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최관,한상열 ( Kwan Choi,Sang Yoel Han ) 한국산림과학회 1996 한국산림과학회지 Vol.85 No.1
Preparing the era of forest resources management requires studies on forest fire. This study attempted to develop forest fire occurrence model using meteorological characteristics for the practical purposes of forecasting forest fire danger rate. To accomplish this goal, the relationships between forest fire occurrence and meteorological characteristics are estimated. In the process, the forest fire occurrence pattern of the study region(Taegu-Kyungpook) is categorized by employing qualification IV method. The study region was divided into three areas such as, Taegu, Andong and Pohang area. The meteorological variables emerged as affective to forest fire occurrence are relative humidity, longitude of sunshine, and duration of precipitation. To estimate the probability of forest fire danger, forest fire occurrence of three areas are regressed on the time series data of affective meteorological variables using logistic and probit model. The effectiveness of the models estimated are tested and showed acceptable degree of goodness. Those models developed would be helpful to increase the efficiency of forest fire management such as detection of forest fire occurrence and effective disposition of forest fire fight equipments.
폐지시장의 수요 · 공급 모델의 개발과 회수율 제고방안
최관(Kwan Choi),한상열(Sang Yoel Han) 한국산림과학회 1994 한국산림과학회지 Vol.83 No.2
Wastepaper recycling has significant implications not only in providing scarce raw material input for the paper industry but in environmental concerns such as reducing solid waste disposal, energy conservation and preservation of forest resources. The objectives of this study was ① to develop an econometric model of demand for and supply of wastepaper, ② to forecast wastepaper consumption and price to the year 2000 applying the econometric models estimated and ③ to estimate the elasticity of variables which are included in the wastepaper supply and demand equations. In this study wastepaper was classified into three groups, old newsprint, old corrugated and mixed For each group such as demand and supply equation were estimated. The demand equations were estimated as a function of paper and paper product consumption and wholesale price index and supply equations as a function of wastepaper price, one year lagged paper and paperproduct consumption and transportation price. Applying the econometric models to forcasting results in the future consumption and supply of wastepaper projected as 11.645 million MT and 7.396 million MT in 2000, respectively. The rate of wastepaper self -supply is forcasted about 63.5% in 2000. Especially, the rate of old neswprint self-supply is predicted about 16% which means about 2.2 million MT of old newsprint should be imported from foreign countries. Lastly, some policy measures to promote wastepaper recycling rate based upon economic and physical characteristics of wastepaper and market structure are suggested.
한상열(Sang Yoel Han),김태균(Tae Kyun Kim),조재환(Jae Hwan Cho),최관(Kwan Choi) 한국산림과학회 1999 한국산림과학회지 Vol.88 No.1
The dynamic relationships among import prices of roundwood are analyzed using the time series approach. A vector autoregression(VAR) model is estimated for six import prices(New Zealand, Chile, Russia, U.S.A., PNG, and Malaysia). Then Granger`s causality test, variance decomposition analysis, and impulse response function analysis are also conducted. The major results are summarized as follows : ① The prices of New Zealand and Russia are caused by only own lagged prices. ② The prices of Chile and PNG are effected by New Zealand, the price of PNG is effected by New Zealand and Russia, and the price of U.S.A. is effected by those of Chile and PNG, respectively. ③ An exogenous shock in New Zealand will affect the prices of New Zealand, PNG, U.S.A., Chile, Russia. ④ An exogenous shock in Chile may also affect the prices of Chile, U.S.A., Russia.
개방형과 폐쇄형질문에 의한 Contingent Valuation 의 순경제적 가치평가에 대한 비모수적검정 (非母數的檢定) : 무주리조트 스키장의 사례
한상열,최관 ( Sang Yoel Han,Kwan Choi ),Joe P . Colletti 한국산림과학회 1997 한국산림과학회지 Vol.86 No.1
The contingent valuation method(CVM) has been used to evaluate the economic value of nonmarket goods such as forest recreation. There are two commonly used CVM questionnaire formats: open-ended and closed-ended. This study evaluates the net economic value associated with day use downhill skiing, using CVM. A random, on-site survey of skiers in Muju, Korea generated the value estimates. In this paper a nonparametric test is introduced to find whether the difference between value estimates from open-ended and closed-ended formats are significantly different because the distributions of WTPs are non-normally distributed. The results show that the net economic benefits of a skier in Muju varies from ₩15.131 to ₩25,332. The closed-ended values were 1.15 to 1.67 times as large as the open-ended values, depending on the model specifications. In nonparametric test the mean WTPs of the open-ended and close-ended applications are significantly different. Its reason may be that closed-ended can be more reducing the incentive for strategic behavior than open-ended question. However, we cannot conclude that the closed-ended method is superior to the open-ended method.
이호승(Ho-Seung Lee),한상열(Sang-Yoel Han),최관(Kwan Choi) 한국산림휴양학회 2011 한국산림휴양학회지 Vol.15 No.1
본 연구는 조선시대 지리산 유람을 다녀온 선인(先人)들이 남긴 유람록의 번역문을 통하여 유람의 동기, 여정, 휴양행태를 분석하였으며, 원문에 나타난 그 당시 지리산의 수종을 파악하였다. 지리산을 유람한 인물들은 사대부 계층으로 유람을 휴양과 수양의 목적으로 간주하였다. 대부분의 인물이 지리산의 최고봉인 천왕봉에 올랐으며, 유람간에는 주로 사찰을 숙박지로 이용하였다. 휴양행태로는 음주가무와 작시(作詩)가 주를 이루었다. 유람록을 통해본 당시 지리산 출현 수종은 초본류 9종, 목본류 36종으로 나타났다. This study analyzed travel writing of Mt. Jiri in the Jo-seon Dynasty. The translation compared with the original for the purpose and schedule and behavior of such travels. Also, through the original analyzing, grasped kind of tree at that time. Travelers considered that climbing was a different way of study. So, they were traveled mountain. Most of travelers was visited Chunwang-Bong that was known as the highest peak in the Mt. Jiri. During the travels, temples were used as inn. At the same time, travelers used to drink, dance and versify. Travel writing showed various flora that were 9 kinds of herb and 36 kinds of arbor.