Impacts and Countermeasures of Climate Change on Food Supply

Kim Chang-gil,Jeong Hak-kyun,Han Suk-ho,Kim Jeong-seung,Moon Dong-hyun 한국농촌경제연구원 2013 한국농촌경제연구원 기본연구보고서 Vol.- No.-

Climate change has become a megatrend that will lead to significant changes in future society. Korean and overseas agencies specializing in climate forecasts predict that average global temperatures will continue to rise. While climate change may potentially have certain positive impacts for crop yields, the overall impact is predicted to be negative for environment and food security. In this context, our study aims to suggest a plan for systematically establishing a stable food supply system in Korea in respose to climate change. Various analytical models were employed, including: a response analysis based on questionnaire for farmers, panel-based analysis of the causes of pests and diseases in rice production, a random-effects model for panel data of extreme weather impact, and an analysis of food supply effects using the Simulation Model for Climate-Agriculture Relations (SIMCAR) integrated model in conjunction with the Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis (CERES) model of the Korea Agricultural Simulation Model (KASMO). An analysis was made of major grain yields by means of the KREI-KASMO. This revealed reduced yields and area in comparison with the baseline in 2050, resulting in a reduction of rice production by 17.8%p in the RCP8.5 scenario, and reduction of soybean by 21.2%p and reduction of barley by 13.7%p in the A2 scenario. Self-sufficiency ratio of major grains in 2050 drawn from the SIMCAR revealed that the climate change scenario for rice showed 55.0% to be reduced by 18.3% in comparison with the baseline. It is predicted that selfsufficiency ratio in rice will drop to 50% which means a half of consumed rice should be imported. Key tasks for building a stable food supply system to cope with climate change were developed based on the domestic production capacity, the buffering capacity to climate change, import capacity from other countries, and policy performance capacity with reference to the empirical analysis. First, the suggested key tasks for improving the domestic production capacity include developing and disseminating adaptation technology, conserving farmland and expanding arable land, practicing climate-smart agriculture by using fusion technology, and modernizing infrastructure for agriculture. Second, key tasks for improving buffering capacity to climate change are improving resilience and biodiversity, building a risk management system, and further improving storage of food in Korea and other countries. Third, major tasks for improving the import capacity from other countries are constructing overseas food bases, effectively using the international grain market, and enhancing international cooperation with relevant countries. Finally, key tasks for improving policy performance capacity are refining and applying the climate change impact analysis model with respect to policies, expanding investments in research and development, building a vulnerability assessment system, enhancing education and training, and installing Climate Change Response Center for Agriculture (tentative). In this study, several key challenges were presented in the four different areas related to building a stable food supply system which can help overcome the challenges of climate change. It is expected that the nature of the policies that need to be prioritized and promoted, given the constraints of budget, organization and information will be addressed in future research. Also, in order for the solutions for key challenges to work properly in the field such that policy outcomes will be maximized, a consortium of research bodies in the related fields of agriculture, agricultural meteorology and agricultural economics should be created. As preparation for specific action programs. Furthermore, follow-up studies should be conducted to verify the expenses required for developing reliable climate change impact assessment models and the effectiveness of the enforced policies. Such fie

Brain SPECT 영상의 Attenuation Correction 방법들에 대한 비교

조진우,김창호,나수경,이귀원,Jo, Jin U,Kim, Chang Ho,Na, Soo Kyung,Lee, Gui Won 대한핵의학기술학회 2012 핵의학 기술 Vol.16 No.2

