CVM을 이용한 바다낚시 자원풍도 증가에 대한 지불의사액 추정에 관한 연구

남종오,박철형 한국해양과학기술원 2016 Ocean and Polar Research Vol.38 No.3

The purpose of this study is to estimate the Willingness To Payment (WTP) of sea-anglers regarding the increase in the abundance of fish resources resulting from the Korean vessel buy-back program using the contingent valuation method. Data was collected through sample surveys of 352 seaanglers across the nation in 2015. If a 20% increase in the abundance of fish resources resulted from the vessel buy-back program, WTP estimates of sea-anglers per recreational fishing trip were 9,570 won on truncated mean, 16,528 won on mean, and 35,830 won on median, respectively. Additionally, when the number of annual total recreational fishing trips in Korea were estimated as 22,700 thousand trips, the annual increase in national welfare through recreational fishing was estimated to be 217.2 billion won on the truncated mean, 375.2 billion won on the mean, and 813.3 billion won on the median, respectively.

지구별 수산업협동조합의 경영효율성 분석

남종오,손진곤 한국협동조합학회 2020 韓國協同組合硏究 Vol.38 No.1

The national federation of fisheries cooperatives and regional fisheries cooperatives, which have been somewhat stagnant over the past few years, have recently shown some improvements on their projects and business. The recovery of productivity, such as the management efficiency of the regional fisheries cooperatives, is expected to bring positive changes to the revitalization of the fishing village by strengthening the survival of the fishers themselves. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to examine the dynamic changes of productivity in 70 regional fishery cooperatives for the last six years, 2013 to 2018, and analyze the factors that influenced these changes in productivity or management efficiency. As a result, the total factor productivity was estimated to decrease by approximately 16% in the last six years. However, during the same period, the total factor productivity was 10% in 2015, 11% in 2016, 3% in 2017, and 1% in 2018, indicating that the decline was decreasing. In conclusion, this study confirms that the total factor of productivity in the 70 regional fisheries cooperatives has been on the recovery trend in accordance with the management innovation policy of fisheries cooperatives. This was due to technological change causing a statistically significant downward movement of the production possibility frontier under the 95% significance level. 지난 몇 년간 다소 침체하였던 수협중앙회 및 지구별 수산업협동조합은 최근 들어 다소 경영개선이 이루어지고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 이 중 지구별 수산업협동조합의 자구 노력으로 인한 경영효율성에 해당하는 생산성 회복은 어업인 스스로의 생존을 강화시켜 어촌경제 활성화에 긍정적 변화를 가져올 것으로 기대된다. 따라서 본 연구는 2013년에서 2018년의 최근 6년간 지구별 수산업협동조합 70개소를 대상으로 생산성의 동태적 변화를 살펴보고, 이러한 생산성의 변화에 영향을 준 요인이 무엇인지를 분석하였다. 분석결과, 총요소생산성은 최근 6년간 약 16% 감소한 것으로 추정되었다. 그러나 동기간 동안 총요소생산성은 전년 대비 2015년 10%, 2016년 11%, 2017년 3%, 2018년 1%의 감소 수준을 보여 하락폭이 줄어들고 있음을 확인할 수 있었다. 결론적으로 본 연구는 최근 수산업협동조합의 경영혁신 정책에 따라 지구별 수협 70개소의 총요소생산성이 회복 추세에 있다는 것을 확인하였는데, 이는 기술변화에 기인한 것으로 95%의 신뢰구간 하에서 통계적으로 유의한 생산가능곡선의 하방이동에 의한 것으로 분석되었다.

충남지역 수산종자방류사업 경제성 분석: 꽃게를 중심으로

남종오,조훈석,임상민 한국해양수산개발원 2019 해양정책연구 Vol.34 No.1

This study aims to analyze the economic feasibility of the seed release program on the swimming crab in Chungnam province. To analyze the economic feasibility, this study employs several approaches such as the increment of production value, the average production cost, and the supply elasticity. As a result, the B/C ratio estimated by the approach of the increment of production value was 2.0674, the B/C ratio estimated by the average production cost was 1.8537, and the B/C ratio of the supply elasticity was 2.0798. In conclusion, the seed release program of the swimming crab in Chungnam province had economical efficiency. In particular, the consumer surplus was about six times higher than producer surplus. Therefore, this study suggests that the public program such as the seed release program of swimming crab is economically necessary.

