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- 저자 : 김재혁(Kim Jaehyeok) (검색결과 22 건)
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김재혁(Jaehyeok Kim),신동현(Donghyun Shin),조하현(Ha-Hyun Jo) 한국산업경제학회 2015 산업경제연구 Vol.28 No.1
본 논문은 106개 국가를 대상으로 이산화탄소 배출의 장단기 소득탄력성을 추정한 후 권역별, 소득별로 분류하여 이들의 평균적인 수치를 계산 및 비교하였다. World Bank에서 제공하는 106개 국가들의 1인당 GDP와 1인당 CO2 배출량의 시계열적 특성으로 인하여 단위근 및 공적분 검정을 수행하였다. 공적분이 없다는 귀무가설을 기각한 18개 국가는 Dynamic OLS, Fully-Modified OLS 등의 공적분 회귀식을 추정하였고 공적분이 없다는 귀무가설을 기각하지 못한 88개 국가는 ARDL(1,0) 모형을 추정하였다. World Bank 기준에 따라서 권역별 분류는 아시아, 아프리카, 남미, 유럽, 북아프리카 및 중동으로 분류하였고 소득별로는 고소득, 중소득, 저소득 국가로 분류하였다. 그 결과 아프리카 국가들에서 장단기 소득탄력성이 모두 전체 평균보다 높게 나타났고 특히, 장기탄력성이 월등히 높은 수치를 보였다. 반면, 유럽 국가들은 단기 소득탄력성은 (-)로 나타났고 장기 소득탄력성도 평균에 비해 매우 작은 수치를 보였다. 유럽의 결과를 통해서 유럽에서는 소득이 일정 수준 이상일 때, 경제성장이 환경오염을 개선시킨다는 환경 쿠즈네츠곡선가설이 성립할 수 있음을 짐작할 수 있었다. 소득별 분석에서는 소득이 높을수록 장단기 탄력성이 모두 낮게 나타났다. 특히, 고소득 국가에서 장기 소득탄력성이 확연히 낮은 수치를 보여서 장기적으로 소득의 증가가 환경오염을 악화시키는 효과가 미미함을 확인하였다. This paper estimates the short- and long-run income elasticity on carbon dioxide emissions for 106 countries. We make a group of countries by the regional and income criteria following World Bank classifications and calculate the average income elasticity. We divide 106 countries into five regional sectors, Asia & Pacific, Africa, Latin America, Europe and Middle east & North Africa, and into three income groups, High-Income, Middle-Income and Low-Income. Results show that the average short- and long-run elasticity of African countries are higher than the total average, particularly the long-run elasticity is much higher. On the other hand, for European countries, the average short-run elasticity is negative and long-run elasticity is positive, but very low. We can infer that the EKC could arise in European countries from these results. For the income group, the higher the income the lower the short- and long-run elasticity. It implies CO₂ emissions through energy intensive industry account for small portion of the source of economic growth for high income countries.
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1인당 탄소배출 수렴가설 검정 : 105개국 동태적 패널임계 분석
김재혁 ( Jaehyeok Kim ),조하현 ( Ha-hyun Jo ) 한국국제통상학회 2017 국제통상연구 Vol.22 No.1
This study investigates the convergence of per capita carbon emissions and the decoupling of income-emission by estimating the dynamic panel threshold model. The emission convergence and the decoupling of income-emission phenomenon is underpinned by the growth convergence and the EKC hypothesis. Using 105 countries with 1965∼2009 annual large panel data set, we divide the countries into several groups by region, income, industry ratio and clean energy ratio classifications. The convergence holds for total country, Europe, America and MENA in regional group and high-income and middle-income in income group. It also holds for high-industry, high-clean and low-clean group. The income-emission decoupling strongly holds for high-income group and low-clean group and weakly holds for total country and Asia-Pacific group. The threshold income triggering the decoupling is estimated about $14,000 in Asia-Pacific, which is quite economically reasonable level. While threshold income for total country and high-income is estimated about $7,000 which is lower than our expectation. The threshold incomes for low-clean and low-income are even lower, about $540 and $250 for each. Comparing the speed of convergence, we can infer that the speed is fast in total country, America and MENA. At the same time there is no evidence of the convergence in Asia-Pacific, Sub-Saharan Africa and low-income countries. In the near future, there is a high potential that these countries can be heavy emitters. Since they are still on the middle or early stage of economic development global energy policy cooperation is so needed, such as CDM, to minimize the harmful effect on economic growth and to reduce the emissions at the same time.
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신기후체제와 저탄소경제를 위한 한국형 거시계량-3E모형의 구축과 활용 : 국제유가의 파급효과 분석
김재혁 ( Jaehyeok Kim ) 한국국제통상학회 2021 국제통상연구 Vol.26 No.2
In this article, we examine the impact of crude oil price on economy, energy and environment(3E) using the newly built macroeconometric model which is based on general equilibrium concept. Our model is essential tool for analyzing the propagation of crude oil price on 3E, since energy is necessity good for household and production factor for industry. Additionally, environment mainly depends on economic activity and energy consumption, which makes the multidimensional analysis to be needed. To analyze the impact of crude oil price, we perform the policy simulation of a 10% increase in crude oil price on 3E. Private consumption and investment shrink as a result of the economy-wide price increase. Overall industrial production also slows down but the response of individual industrial production is heterogeneous. The weakening of economic activity and energy consumption leads to a decrease in greenhouse gas emissions.
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대외경제충격과 경제정책 불확실성이 한국경제에 미치는 영향
김재혁 ( Jaehyeok Kim ) 한국경제통상학회 2022 경제연구 Vol.40 No.1
In this article, we analyze the impact of external shocks and economic policy uncertainty on Korean economy. As the external shocks, we consider crude oil price and real effective exchange rate and as the economic policy uncertainty, we include that of Korea, US and China. We estimate VAR model using the data during 2001 to 2019 and further analyze the response of Korean economic variables to those shocks. Our analysis presents the following results. First, an appreciation of the Korean currency has a positive effect on the economy by offsetting the negative impact of crude oil price shock. However, an increase in the domestic and the US economic policy uncertainty shocks has a negative effect on the economy by offsetting the positive impact of currency appreciation. The Chinese economic policy uncertainty has little impact on the Korean economy. Second, from a business cycle standpoint, crude oil price and economic policy uncertainty shocks exert a negative effect on the economy in the contraction phase, whereas the Korean currency appreciation shock exerts a positive effect in the expansion phase. Fourth, the results of historical decomposition of shocks indicate that the economic policy uncertainty has a larger effect on the economic growth rate and the industrial productions than oil price and exchange rate shocks.
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