이 연구의 목적은 Brain SPECT (Single Photon Emission Computed Tomography)의 Non-attenuation correction (AC-non) 영상에 대한 attenuation correction(AC) 방법 중 Chang's method와 CT based attenuation correction(AC-CT) 사이의 count를 비교하기 위함이다. phantom study는 증류수로 채워진 hoffman 3D phantom에 $^{99m}Tc$ 37Mbq을 투여하였고, patient study는 normal volunteer에 $^{99m}Tc$-HMPAO 750Mbq를 정맥주입하고 Siemens사의 Symbia T6로 Brain SPECT 영상을 획득하였고 뇌 정량 분석을 하였다. 각각의 방법들을 적용한 transverse image는 같은 위치에서 재구성 되었으며 각각 10, 20, 30번째 slice에서 6개의 region of interest(ROI)를 그려 AC-non 과 AC-CT 그리고 Chang's method의 count를 비교하였다. phantom study에서 AC-non, AC-CT, Chang's method의 각각 평균 count는 $4606.8{\pm}511.3$, $16794.6{\pm}2429.4$, $8752.6{\pm}896.5$이었으며 patient study에서 $5460.8{\pm}519.6$, $15320{\pm}1171.6$, $12795{\pm}1422.1$이었다. phantom study에서 AC-CT와 AC-non 사이의 비는 3.70이고 Chang's method와 AC-non 사이의 비는 1.92였으며 patient study에서는 각각 2.85, 2.38이었다. 우리는 이 연구를 통하여 AC-CT가 Chang's method보다 더 높은 AC을 해준다는 걸 알 수 있었다. 그리고 Chang's method는 patient study에서의 AC 값이 phantom study에서의 AC값보다 더 높다는 것을 알 수 있었다. brain SPECT/CT를 시행하는 경우 scatter correction을 같이 시행하고 bone에 의한 감쇠 정보를 반영할 수 있는 AC-CT가 chang's method보다 정확하다 할 수 있겠다. Purpose : The purpose of this study was to compare count between Chang's method and CT-based attenuation correction (AC-CT) among the attenuation correction (AC) methods for non-attenuation correction (AC-non) images of Brain SPECT (Single Photon Emission Computed Tomography). Materials and Methods : We injected $^{99m}Tc$ 37Mbq in a Hoffman 3D phantom filled with distilled water in the phantom study, and injected intravenously $^{99m}Tc$-HMPAO 740Mbq in a normal volunteer in the patient study, and then obtained Brain SPECT images with Symbia T6 of Siemens and conducted quantitative brain analysis. Transverse images to which each method was applied were rebuilt at the same position, and 6 regions of interest (ROI) were drawn on each of Slice No. 10, 20 and 30 and then the counts of AC-non, AC-CT and Chang's method were compared. Results : The mean counts of AC-non, AC-CT and Chang's method were $4606.8{\pm}511.3$, $16794.6{\pm}2429.4$, and $8752.6{\pm}896.5$, respectively, in the phantom study and $5460.8{\pm}519.6$, $15320{\pm}1171.6$ and $12795{\pm}1422.1$, respectively, in the patient study. In the phantom study, the ratio of AC-CT to AC-non was 3.70 and the ratio of Chang's method to AC-non was 1.92, and in the patient study, they were 2.85 and 2.38, respectively. Conclusion : From this study, we found that AC-CT makes higher AC than Chang's method. In addition, when Chang's method was used, AC in the patient study was higher than that in the phantom study. These results need to be considered also in other examinations.

Projections of summertime ozone concentration over East Asia under multiple IPCC SRES emission scenarios

Lee, Jae-Bum,Cha, Jun-Seok,Hong, Sung-Chul,Choi, Jin-Young,Myoung, Ji-Su,Park, Rokjin J.,Woo, Jung-Hun,Ho, Changhoi,Han, Jin-Seok,Song, Chang-Keun Elsevier 2015 Atmospheric environment Vol.106 No.-

