moreover, many models could not reach this target from the SSPs with high mitigation challenges. While the SSPs were designed to represent different mitigation and adaptation challenges, the resulting narratives and quantifications span a wide range of different futures broadly representative of the current literature. This allows their subsequent use and development in new assessments and research projects. Critical next steps for the community scenario process will, among others, involve regional and sectoral extensions, further elaboration of the adaptation and impacts dimension, as well as employing the SSP scenarios with the new generation of earth system models as part of the 6th climate model intercomparison project (CMIP6).</P> <P><B>Highlights</B></P> <P> <UL> <LI> We present an overview of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which were developed as a community effort over the last years. </LI> <LI> The SSPs comprise five narratives and a set of driving forces. </LI> <LI> Our SSP scenarios quantify energy and land-use developments and associated uncertainties for greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions. </LI> <LI> We conduct an SSP mitigation analysis, and estimate mitigation costs. We find that very low climate targets might be out of reach in SSPs featuring high challenges. </LI> <LI> The SSPs are now ready for use by the climate change research community. </LI> </UL> </P>

Prospecting for Insect Pheromones in Indonesia: Finds, Failures and the Future

Angerilli, N.P.D.,Permana, A.D.,Sasaerila, Y.,Hallett, R.,Zilahi-Balogh, R.,Edmonds, R. Korean Society of Applied Entomology 1998 Journal of Asia-Pacific Entomology Vol.1 No.1

The isolation, identification and application of pheromones in agriculture and forestry in Indonesia is beginning and is of increasing importance in the official government strategy of pest management. As the fourth most populous country in the world, home to some of the largest remaining tropical rainforests and undergoing rapid industrualization, there are a variety of powerful reasons for Indonesia to continue to develop and implement IPM prograns that are effective, readily available and user-friendly. Many IPM programs will be benefited from the inclusion of a pheromone-based component. Several recent pheromone research projects, undertaken in Indonesia to identify and develop pheromones as tools in IPM programs, were examined. These include diamondback moth(Plutella xylostella(L.)); soybean pod borer(Etiella zinckenella Trietschke and E. hobsoni Butler); sugar cane top borer(Scirpophaga nivella F.); and some coleopteran and other pests of palm(Oryctes rhinoceros(L.), Rhynchophorus ferrugineus(Olivier), R. vulneratus(Panzer) and Setothosea asigna(vE)). The nature of the pheromone was discussed in each case and how the pheromone information can be of assistance in IPM programs involving these insect pests was reviewed. Some obstacles to pheromone research as well as some of the limitations to the inclusion the influence of difficulties in communication and access to information, bureaucracy and the acquisition of equipment and supplies are not uncommon. Further, communication of research results as well as the general level of capitalization of agricultural effort in addition to grower sociocultural factors can be problematic. However there are a large number of opportunities for productive pheromone research and we present an active 'hot' list of target insect/crop combinations which are likely to prove rewarding. Facilitation of a continuous indigenous research effort involv-ing pheromones is being achieved through the development and strengthening of a Pheromone and Semiochemical Research Group centered at the Bandung Institute of Technology.