노르웨이의 개별어선할당량(IVQ)제도에 관한 연구

남종오,이창수,김수현 한국해양수산개발원 2009 해양정책연구 Vol.24 No.11

This paper examines how Norway with fisheries situations similar with Korea has evolved various quota management systems including the Individual Vessel Quota System suitable to its fisheries circumstances. In detail, this paper introduces three major fisheries regulations that are composed of technical regulation including effort regulation, catch regulation, and structural regulation in order to precisely comprehend various quota management systems with Norway. Furthermore, this paper shows that Norway has, by stages, established unique catch regulation systems appropriate to its fisheries environments on a foundation of sound technical and structural regulations. As examples of it, this paper presents Norwegian maximum quota, group quota, unit quota, and IVQ systems based on scientific and systematic catch reporting and monitoring systems and Agreement with neighboring countries to limit annual harvest by Total Allowable Catch. In conclusion, the Norwegian quota management systems were slightly different with general individual transferable quota system with other nations in aspects of transferability and allocations of quotas as well as centralization of capital. The reason for this is that Norway implemented these quota management systems after profoundly considering a variety of problems with which its fisheries industry was faced. Therefore, this paper suggests that Norwegian IVQ system including other quota systems can provide meaningful implications in Korea which is going to consider implementation of the market-oriented ITQ system suitable to its fisheries circumstances in the near future.

노르웨이 양식산업의 발전 현황 및 시사점

남종오,김수현 한국해양수산개발원 2009 수산정책연구 Vol.2 No.-

다수어업의 갈치 자원평가 및 최적어획량 추정

남종오,조훈석 한국해양과학기술원 2018 Ocean and Polar Research Vol.40 No.4

This study aims to estimate optimal harvests, fishing efforts, and stock levels of hairtail harvested by the large pair bottom trawl, the large otter trawl, the large purse seine, the offshore long line, and the offshore angling fisheries by using the surplus production models and the current value Hamiltonian method. Processes of this study are as follows. First of all, this study estimates the standardized fishing efforts regarding the harvesting of the hairtail by the above five fishing gears based on the general linear model developed by Gavaris. Secondly, this study estimates environmental carrying capacity (k), intrinsic growth rate (r), and catchability coefficient (q) by applying the Clarke·Yoshimoto·Pooley (CY&P) model among various surplus production models. Thirdly, this study estimates the optimal harvests, fishing efforts, and stock levels regarding the hairtail by the current value Hamiltonian method, including the average landing price, the average unit cost, and the social discount rate. Finally, this study attempts a sensitivity analysis to figure out changes in optimal harvests, fishing efforts, and stock levels due to changes in the average landing price and the average unit cost. As results induced by the current value Hamiltonian method, the optimal harvests, fishing efforts, and stock levels regarding the hairtail caught by several fishing gears were estimated as 33,133 tons, 901,080 horse power, and 79,877 tons, respectively. In addition, from the results of the sensitivity analysis, first of all, if the average landing price of the hairtail constantly increases, the optimal harvests of it increase at a decreasing rate, and then harvests finally slightly decrease as a result of decreases in stock levels. Secondly, if the average unit cost of fishing efforts continuously increases, the optimal fishing efforts decreases, but optimal stock levels increase. Optimal harvests start climbing and then decrease continuously due to increases in the average unit cost. In summary, this study suggests that the optimal harvests (33,133 tons) were larger than actual harvests (25,133 tons), but the optimal fishing efforts (901,080 horse power) were much less than estimated standardized fishing efforts (1,277,284 horse power), corresponding to the average of the recent three years (2014−2016). This result implies that the hairtail has been inefficiently harvested and recently overfished due to excessive fishing efforts. Efficient management and conservation policies on stock levels need to be urgently implemented. Some appropriate strategies would be to include the hairtail in the Korean TAC species or to extend the closed fishing season for this species.