<P><B>Abstract</B></P> <P>We have developed the Integrated Climate and Air Quality Modeling System (ICAMS) through the one-way nesting of global–regional models to examine the changes in the surface ozone concentrations over East Asia under future climate scenarios. Model simulations have been conducted for the present period of 1996–2005 to evaluate the performance of ICAMS. The simulated surface ozone concentrations reproduced the observed monthly mean concentrations at sites in East Asia with high R<SUP>2</SUP> values (0.4–0.9), indicating a successful simulation to capture both spatial and temporal variability. We then performed several model simulations with the six IPCC SRES scenarios (A2, A1B, A1FI, A1T, B1, and B2) for the next three periods, 2016–2025 (the 2020s), 2046–2055 (the 2050s), and 2091–2100 (the 2090s). The model results show that the projected changes of the annual daily mean maximum eight-hour (DM8H) surface ozone concentrations in summertime for East Asia are in the range of 2–8 ppb, −3 to 8 ppb, and −7 to 9 ppb for the 2020s, the 2050s, and the 2090s, respectively, and are primarily determined based on the emission changes of NO<SUB>x</SUB> and NMVOC. The maximum increases in the annual DM8H surface ozone and high-ozone events occur in the 2020s for all scenarios except for A2, implying that the air quality over East Asia is likely to get worse in the near future period (the 2020s) than in the far future periods (the 2050s and the 2090s). The changes in the future environment based on IPCC SRES scenarios would also influence the change in the occurrences of high-concentrations events more greatly than that of the annual DM8H surface ozone concentrations. Sensitivity simulations show that the emissions increase is the key factor in determining future regional surface ozone concentrations in the case of a developing country, China, whereas a developed country, Japan would be influenced more greatly by effects of the regional climate change than the increase in emissions.</P> <P><B>Highlights</B></P> <P> <UL> <LI> Change in ozone level is determined by the combination of NO<SUB>x</SUB> and NMVOC emissions. </LI> <LI> Ozone level over East Asia would get worse in the near future (the 2020s) than far future. </LI> <LI> A high-concentration event generally increases and more frequently occurs in the future. </LI> <LI> Change in ozone air quality in a developing country depends more on emissions change. </LI> <LI> Change in ozone air quality in a developed country depends more on climate change. </LI> </UL> </P>

기후변화에 대비한 온실가스 배출권 거래제도 도입 동향과 정책적 시사점

장근호(Chang Geun-Ho) 한국조세연구포럼 2009 조세연구 Vol.9 No.2

지구 온난화를 완화하기 위한 기후변화협상이 2009년 12월 타결을 목표로 현재 진행되고 있다. 특히 미국과 유럽연합 등 선진국은 기후변화협상을 계기로 녹색성장전략을 통하여 근본적언 경제사회체제 개혁을 추구하고 있다. 이와 같은 움직임은 에너지절약과 환경개선은 물론 국제 경제구조와 통상질서를 획기적으로 전환하는 시발점이 될 수 있다. 이에 본고에서는 기후변화협상 동향을 살펴보고 기후 변화 대응체계에서 핵심이 되는 온실가스 배출권 거래제도를 검토한다. 특히 주요국 배출권 제도를 비교 분석하고 탄소관세 등 국경세 조정에 대한 문제점을 논의 한다. 이를 통하여 우리나라 온실가스 대책의 문제점을 지적하고 협상방향을 제시하며 배출권 거래제도 도입에 대비한 정책적 시사점을 모색하고자 한다. The Post Kyoto climate change negotiation to mitigate global warming was launched with the aiming of concluding by December 2009. Apart from the climate change negotiations, many developed countries including the United States and European Union are seeking fundamental social economic changes through various green growth strategies. This may be a major turning point for global economic structure and trade order as well as energy conservation and environmental improvement. This paper reviews ongoing climate change negotiations and studies emission trading scheme which has become an integral instrument for action against climate change. Especially, the paper engages in comparative analysis of emission trading schemes of major developed countries and discusses problems associated with border tax adjustment such as carbon tariff. Through such exercises, we hope to gain some insight for the implementation of emission trading scheme, to develop the direction for upcoming climate change negotiation and to criticize our policy response toward global warming.

