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최필수 ( Choi Pilsoo ),이치훈 ( Lee Chihun ) 현대중국학회 2018 現代中國硏究 Vol.20 No.2
중국의 외환보유액이 정점을 찍고 하락하면서 IMF는 중국의 외환보유액이 기준에 못 미친다고 주장한다. 이 연구는 과거 중국 외환보유고 증가 원인과 최근 감소 원인을 분석하고 중국 적정 외환보유액 산정을 위한 기준을 제시한다. IMF가 제시한 단기외채, 기타채무, 통화량, 수출액을 변수로 받아들이되 통화량의 비중을 조절하면 중국의 외환보유액은 충분하다. IMF는 중국의 높은 통화량 비중과 정기예금 비중 그리고 높은 자본통제 수준을 고려하지 않아서 지나치게 높은 외환보유고 기준을 제시하고 있다. 향후 중국은 경상수지 균형과 대외투자 확대의 영향으로 외환보유공급이 감소할 것이다. 그러나 자본개방이 진행된다면 외환보유 수요가 증가하는 딜레마에 처한다. 특히 외환보유 필요를 소멸시킬 위안화 국제화는 외환보유 증가를 필요로 하는 자본계정 개방 없이는 달성되기 어렵다. 중국은 이런 딜레마에서 단기적 금융안정을 우선시하는 정책을 펼 것으로 보인다. As China’s foreign exchange reserves have declined since June 2014, IMF implies that the country’s level is behind the standard. This paper analyzes the past increases and recent decreases in China’s foreign exchange reserves and proposes the criteria to compute the required level. We found that China has a sufficient reserves with adjusting the broad money’s weight while accepting IMF’s variables such as short-term debt, other foreign debt and amount of exports. IMF is supposing too high standard for China not considering its heavy amount of broad money along with its fixed deposits and capital control. In the near future, China’s foreign exchange reserves will further decline due to the rebalanced current account and increasing outward investment. As the capital accounts opening proceeds, on the other hand, the demand for foreign reserves grows. RMB internationalization which will terminate the needs to hold foreign reserves is unlikely to be realized without opening of capital accounts. In this dilemma, China is expected to put more stresses on the short-term financial stability.
왕윤종 ( Wang Yunjong ),이치훈 ( Lee Chihun ) 한중사회과학학회 2017 한중사회과학연구 Vol.15 No.3
Since the reform and market opening policy in 1978, China has become the world`s largest trading nation and second largest economic power measured by GDP. Nevertheless, China`s financial system has long been regarded as backward and fragile. That is mainly due to the fact that the Chinese economy still possesses typical characteristics of financial repression. Despite many efforts for financial sector reform undertaken during the period of Zhu Rongji, financial market has been heavily regulated. The state has strong influence in the domestic credit allocation and still strictly maintained capital account controls. After Prime Minister Zhu Rongji stepped down, financial sector reform was pulled back. Consequently, the state-owned enterprise crowded out the private enterprises in the credit allocation and investment. This phenomenon has become more prominent since the global financial crisis in 2008. Thus, corporate credit growth in China has been excessive in recent years. Investment efficiency has significantly declined and the financial performance of corporate sector has severely deteriorated, affecting asset quality in China`s financial institutions, including major state-owned commercial banks. In this regard, the corporate debt problem should be promptly addressed with a comprehensive plan and measures. Otherwise, China may be more likely to become an important source of global financial instability. This paper reviews the historical experience of financial market reform and development since 1978. It addresses the main causes of China`s financial backwardness and fragility. By evaluating the current status of China`s financial system, this paper deals with the issues related to the reform dilemma that the Chinese government currently faces - trade-off between short-term economic pain and long-term gain.
구기보 ( Ku Kibo ),이치훈 ( Lee Chihun ) 한국외국어대학교 중국연구소 2017 中國硏究 Vol.70 No.-
This paper intends to predict the future of state-owned companies by reviewing the positive and negative roles of them in the Chinese economy. As the debts of state-owned companies of China increase rapidly, state debts also grow steadily in recent years. But it is expected that state-owned companies has less serious debt repayment ability because their net profits rise favorably and their deposits also mount steadily. As the increase of state-owned companies` debts results in the growth of state debts in China and in the enhancement of the ratio of commercial banks` bad loans, the crises of them tend to expand into state and commercial banks. But net profits of commercial banks in China have mounted significantly though non-performing loans(NPL) of them grow to an extent. As a result, it is not expected that the increase of NPL brings about the crises of commercial banks. Nevertheless it is possible that state-owned companies-oriented supporting policies cause less efficiency of overall companies or the fall of real estate market. As for Korean economy, the slow state-owned companies` reform is expected to lead to the unstability of Chinese economy. Accordingly, it will have a negative effect on Korean exports or investment in China. Therefore, Korea need to strengthen monitoring and expand export or investment in other countries. On the other hand, in case state-owned companies` reform goes well, Korean companies will face more competitive Chinese companies. As a result, Korea need to try to gain comparative advantages while monitoring the process of state-owned companies` reform.