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분위회귀를 이용한 한반도 연안 해면 고도의 장주기 선형 추세 분석
임병준,장유순,LIM, BYEONG-JUN,CHANG, YOU-SOON 한국해양학회 2018 바다 Vol.23 No.2
본 연구에서는 분위회귀를 이용하여 1993~2016년 동안의 한반도 조위 자료의 장주기 선형 추세를 분석하였다. 일반 선형회귀(OLS: Ordinary Least Square)와 50% 중간 분위 회귀 결과를 비교했을 때 특히 황해에서 약 2~3 mm/year의 회귀 결과의 차이를 발견하였으며, 이는 극한 값 변화에 기인함을 확인할 수 있었다. 또한 해역별로 하위(1%) 분위와 중간(50%) 분위, 상위(99%) 분위의 값이 모두 다르게 나타났다. 황해의 대부분 지역에서는 상위 분위와 하위 분위가 모두 증가하는 경향을 나타냈으나, 유의미한 "상향 발산형" 회귀 결과를 보였다. 이는 상위 분위가 중간 분위에 비해 유의미하게 크게 나타나는 경향을 의미한다. 대한민국 남해안에서는 상위 분위가 하위 분위보다 더 작은 증가 값을 가지는 "상향 수렴형" 회귀 결과가 특징적으로 나타났다. 이러한 경향은 조화 분석을 통해 알려진 조석 분조들을 제거한 결과에서는 없어지는 것을 확인하였다. 그러므로 분위 회귀의 지역적 특성은 조석 세기의 장주기 변동과 연관이 있다고 추측된다. This study analyzed the long-term linear trends of the sea surface height around the Korea marginal seas for the period of 1993~2016 by using quantile regression. We found significant difference about 2~3 mm/year for the linear trend between OLS (ordinary least square) and median (50%) quantile regression especially in the Yellow Sea, which is affected by extreme events. Each area shows different trend for each quantile (lower (1%), median (50%) and upper (99%)). Most areas of the Yellow Sea show increasing trend in both low and upper quantile, but significant "upward divergence tendency". This implies that significant increasing trend of upper quantile is higher than that of lower quantile in this area. Meanwhile, South Sea of Korea generally shows "upward convergence tendency" representing that increasing trend of upper quantile is lower than that of lower quantile. This study also confirmed that these tendencies can be eliminated by removing major tidal components from the harmonic analysis. Therefore, it is assumed that the regional characteristics are related to the long term change of tide amplitude.
임병준,이은석,양수석,이익형,김영상,권기범 한국유체기계학회 2004 한국유체기계학회 논문집 Vol.7 No.5
The turbine efficiency is an important factor in power plant, and accurate evaluation of steam turbine performance is the key issue in turbomachinery industry. The difficulty of evaluating the steam turbine performance due to its high steam temperature and pressure environment makes the most steam turbine tests to be replaced by air similarity test. This paper presents how to decide the similarity conditions of the steam turbine test and describes its limitations and assumptions. The test facility was developed and arranged to conduct an air similarity turbine performance test with various inlet pressure, temperature and mass flow rate. The eddy-current type dynamometer measures the turbine-generated shaft power and controls the rotating speed. Pressure ratio of turbine can be controled by back pressure control valve. To verify its test results, uncertainty analysis was performed and relative uncertainty of turbine efficiency was obtained.
임병준,차봉준 한국유체기계학회 2004 한국유체기계학회 논문집 Vol.7 No.3
An experimental study on the performance and instability development characteristics of a centrifugal compressor equipped with an adjustable inlet guide vane has been performed with varying guide vane angles. The test was conducted at the design speed of 20,800 rpm for 6 guide vane angles : -30°, -20°, -10°, 0°, 10°, 20°, 30°. Unsteady pressures were measured using high-frequency pressure transducers at the inducer to investigate the instability phenomena such as rotating stall and surge inside the compressor. From the unsteady measurements, it is found that the transient process from rotating stall to surge was mainly affected by inlet guide vane angles. The results of the present study can be applied to the instability control of the centrifugal compressors using a adjustable inlet guide vane.
한반도 주변 해역 해수면 및 수온, 염분의 선형 추세 분석을 위한 종합 회귀 도표 개발
임병준,장유순,LIM, BYEONG-JUN,CHANG, YOU-SOON 한국해양학회 2016 바다 Vol.21 No.2
본 연구에서는 한반도 주변 해역의 해수면 및 수온, 염분의 선형 추세 분석을 위한 종합 회귀 도표를 개발하였다. 현장 관측 자료는 품질 관리 과정을 거쳤으며 객관 분석 자료와의 경험적 직교 함수 비교를 통해 검증하여 사용하였다. 종합 회귀 도표를 통해 기존의 연구 결과들과 유사한 선형 회귀 값을 확인하였고, 1983년부터 2013년 기간동안에서의 5년에서 30년 단위의 변동률을 추가로 제시하였다. 본 연구에서 제시된 정량적 결과가 향후 해양 장기 추세 관련 연구의 기준 값으로 유용하게 사용될 것을 기대한다. This study developed synthetic regression diagram for analyzing the linear trend of sea surface height, temperature, and salinity around the Korean marginal seas. In situ observed data had been quality controlled and they were verified by EOF comparison with objective analyzed data. From the synthetic regression diagram, we confirmed similar linear regression values with those of previous studies, but additionally provided detailed regression rate of each 5 to 30 year for the total periods of 1983-2013. We expect that quantitative results presented by this study will be useful as standard reference numbers for relevant studies analyzing oceanic long-term trend.
임병준 한일경상학회 2010 韓日經商論集 Vol.48 No.-
The purpose of this study is tries to search an efficient monetary policy for an exit strategy about Korea. Simply, ‘monetary’ or ‘loan’. To accomplish this purpose, it is show that ‘the monetary demand function is stable’ or ‘the loan demand function is stable’ in use empirical test based on the model of Bernanke and Blinder(1988). If ‘the loan demand function is better stable’ is true, a policy of targeting loan is probably batter a policy of targeting money. It is a result of empirical test that the monetary demand function is unstable. Thus ‘the loan demand function is better stable’. This is support that policy of targeting loan is probably better. But it is necessary that the small enterprise care where the policy is enforced. And it is desirable that household debt is reduced.