空路輸送性能變數의 解析硏究

柳光井 한국항공대학교 1979 論文集 Vol.15 No.-

航路性能의 解析을 運航에 所要되는 費用과 運航에서 發生한 生産量의 比較에 근거하여야 한다. 그러나 費用資料의 未備로 硏究의 초점을 航空의 效果增大에 두고 特定路線에 妥當한 機種選定에 考慮되어야 할 요소를 整理하고 市場機能 適應하는 運航性能으로 改善되기 위한 方案을 檢討하였다. 航空機의 稼動時間延長으로 얻을 수 있는 利點이 運行回收를 增加할 수 있고, 그로 인하여 供給量의 調整이 可能함을 發見하였으며, 결과적으로 航空運送性能의 정규성과 안전성을 확보할 수 있다고 인식되었다. The economic output of transport systems is related to not only average available seats per flight, but also daily operating frequencies. The increasing operating frequency for a given aircraft on a specific short-haul route is the important variable of the performance function at the air transportation market. This variable has two functions, the one makes high regularity and stability the air transport network. the other offers high certainty to get air plane as passengers want to travel by air. Finally, and most important for this study, these two variables are affected significantly by aircraft utilization. The long operating hour is performance of the systems. Since the high utilization tend to be used on the domestic routes, this reinforces the effect of the flight frequency.

航空機安全節次와 安全機器의 改善에 對한 考察

柳光井 한국항공대학교 1974 論文集 Vol.7 No.-

航空機事故에 關聯있는 人命과 財産의 救出 및 保護는 事故處理의 共同目標이며 가장 重要한 使命이다. 그러나 이 救助活動의 失施는 事故에 곁들여 致命的인 有害要素인 火災와 有毒개스의 發生으로 因하여 極히 制限된 짧은 時間內에 이루어지지 않으면 안된다. 이 制限된 時間이 어떻게 求助處理에 李用되어야 할 것인지, 그리고 航空機의 構造, 內外構造物의 材料와 客室內 設備에 關하여 事故處理者觀點에 依한 考察로서 事故處理活動을 할 수 있는 時間의 延長可能性을 考慮하고 事故의 多樣性에 비추어 安全用 各種機器에 對하여 考察하였다. Aircraft Evacuation Problems Studies of crash survival and crash fires have given us many practical goals to shoot at, when establishing time limits in getting people out of the aircraft. This must be accomplished before the temperature builds up to a point beyond human endurance, before all oxygen is consumed by the fire, before anoxia take place, and before toxic gases build up to a point where they become fatal. Window exits have been made larger, and the number of door size exits substantially increased. However, the number of passengers earned has also, in many cases, doubled. The hand-held slides have veen replaced by inflatable by inflatable ones, on the jets, thereby reducing the time to put them in an operational condition. Yet, with all these improvements, we are still experiencing fatalities in the so-called survival accidents. I am personally of the opinion that the problem of survival in survival accidents, can be summed up in one word; people; and that the solution to survival in an accidents, can be summed up in one word: people; and that the solution to survival in an accident is People, also. Flight crew traning in emergency evacuation procedures is of paramount importance in the effective use of escape time. And the greatest emphasis must be placed on the handling of the unexpected crash. Human Survival in Aircraft Crash Fires The various hazards to which the airplane occupants are exposed to during an accident are as follows: -Skin burning, -Respiratory system damage, -Carbon monoxide combined with oxygen depletion and, -Carbon dioxide. In this respect, one must determine the time interval during which passengers remain physically able to attempt an escape under their own efforts. This time interval will be called the escape time. Furthermore, there will be a different escape time for each of the above mentioned hazards. Escape time limited by heat and toxic gases. One minute after impact of the aircraft, the fire normally redevelops, and to such an extent that the entire fuselage. Thirty seven seconds after fuel ignition, when flames make their way into the cabin traces of obscure the interior of the fuselage. In some instances, it is conceivable that the escape time might also be hindered by damage to the respiratory system, resulting from inhlation of hot gases. One minute and twenty seconds after impact, the radiant temperature normally reaches 420 degrees C. In this respect, studies show that any satisfactory protection barrier must protect passengers against all of these factors, if a significant increase in escape time is to be made. Safety Equipment The seat is obviously a prime element in occupant survial. It must be comfortable, durable, adjustable and sethetically acceptable in order to fulfill its basic function. Furthermore, seat backs and seat lower structure should be designed to minimize impact injury ot occupants. Concerning the aisles and exits, both the aircraft manufacturers and operators much demonstrate the capability of aislies and exits, in order that all occupants evacuate the aircraft in 90 seconds, under night conditions, while using half the exits only. Also it is fecommended that life jackets for all on board should be carried on all civil aircraft at any stage of flight for the safety in ditching. Conclusions Survival in accidents is best accomplished by keeping the occupants alive, conscious and mobile, and by facilitating their safe avacuation from the aircraft. Continuing reserch and development and better exchange of improved informations are required.

