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송민섭(Min Sup Song) 한국경영학회 2008 經營學硏究 Vol.37 No.6
This paper examines the effect of quarterly earnings announcements on analysts` forecast revisions and their accuracy. In 2000, new regulation of the financial markets in Korea began requiring firms to disclosure quarterly accounting reports. If quarterly earnings announcements provide additional information and analysts use those information to form their new forecast, there should be difference in forecast properties around earnings announcements. Empirical results show a significant increase in the number of analyst forecast revisions following the earnings announcements. Results also show that forecasts issued immediately after the earnings announcement are revised by large magnitude and are more accurate. However, revisions issued relatively long after earnings announcements have indifferent forecast accuracy from forecast revisions immediately after the announcements. These results suggest that quarterly announcements provide predictive information about future earnings, and new information contained in earnings announcements are more likely reflected by those forecast issued immediately after earnings announcements.
송민섭(Min Sup Song),변상혁(Sang Hyuk Byun) 한국경영학회 2013 經營學硏究 Vol.42 No.5
Press indicates that optimistic bias in information intermediaries such as analysts is one of the major causes for 2008 financial crisis. The objective of this study is to examine whether and how analysts change their forecasting behaviors around 2008 financial crisis to investigate the role of analysts in capital market during 2008 financial crisis. More specifically, we examine how analysts revise their stock recommendations and earnings forecasts around 2008 financial crisis. We also examine the change in investors` reactions to analysts` earnings forecast revisions around 2008 financial crisis. Empirical results show that analysts tend to simply reiterate their existing forecasts or do not issue forecasts during 2008 financial crisis. Relatively small number of analysts revised their stock recommendations and earnings forecasts during financial crisis. Because of these behaviors,overall analyst forecasts and recommendations become optimistically biased. In addition, we find insignificant earnings response coefficient on analysts` upward earnings revisions during financial crisis period, while we find stronger market reaction to downward revisions. Our empirical results suggest that analysts play the limited role as information intermediaries during 2008 financial crisis. In addition, investors tend to discount information content of analyst forecasts if forecasts are inconsistent with stock market condition. Our evidence helps investors and regulators and investors in assessing value of analyst forecasts and need for new regulation.
송민섭(Min-Sup Song),김연충(Yuen Chung Kim) 한국철도학회 2016 한국철도학회 학술발표대회논문집 Vol.2016 No.5
철도 차량용 보조전원장치 (APS, Auxiliary Power Supply)는 차량에 필요한 전원을 공급하는 핵심적인 전장품으로써 차량 편성에 따라 2대 이상으로 구성되어 독립적으로 운영된다. 일부 APS에 고장 발생 시 정상 운영 중인 APS가 연장 급전을 통해서 고장이 발생한 APS의 부하에 임시적으로 전원을 공급할 때 까지 전원이 일시적으로 차단되어 승객에 불편을 초래한다. 본 논문에서는 이러한 문제점을 해결하기 위해서 2대 이상의 APS가 상시 병렬 운전을 하여 끊김없는 전원 공급을 할 수 있는 APS 병렬 운전 알고리즘에 대해서 연구하였다. 병렬 운전을 위한 통신 및 외부 제어 부담을 최소화 하기 위해 간단하고 효과적인 제어 알고리즘을 제안하고, PSIM 시뮬레이션으로 타당성을 검증하였다. Auxiliary power supply (APS) for railway vehicle, consisting of more than two subs, is the key electric component for supplying electric power of vehicle. When one of APS fails, fault one is stopped and disunited from vehicle load. During the extension of power from remaining normal APS, passengers have to endure inconvenience due to temporarily blocked electric power. In this paper, the simple parallel synchronous operation algorithm for APS was propose, with which All APS can operated in parallel at all times resulting seamless power supply to load even during failure of some APS. For minimizing the communication and other external control efforts to implement synchronous operation, simple but effective control algorithm was suggested and verified by PSIM simulation.