만성 두부외상 환자에서 99mTc - HMPAO Brain SPECT의 임상적 유용성

서정호(Jung Ho Suh),김동익(Dong Ik Kim),정태섭(Tae Sub Chung),이종두(Jong Doo Lee),박창윤(Chang Yoon Park),정진일(Jin Ill Chung),김영수(Young Soo Kim) 대한핵의학회 1992 핵의학 분자영상 Vol.26 No.1

N/A Minima1 deterioration of cerebral perfusion or microanatomical changes were undetectable on conventional Brain CT or MRI. So evaluation of focal functional changes of the brain parenchyme is essential in chronic head injury patients, who did not show focal anatomical changes on these radiological studies. However, the patients who had longstanding neurologic sequelae following head injury, there had been no available imaging modalities for evaluating these patients precisely. Therefore we tried to detect the focal functional changes on the brain parenchyme using Tc-99m-HMPAO Brain SPECT on the patients of chronic head injuries. Twenty three patients who had suffered from headache, memory dysfunction, personality change and insomnia lasting more than six months following head injury were included in our cases, which showed no anatomical abnormalities on Brain CT or MRI. At first they underwent psychological test whether the symptoms were organic or not. Also we were able to evaluate the cerebral perfusion changes with Tc-99m-HMPAO Brain SPECT in 22 patients among the 23, which five patients were focal and 17 patients were nonfocally diffuse perfusion changes. Thus we can predict the perfusion changes such as local vascular deterioration or functional defects using Tc-99m-HMPAO Brain SPECT in the patients who had suffered from post-traumatic sequelae, which changes were undetectable on Brain CT or MRI.

회계이익변경에 대한 단순투자자의 반응

김지홍 ( Jee Hong Kim ),장진호 ( Jin Ho Chang ),여은정 ( Eun Jung Yeo ) 한국회계학회 2004 會計學硏究 Vol.29 No.3

본 연구는 1998년 초부터 2003년 6월말까지 증권거래소의 전자공시시스템에 회계변경을 공시한 상장기업을 표본으로 하여, 단순투자자의 비율이 높은 기업에서의 회계이익변경에 대한 주가반응을 살펴보았다. 연구 결과, 단순투자자(naive investor)의 대용치로 사용된 개인소액투자자의 지분이 높은 기업에서 회계변경으로 인한 보고이익의 증가가 높을수록 양(+)의 주가반응이 존재함을 발견하였다. 이 결과는 실증회계이론에서 제시한 보고이익의 증가가 계약비용을 감소시키는 효과를 통제한 후에도 유의하였다. 반면, 전문투자자(sophisticated investor)의 대용치로 사용된 기관투자자 및 외국인투자자의 지분이 높은 기업에서는 회계변경으로 인한 이익증가에 유의적인 시장반응이 관찰되지 않았다. 본 연구의 결과는 한계투자자의 전문성에 따라 회계정보에 대한 주가반응이 상이할 수 있다는 확장된 기능적 고착가설(extended functional fixation hypothesis)을 지지하는 결과이다. This study empirically examines whether there is price reaction of the accounting changing companies which have high rate of unsophisticated investors` holdings. That is, this study will analyze whether there is different response to reported earnings changes by accounting change between unsophisticated and sophisticated investors. Most significantly, this study observes the cumulative abnormal returns on the time of disclosing to the accounting change. The final sample consists of 96 listed on the Korean Stock Exchange and disclosed by an Electronic Disclosure System over the period of 1998 to June, 2003. The results of this study are summarized as follows. First, there is positive relation between price reaction of individual investors proxied by naive investors and the reported earnings by accounting changes. This means that unsophisticated investors react naively on the increase of earnings by accounting changes. Second, there is no positive relation between the price reaction of institutional or foreign investors proxied by sophisticated investors and the increasing earnings by accounting changes. This means that sophisticated investors don`t react naively in the increase of earnings by accounting changes. These results supports the extended functional fixation hypothesis that price reactions of the accounting information can be varied according to the marginal investor`s expertise.