航空運送需要豫測에 對한 感度分析과 正確度評價에 關한 硏究

柳光井 한국항공대학교 1983 論文集 Vol.21 No.-

This investigation has described the procedures for developing and evaluating regression models that can be used to analyze, forecast, and plan for air transportation services. Improving the regression models will ultimately lead to an improvement in the planning and effective decision making process from the point of view improved forecasts. In recent years a number of researchers have investigated the relative accuracy of quantitative methods for long-range air travel market forecasting. Some have concluded not only that objective methods of forecasting are more accurate than subjective methods but also that causal methods, which include regression analysis, are more accurate than time series methods. This survey has provided a synthesis of the important procedures and tests available for the development of reliable linear regression models to analyze and forecast the demand for air transportation. Residual analysis and hat matrix have been described to perform sensitivity analysis with respect to the question of robustness of the forecasting model. Hat matrix is useful to determine outliers and leverage points in the demand forecasting model. Finally, this research investigated some procedures to evaluate the effectiveness of a demand forecasting model for air transportation. Most of these procedures rely heavily on observing the performance of the model during the estimation period or during the ex post forecast period, or both. Some insight into the past forecast accuracy can be obtained by the simple statistical measures. Next they can plot control charts and prediction-realization diagrams, the latter being useful indicators of the predictibility of turning points. The predictive capability of models can also be evaluated using Theil's inequalty coefficient and its various components, which are useful in identifying the nature and extent of the past forecasts errors.

國際線運航航空會社의 責任과 意義

柳光井 한국항공대학교 1972 論文集 Vol.4 No.-

한 나라를 代表하는 國際線 航空會社(National Carrier)의 外交的인 役割과 國民과의 結束, 그리고 航空界와 相互協力에 對한 重要性은 航空運送事業이 發達하면 할수록 增大되는 것이다. 이 重要性을 航空會社는 잊어서는 안되며 同時에 國家나 國民과 社會의 協助가 이를 더욱 着實히 이끌어 주어야 할 것이다. The importance of cooperation between the diplomatic role of the national carrier representing a country and the national unity as well as its aviational field matters unusually great, and therefore the more the enterprises of air transportation are developed, the greater will this importance become. Consequently, a national carrier must always remember this importance, and at the same time, a country and communities and the people living in them ought to enable this importance to be recognized and its assigned mission to be performed all the more steadily through their cooperation as well as assistance.

國內航空旅客交通量의 豫測方法에 對한 硏究 : 서울-釜山을 中心으로

柳光井 한국항공대학교 1976 論文集 Vol.10 No.-

本 硏究는 航空輸送 業務가 他 交通機關과의 競爭을 하는 地城이나 區間에서 乘客의 추세를 分析하는데 適用할 수 있도록 試圖 되었다. 그래서 交通手段別 施行所要時間, 運賃과 一日의 運航回數 (또는 運行回數)를 比較 檢討하는 分析方法을 展開하였다. 그 첫번째 단계로 두 地點 사이를 잇는 名 交通手段으로 施行하는 乘客에 대하여 總 施客數를 名 手段別로 分類하는데 適合한 모델을 設定하는 다음으로는 兩 地點間의 總合 施客數의 豫測에 適用되는 모델을 設定하여 이들 두 모델을 綜合하여 航桶施客의 변동추세를 豫測할 수 있도록 하였다. This forecasting method is intended for application at the route between Seoul and Buans but it is applicable in general where sighificant competition between various means of transport exists. The method takes into account the time and cost involved in using the different means of transport and the frequency of service for the different means. In this method, a forecast of the travel by a means of public transport such as air transport involves two steps. One step is to estimate how the total travel by public transpot will be devided among the alternative means (e.g., bus, rail and air). The other step involves the estimate, by means of a different model, of the total number of passenger trips by the whole system of public transportation. By combining the two models, the number of travellers going by air between two cities at a future time may be estimated.