노르웨이 수산종자산업 동향

남종오,조정희 한국해양수산개발원 2013 계간 해양수산 Vol.3 No.3

시계열모형을 이용한 굴 생산량 예측 가능성에 관한 연구

남종오,노승국 한국해양과학기술원 2012 Ocean and Polar Research Vol.34 No.2

This paper focused on forecasting a short-term production of oysters, which have been farmed in Korea, with distinct periodicity of production by year, and different production level by month. To forecast a short-term oyster production, this paper uses monthly data (260 observations) from January 1990 to August 2011, and also adopts several econometrics methods, such as Multiple Regression Analysis Model (MRAM), Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) Model, and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). As a result, first, the amount of short-term oyster production forecasted by the multiple regression analysis model was 1,337 ton with prediction error of 246 ton. Secondly, the amount of oyster production of the SARIMA I and II models was forecasted as 12,423 ton and 12,442 ton with prediction error of 11,404 ton and 11,423 ton, respectively. Thirdly, the amount of oyster production based on the VECM was estimated as 10,425 ton with prediction errors of 9,406 ton. In conclusion, based on Theil inequality coefficient criterion, short-term prediction of oyster by the VECM exhibited a better fit than ones by the SARIMA I and II models and Multiple Regression Analysis Model. 본 연구는 우리나라 천해양식 굴의 월별 생산량을 다중회귀분석모형, SARIMA 모형, VECM 모형을 이용하여단기 예측값을 추정해 보았다. 분석 결과, 다중회귀분석모형이 다른 두 모형에 비해상대적으로 실제값과 예측값 사이의 오차가 적은 것으로나타났다. 그러나 예측 적합도 측면에서는 VECM 모형이다중회귀분석모형보다 더 적합한 것으로 나타났다. 하지만 상기 네 모형 모두 예측오차가 큰 것으로 나타났다.10)구체적으로 다중회귀분석모형의 2011년 9월 굴 생산 예측값은 1,337톤으로 실제값인 1,019톤보다 246톤이 많은 것으로 분석되었다. 그러나 그 외 SARIMA I, II 모형과VECM모형은 다중회귀분석모형에 비해 실제값과 예측값사이의 오차가 크게 나타나 향후 실제값과 추정 예측값사이의 월별 오차 검정을 통해 모형을 수정·보완해야 될필요가 있음을 알게 되었다. 다음으로 본 연구의 의의는 굴과 같이 생산의 주기가 연별로 반복되어지고 생산량이 월마다 뚜렷하게 차이가나는 연산별 품목에 대해 월별 생산수준을 고려한 시차변수와 수온 및 강수량 등을 반영한 시계열모형으로 그 양을 단기 예측해 보았다는 데 의의가 있다. 특히 수산부문에서 생산량 예측은 주로 어업별이나 부류별이 아니면 해면어업의 대표어종(고등어, 오징어, 갈치, 조기)에 한정되어 예측 분석이 실시되었으나, 본 연구에서는 연산별로 생산되는 양식품목인 굴의 생산량 예측을 시도해 보았다는점에서 그 의의가 있다. 특히 향후 연산별 어종인 김, 미역, 다시마 등의 생산량 예측 연구에도 본 연구가 참고자료로써 도움이 될 것으로 기대된다. 또한 본 연구의 한계로써 우선, 연별 주기성과 월별·분기별 생산수준이 상이한 굴 생산량의 경우, 시계열 자료자체의 안정성을 확보한 후 예측모형을 구축하다보니 모형의 적합도가 낮게 나타나는 문제가 있었다. 그 결과 단변량 변수를 가지고 예측하는 SARIMA I, II 모형의 경우예측력이 떨어지는 한계가 있었다. 둘째, 굴 생산량을 예측함에 있어 예측에 영향을 줄 수 있는 생물적, 경제적 월별 변수 확보의 어려움을 들 수 있다. 다시 말해, 자연환경적 요인인 수온 및 강수량 외에 굴 생산량에 영향을 줄 수있는 생물학적 요인들의 축적된 자료 확보가 어렵다 보니설명력 높은 모형을 구축하는 데 한계가 있었다. 끝으로굴 생산량 예측모형의 구축에 있어 굴 생산량에 영향을미치는 굴 시설량을 의미있는 월별 변수로 전환할 수 있는 대리변수(예, 잔여시설량)의 선정이 자료수 부족으로분석에 적용되지 못한 점 등을 들 수 있다. 끝으로 향후 연구 과제로써 인과성과 단위근 존재를 전제로 한 구조분석인 VECM의 제약으로 인해 의미 있는변수들이 누락될 수 있는 한계를 극복하기 위해 추가적인변수(생태 및 환경변수, 시설량 대리 변수 등) 확보를 통해 다중회귀분석을 다양하게 접근해 볼 필요가 있다고 판단된다. 추가적으로 본 연구는 추후 out-of sample 분석에기초하여 한 달 앞선 전망(one-month-ahead forecast)에서적어도 12개월 앞선 전망(twelve-month ahead forecast)을시도하여 전망치와 실제치 간에 DM 검정(Diebold and Mariano test)을 통해 모형의 예측력을 진단해 볼 필요가있다(Diebold and Mariano 1995).