허혈기간에 따른 심근세포와 세포간질의 미세구조적 변화에 관한 연구

김호덕,라봉진,장충현 대한해부학회 1992 Anatomy & Cell Biology Vol.25 No.1

T.Parsons의 社會變動論에 대한 視角과 그 理論的 考察

張晙昊 西原大學校 1979 西原大學 論文集 Vol.8 No.-

The purpose in writing this paper has been to accomplish three objectives; 1) to answer the question, what is T. Parsons' fundamental way of thinking of social change? 2) to describe the major aspects of the T. Parsons' theoretical perspective and 3) to present and examine his theory. In line with these objectives, this paper is organized into three sections. In chapterⅠ, I have stated the scope and range to analyze T. Parsons' works. Chapter Ⅱ describes and analyzes what I conceive to be the most important theoretical perspective of Social Change theory in T. Parsons' works as follows; 1. Social Change and Social System 2. Social Change and Institutional Change 3. Social Change and Structural & Value System Change 4. Social Change and Evolutionary Change In chapter Ⅲ, I have incorporated a comprehensive understanding of Parsons' theoretical perspective of social change.

고려말 조선시대 암막새의 변천과정

서창호(Seo Chang Ho) 중부고고학회 2010 고고학 Vol.9 No.1

암막새는 고려말 조선시대로 들어오면서 그 이전과 비교하여 衷面 布目痕의 등장, 평면형태와 막새면의 意匠표현 등 많은 변화가 이루어진다. 한국 와전사에 있어 이렇게 많은 변화가 보인 적은 없었다. 衷面에 布目痕이 확인되는 암막새들 중 평면형태, 문양과 문자의 意匠표현 등을 주속성으로 하여 유적 내에서 속성의 관찰이 가능한 암막세에 적용시켜 형식 분류를 시도하였다. Ⅰ단계는 고려말인 14세기 전반에서 15세기 후반으로 衷面에 布目痕이 있다는 것을 제외하고는 이전 시기에 비해 평면형태와 문양 등에 있어 큰 차이를 보이지 않았다. II 단계는 15세기 후반에서 16세기 후반으로 굴곡이 1회 또는 2회의 역삼각형태이고, 중앙문자구확대가 확인된다. III단계는 15세기 후반에서 17세기 후반으로 평면형태는 굴곡이 2회 이상의 역삼각형이며 연주문이 사라지고, 문자배치는 C, D식으로 막새면의 意匠이 본격적으로 문양에서 문자중심으로 변화되고 있다 IV단계는 16세기 후반부터 19세기 전반까지로 막새면 의 全面에 등간격의 문자구확대를 배치하여 문자위주의 意匠이 표현되고, 문자배치에 있어 정형성을 보인다. 이러한 변화의 원인을 먼저 고려말 원 간섭기에 유입된 원식 암막새에서 찾아보았는데 Ⅰ단계의 衷面 布目痕 막새의 제 작기법과 원식암막새의 속성이 결합하여 II 단계부터는 본격적인 변화가 진행되는 것을 알 수 있다. 막새 衷面에 布目痕이 있는 암막새는 막새와 평가와의 각도를 일정하게 맞춘 받침과 거치대를 사용하였기 때문에 동일한 접합기법 및 접합각도로 제작이 가능하다. 이는 접할 시 막새와 평가와의 조정 및 보강이 생략됨으로 공정의 축소화와 규격화를 위한 기술의 발전으로 설명할 수 있다. 16세기를 전후로 암막새의 장식이 문양에서 문자로 변화되면서 문자가 막새면의 全面에 걸쳐 자리 잡기 시작하는데 그 요인에 대해 당시 억불정책의 영향에 따른 사원경제사적인 측면에서 접근해보았다. 이 시기 암막새의 문자에는 대부분 시주, 화주, 인명, 관직명 등의 내용이 포함되어 있다. 암막새는 지붕의 정면을 장식하는 시각적 효과가 있어 막새면에 시주자의 이름을 새기게 되고, 시주자는 신앙적 효과를 제공받게 된다. 시주자의 대부분은 관인사대부나 지방의 유력자로서 국가의 지원 없이도 시원경제가 지속되는데 있어 경제적인 도움을 제공하였을 것이다. 또한 제와수공입적인 측면으로 볼 때 시주가 목적인 주문자(민간, 관인시대부)의 요구를 받아 암막새애 인명 등의 시주내용을 全面에 새겨 넣는 것은 별와요로 대표되는 관설제와장이 16세기를 전후로 시설제와 장으로 변질되고 있음을 말해주는 고고학적 증거라고 생각된다. Compared to the flat roof-end tiles of the previous period, those of the late Goryeo to Joseon Dynasty illustrate significant changes in terms of manufacturing technique, shape and decoration. These are thought to be important changes that can help establish chronology when researching flat roof-end tiles. However, Korean researchers have only considered the material in a fragmentary manner and have lacked a diachronic approach to change. However, the flat roof-end tiles of the late Goryeo to joseon Dynasty were reconsidered by Japanese researchers, which suggests the need to carry out a similar endeavor within Korea. Accordingly, focusing on those which have yielded traces of linen and cotton, this study examines the changing nature of the shape (in cross-section) and decoration of flat roof-end tiles. The results of the study suggest that flat roof-end tiles can be divided into 6 types which changed over 4 stages. These changes appear to have been influenced by the flat roof-end tiles of the Yuan dynasty which have been excavated within the Korean peninsula. The flat roof-end tiles of the Goryeo Dynasty began to be influenced by the flat roof-end tiles of the Yuan dynasty in Stage 1, and this generated the changes which can be observed from Stage 2. Finally, the presence of linen and cotton traces on the backs of the flat roof-end tiles was considered. Tiles without linen and cotton traces required adjusting and reinforcing when joined with plain roof-tiles. However, those with linen and cotton traces were manufactured using a rest which matched the angle between the flat roof-end tiles and the plain roof-tiles, and so such tiles could be joined according to a similar technique and angle. Therefore, the presence of linen and cotton traces can be taken to indicate standardization in manufacturing technique, and consequently development in mass production technology.

