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Deeper Integration or Open Regionalism in the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA): A CGE Approach
Abdallah Akintola(Abdallah Akintola ),Houcine Boughanmi(Houcine Boughanmi ),Alessandro Antimiani(Alessandro Antimiani ),Lokman Zaibet(Lokman Zaibet ),Hemesiri Kotagama(Hemesiri Kotagama ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 2022 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.37 No.4
The Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) is a regional association based on the principle of open regionalism to promote liberalization through trade and investment facilitation. This study compares two main scenarios with the ingredients of a deeper regional integration compared to the IORA's present open regionalism status. Scenario I evaluates the effects of gradual tariff cuts on IORA, while Scenario II combines the impact of tariff cuts, non-tariff measures (NTM) reduction, and trade facilitation. A recent recursive dynamic model, called Global Trade Analysis Project recursive dynamic model (GTAP-RD), was used to understand the adjustment path. The result shows welfare gain for a ll IORA countries when a t rade liberalization involving tariff cuts is complemented with NTM reduction and trade facilitation. In addition, the “NTM spillover” effect on some non-IORA members (the rest of Gulf Cooperation Council, the rest of Greater Arab Free Trade Agreement, and the United Kingdom) was observed. The results suggest that IORA has more to gain if it involves a deeper regional integration than the present form of open regionalism.
Deeper Integration or Wider Integration?: the case of Gulf Cooperation Council
( Houcine Boughanmi ),( Ahmed Al-shammakhi ),( Alessandro Antimiani ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 2016 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.31 No.2
We empirically evaluate whether fostering trade partnership within the region is a better economic course of action for the Gulf Cooperation Council than engaging into preferential trade arrangements with well-established trade blocs outside the region. We use the 8.1 version of Global Trade Analysis Project to analyze four scenarios representing various Gulf Cooperation Council trade integration paths, taking into consideration the issue of non-Tariff Barriers and trade facilitation measures. Results indicate that the Gulf Cooperation Council gain from lifting tariffs and non-tariff barriers on trade with the Greater Arab Free Trade Area subgroups and with the European Union is limited unless such barrier lifting is complemented with trade facilitation measures. With trade facilitation, the full completion of Greater Arab Free Trade Area scenario yields the highest welfare gain for the Gulf Cooperation Council, while the Gulf Cooperation Council-European Union Free Trade Agreement scenario yields positive but smaller gain. The small gain with Gulf Cooperation Council-European Union scenario is explained by the negative terms of trade effects following trade liberalization. These results underscore the importance of deepening Greater Arab Free Trade Area’s scope through introduction of trade facilitation measures as well as measures beyond merchandize trade liberalization.