韓國 國內航空의 定期旅客 最適輸送計劃에 對한 硏究 : 未來의 需要豫測과 輸送航空機믹스(mix)를 中心으로

宋喜鐵,柳光井 한국항공대학교 1977 論文集 Vol.11 No.-

本 硏究는 各 公共交通手段의 輸送性能이 旅客輸送量의 增減에 影響을 주고 있다고 가정하여 輸送性能의 水準이 곧 當該 手段의 運送分擔率이 된다고 前提하고 兩 地點間의 全體旅客交通量을 各 手段別 分擔率에 衣하여 分類하는데 適合한 모델을 設定하고 다음으로 全體의 旅客交通量을 豫測하는 모델을 設定하여 이 두 모델을 聯結하여 航空旅客交通量을 未來의 어느 時點에 對하여 豫測할 수 있도록 하였다. 그리고 輸送性能의 質的水準을 測定케 하는 變數의 調整으로 輸送性能을 改善하는 方向이 提示되고 이로 因하여 未來의 特定한 基間에 對한 適正 輸送計劃이 決定된다. The forecasting model takes into account the time and cost involved in using the different means of transport and the frequency of service for the different means. It further takes into account the expenditure on Gross National Products of the Korea. Finally the model takes into account time series as a variable of forecasting total number of passengers transporting by the whole systems of public transport. Using this model, a forecast of the travel by means of public transport such as air transport involves two steps. One step is to estimate how the total travel by public transport will be divided among the alternative means (e.g., bus, rail and air). The other step involves the estimate, by means of a different model, of the total number of passenger trips by the whole system of public transportation. By combining the two models, the number of travellers going by air between two cities at a future time may be estimated. The sharing of traffics among the alternative public means of transport is estimated on the basis of their "Performance of Operations." Referring to a particular mode by the suffix "i" the performance of operations Pi for that mode on a given route is defined by Pi=?? where ?? : constant ?? : aerage total trip time by mode i ?? : average total trip cost by mode i ?? : daily departure frequency for mode i The Performance of operations for the systems of public transport modes as whole(W) is defined as the sum of Pi's for the different modes of the system and the share of traffic carried by mode i(??) is estimate to be ??=?? The model for estimating the total number of trips per quarterly between cities and cities by public transport (??) is ??=k+??+?? where X₁: expenditure on gross national products X₂: time series variable a₁,a₂: Coefficients of independent variable Selecting procedure of the best alternative handing the forecasted volume of passengers among the various alternatives is based on program of decision making under certainty. The decision matrix is constructed by the various factors of flight operational efficiency and operational profitability, and the basic parameters of those factors are the types of airplane in related to operating cost, passenger capacity, elasped flying time between specific point and other point and utilization hour length per specific periods.

最適巡航高度選定에 對한 硏究

柳光井 한국항공대학교 1975 論文集 Vol.8 No.-

長距離 路線의 飛行에서 飛行機 性能을 效率的으로 理用하여 經濟的인 運航成果를 얻는 重要한 要素 中의 하나는 最適高度를 選擇하여 비행하는 것이라고 생각한다. 本 解析은 航空機性能에 대하여 直接的으로 영향을 미치는 要素를 分析하고 最適高度의 選定에 對하여 飛行 中 取할 수있는 最大 眞對氣速度는 해당 비행기의 허용운용속도와 許容運用마하數가 一致하는 高度에서 얻을 수 있으며 이 一致氣壓高度에 근거하여 最適高度를 算出할 수 있음을 發見하였다. The important component of the economical operations on the long distance flight is based on the choic of optimum crusing altitude of the given type of aeroplane. All accountable factors are considered to find optimum altitude for jet aeropland and then, the major findings of this analysis are as follows: 1)The highest true airspeed is obtained at the height where Vmo (maximum operating limit speed ) and Mmo(maximum operating limit mach number) coincide. 2)The basic reference of the selection of optimum altitude is the height where the true airspeed is the highest value.