시계열 분석을 이용한 굴 가격 예측에 관한 연구

남종오,노승국,박은영 한국해양수산개발원 2012 해양정책연구 Vol.27 No.1

This paper forecasts one-month ahead price of the real landing price of the Korean oyster farmed with high price fluctuations by month. To forecast the one-month ahead real landing price of the farmed oyster, this paper uses monthly data (128 observations) from January 2001 to August 2011 and also adopts several econometrics methods such as the multiple regression model, the autoregressive integrated moving average model, and the vector autoregression model. As a result, the one-month ahead real landing price of the oyster forecasted by the multiple regression model had relatively lower prediction error than ones of ARIMA(2,0,0) and VAR models. Particularly, first, the one-month ahead real landing price of the oyster forecasted by the multiple regression model was 4,907 won per kg with prediction error of about 1.21 won. Second, the one-month ahead price of the ARIMA(2,0,0) model was forecasted as 4,652.13 won per kg with prediction error of approximately 257won. Third, the one-month ahead price of oyster based on the VAR model was estimated as 4,386.43 won per kg with prediction error of 522.57 won. However, basing on root mean squared error, mean absolute error, mean absolute percentage error, and Theil inequality coefficient, the one-month ahead price of oyster by the VAR model was fitter than one by the ARIMA(2,0,0) and multiple regression models. In conclusion, this paper suggests that out-of-sample forecasts as 12months ahead need in order to find the best model among the three models.

VAR 모형을 이용한 크기별 완도 전복가격의 선도가격 분석

남종오,심성현 한국해양과학기술원 2014 Ocean and Polar Research Vol.36 No.4

This study aims to analyze causality among Wando abalone producer prices by size using a vector autoregressive model to expiscate the leading-price of Wando abalone in various price classes by size per kg. This study, using an analytical approach, applies a unit-root test for stability of data, a Granger causality test to learn about interaction among price classes by size for Wando abalone, and a vector autoregressive model to estimate the statistical impact among t-1 variables used in the model. As a result of our leading-price analysis of Wando abalone producer prices by shell size using a VAR model, first, DF, PP, and KPSS tests showed that the Wando abalone monthly price change rate by size differentiated by logarithm were stable. Second, the Granger causality relationship analysis showed that the price change rate for big size abalone weakly led the price change rate for the small and medium sizes of abalone. Third, the vector autoregressive model showed that three price change rates of t-1 period variables statistically, significantly impacted price change rates of own size and other sizes in t period. Fourth, the impulse response analysis indicated that the impulse responses of structural shocks for price change rate for big size abalone was relatively more powerful in its own size and in other sizes than shocks emanating from other sizes. Fifth, the variance decomposition analysis indicated that the price change rate for big size abalone was relatively more influential than the price change rates for medium and small size abalone.