Heme oxygenase-1 mediated protective effect of methyl gallate on cadmium-induced cytotoxicity in cultured mouse mesangial cells

Cha, Seok-Ho,Suh, Chang-Kook The Korean Society of Toxicogenomics and Toxicopro 2010 Molecular & cellular toxicology Vol.6 No.2

To clarify the effect of a phytochemical, methyl gallate (MG) on a heavy metal (cadmium)-induced renal toxicity, cytotoxicity and the change of heme oxygenase-1 (HO-1) gene expression was studied using cultured mouse renal glomerular mesangial cells (MMC). By employing RT-PCR and Western blotting analysis, we have examined the HO-1 induction in MMCs that were treated with $Cd^{2+}$ and/or MG. Using MTT assay we have also examined the cytoprotective effect of HO-1 induction against the cytotoxicity caused by toxic dose of $Cd^{2+}$. In MMCs exposed to $Cd^{2+}$ and MG, expression of HO-1 (mRNA and protein) was increased in a concentration- and time-dependent manner. The increments of HO-1 mRNA and protein expressions by $Cd^{2+}$ and MG were inhibited by the treatment of the cells with actinomycin D, an inhibitor of transcription. The decreased viability of the cells by $Cd^{2+}$ was partially recovered by the treatment of MG and this recovery by the MG was reduced by the treatment of zinc protoporphyrin IX (a HO-1 inhibitor). From these results, methyl gallate might have cytoprotective effect on $Cd^{2+}$-induced cytotoxicity that is related with heme oxygenase-1 induction.