航空機事故豫防에 對한 硏究

柳光井 한국항공대학교 1973 論文集 Vol.6 No.-

事故의 豫防은 事故調査와 安全度 開發에 對한 繼續的인 硏究로서 얻어진 各種 情報와 資料에 根據하여 이루어지는 것이다. 事故원인 그 自體에 對한 事後處理 뿐만 아니라 情報와 資料에 의한 處理도 事故防止에 重要한 役割을 하며 事故發生의 環境的 要素와 人間要素에 對한 硏究가 安全度를 開發, 向上하여 나가는 것이다. 本 論文은 事故豫防에 있어서 國際民航空機構의 總合的이고 全世界의 中心的인 役割과 各 締約國 航空行政當國의 航行安全施設開發 및 航空會社의 技術向上과 事故에 對한 硏究 및 敎育 訓練에 關하여 理論的으로 硏究하였다. The fundamental purpose of an aircraft accident investigation is to determine the facts, conditions and circumstanced pertaining to the accident, with a view of establishing the probable course(s) thereoff, so that appropriate steps may be taken to prevent a recurrence of a similaraccident. Thus it can be said that careful accident investigation is the basis of accident prevention is not solely related to the accident cause. During the course of the investigation the various aspects of the operation of the aircraft, the maintenance of the aircraft, navigational facilities, communications, air traffic control, cockpit design, aircraft crashworthiness, to name a few, are examined. Invariably the investigator, having regard to the knowledge gained during the investigation, will form an opinion that improvements could be effected which would raise the level of air safety, and it is his responsibility to make recommendations concerning matters. It is only by a wide and prompt dissemination of the results of the investigation, not only in the countrys directly concerned, but also on a world wide basis, that proper accident prevention can be achieved. Another very important factor in accident prevention is the careful study of incidents. As accident is seldom the result of a single cause; in most cases it is the result of a more or less complex chain of circumstances. It may be said that every incident is a potential accident and has remained an incident simply because one link of the chain was missing. Therefore, every incident should be reported and when necessary investigated with the same causes if it were an accident. This paper dealt with the subject of accident prevention and was concerned with three basic areas namely, safety levels, what International Civil Aviation Organization was attempting to do in the area of accident prevention, and what could be done by the airline operators and national administrations. It is natural to say that the airline being the own and the operator of the aircraft, should take all necessary measures to ensurse adequate safety and commercial efficiency; and this is mainly achieved through proper and extensive training for which important budgets are provided. And the civil aviation directorates are not directly concerned with the choice, operation and maintenance of the aircraft. For these reasons, their responsibility in safety and accident prevention is defferent if not lesser than airlines responsibities. So, primarily, civil aviation directorates are concerned with the operation and development of airports and with the establishment of flight operations rules and regulations and control of their implementation by airlines. Lastly, and with regard to the availability of International Civil Aviation Organization, promotion of investigation technique, study of air safesy level and disseminatio of informations of accident prevention should be established by the ICAO is cope with the requirements to be met for order development of air transportation.

航空機 事故調査技法의 硏究

柳光井,朴溶寒 한국항공대학교 1973 論文集 Vol.5 No.-

航空機 運航에서 要求되는 것은 무엇보다도 安全運航이다. 航空機 事故調査를 遂行하고 調査報告書를 作成한다. 이는 모든 事故要素를 發見하고 이를 分析 評價하여 航空基에 잠재한 모든 결함과 결함이 생길 수 있는 要素에 대한 矯正措置를 함으로써 同一한 事故의 再發을 防止하고 나아가서 安全을 開發하여 安全度를 最高度로 維持하는 것이다. 事故調査는 綜合科學으로서 모든 事實에 對하여 重要하게 다루어 져야하며 廣範圍한 調査活動이 要求되며 깊이 試驗되어 져야 한다. 그리고 調査의 技術開發과 安全開發硏究는 航空運送이 發達하는데 따라 더욱 그 깊이와 幅을 넓혀 發展되어 가야 한다. Safety is a major factor of air transportation. In order to determine the facts, conditions and circumstances pertaining to the aircraft accident investigation with a view to establishing the probable cause thereof, the appropriate steps must be taken to prevent a reaccurrence of the accident and the factors which led to it. Aircraft accident investigation which is one of the important science should be determined what happened, how it happened, and why it happened, applying these question not only to basic course but to all aspects relating to safety. Promotion of investigation tedchnique and study of safety of flight operations should be established in cope with the requirements to be met for development of air transportation.

濟州道産業開發計劃 및 空港整備計劃의 一體化에 관한 硏究

柳光井,宋喜鐵,朴五華,咸永勳 한국항공대학교 1978 論文集 Vol.13 No.-

Cheju Island is evaluated as a best area for four seasons tourist site with it's rich natural and cultural resources. The study team aimed to suggest a course of action to utilize the retained resourses as fully, and the effective way of positive drive for the Cheju Island development plan. as a conclusion, the study team suggest to establish Cheju Island development organization as a corporate body, and the newly established organization should consolidate the development paln for resouces and geographical postion as a merit, and airport developament plan to compensate the defect of transportation view point.